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How Bayh's Retirement Could Make It Harder for Dems to Pass a Health Care Bill

By Philip Klein on 2.15.10 @ 11:26AM

One of the many implications Sen. Evan Bayh's retirement could have is to make it even more difficult for Democrats to pass comprehensive health care legislation. In the broader sense, news of a strong moderate Democrat feeling the need to step aside could make other red state Democrats even more nervous than they already are about reelection and thus uneasy about casting a tough vote. But more specifically, the most obvious Democrats to seek Bayh's seat are Indiana's Democratic congressmen: Reps. Brad Ellsworth, Baron Hill and Joe Donnelly. All of them have already voted for the original version of the House health care bill, and it's unlikely that any of them would want to cast another vote for the bill during a difficult race for the Senate. Liberals may argue that any of them would get slammed for voting for the bill regardless. That's true, but all of these Democrats also voted for the Stupak amendment on abortion, so they'd have some wiggle room to argue that they voted for a bill that prohibited federal funding for abortion, but didn't vote for a bill once that restrictive language was dropped. Ellsworth was actually a co-sponsor of Stupak, and said at the time that he could not vote for the bill if that language wasn't in it. This won't shield them from attacks, but you can definitely see them deciding that the "flip flopper" charge would be better than casting a second vote for a highly unpopular bill.

Keep in mind that the House health care bill passed by a slim 220 to 215 margin the first time around, with 39 Democrats voting against it. Since then, the one Republican who voted for it -- Joseph Cao -- has indicated that he would not support the bill a second time around given the weaker language on abortion. Florida Rep. Robert Wexler already retired prematurely. Factor in Jack Murtha's death, and Pelosi is down to 217 votes. If Hill, Ellsworth or Donnelly defect while running for Senate, she's down to 216 and the route to passage is even further in doubt.

View all comments (10) | Leave a comment

Doug Pettut| 2.15.10 @ 12:57PM

There isn't a change in hell the the dumbocrates are going to pass anything. Morons all of them.

HoosierRedMan| 2.15.10 @ 1:04PM

Bayh isn't a moderate but likes Hoosiers to think he is. He is a classic bait-and-switch politican who postures moderation at home and practices liberalism in D.C.

There is no chance that Baron Hill will be our next senator...he won't even be re-elected for Congressman with the stiff opposition he's facing.

In fact, Indiana will not elect any democrat for senator this fall regardless of who the candidate might be.

SeeingRed| 2.15.10 @ 1:27PM

Good time to plug this new fresh faced conservative for IN: Marlin Stutzman
http://www.youtube.com/marlins.....DQfxoSIaic

SeeingRed| 2.15.10 @ 1:27PM

Good time to plug this new fresh faced conservative for IN: Marlin Stutzman
http://www.youtube.com/marlins.....DQfxoSIaic

Spicy Joker| 2.15.10 @ 1:30PM

So it looks like Dan Coates will get his seat back.

Franklin| 2.15.10 @ 1:39PM

Per previous 2 articles on Bye, er Bayh:

Ok, nevermind. I'm convinced that it's better that the Democrats run away rather than stay and be beaten in November.

Government Mess| 2.15.10 @ 1:46PM

I love it! Run liberals Run, we will vote you out anyways as soon as possible. Democrats will be slaughtered (figuratively speaking of course, lol) for many elections cycles to come! Great piece and keep up the good fight my friend!

rrpjr| 2.15.10 @ 2:08PM

How is Bayh a "moderate"?

tractah| 2.15.10 @ 3:11PM

The "progressive" Democrats running the Washington are the most threatening group of politicians that constitutional America has ever faced. Their one and only goal during Obamas (one) term in office is to transform this country from a Republic to a socialist union, RULED by an elite few rather than governed by all.

Siegfried X| 2.16.10 @ 8:08AM

I must disagree totally with the vote counting. Nancy Pelosi has 255 potential "yes" votes (Democrats), not 220.

We are in a totally different political situation now, post-Scott Brown. Last year's vote doesn't give a clue of how congress would vote this year.

Democrats now realize there will be a lot less of them in the next congress, so this is their last chance to pass a left-wing health care bill. If Obama Care passes, it is likely to be by a very different group in Congress. It would likely be the furthest left holding their noses and voting for their last chance to pass Democratic health care.