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Daily Must-Reads
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The Longest War?
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The Spectacle Blog
In an interview with Chris Wallace this past Sunday, Sarah Palin made the suggestion that if Obama went to war with Iran, it could possibly save his presidency politically. The idea arose last week in an NRO column by Daniel Pipes, titled “How to Save the Obama Presidency: Bomb Iran.” Pipes’s prediction is that military strikes against Iran’s nuclear capacities would have the effect of bolstering Obama’s perceived toughness. He cites polls that indicate the American people would support such action against Iran. He then predicts: “after a strike Americans will presumably rally around the flag, sending that number much higher.”
Looking at historical presidential approval ratings, I am somewhat doubtful as to whether Obama would receive a lasting boost in approval. Regardless of the Iranian nuclear capability, such military action would have to be sold in the same way that the 2003 Iraq intervention was: a preventive military operation. 72 percent of Americans supported the Iraq war in 2003, yet there was no approval spike for George W. Bush even after the initial invasion was shown to be successful.
An Iranian military strike would be sold to the American public as a bombing, and hypothetically free of casualties and boots on the ground, which would make it substantially different from the Iraq example. Proponents of the invasion could also avoid using the “n-word” — nation-building. But even in other military operations, such as the April, 1986 bombing of Libya, President Reagan did not get much of a boost for that strike and quickly dipped after Iran-Contra. President Clinton’s numbers mainly stayed flat during the 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia.
Even if President Obama did receive a boost in approval after a successful military operation, that would not conclusively save his presidency. President George H.W. Bush saw his approval numbers jump to over 80 percent during the Gulf War in 1991, but then watched his support fall off as the 1992 recession dragged on. In 1992, he was kicked out of office while only receiving 37.5 percent of the popular vote.
The American people are already war-weary and are doubting the president’s ability to command the military. I do not mean to imply that bombing Iran would not cause a jump in approval for the president, but military actions are risky business, and the operational as well as political outcomes are far from certain.
View all comments (62) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Brian O'Connell
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/02/09/palin-pipes-iran-and-rallying
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The Ombudsman| 2.9.10 @ 5:25PM
This is the same Pipes who all but predicted that Bush would bomb Iran if McCain lost.
William R| 2.9.10 @ 5:40PM
Iran could possibly close the Straights of Hormuz which would choke off the worlds oil supply throwing our already fragile economy in a tailspin. Pipes is crazier than a bat out of hell. The fact that National Review gives this lunatic space only shows how far that once great magazine has fallen under the current regime.
Thorvald| 2.9.10 @ 11:19PM
Not to go after bad guys because they then might try to do us harm is just specious. You go after them BECAUSE they might try to do us harm. When the bad guys are "Twelver" Shiites, and they're telling you they're coming for you, you want me to sit on my hands? Are you trying to be another Lindbergh?
Bottom line: we don't have to occupy Iran. Pat Buchanan can rest easy. The Jews might lose anyway, so Ron Paul will be happy. Just leave Iran to the majority who oppose the ayatollahs. Bomb the ayatollahs. Use a .338 or a .50. Flamethrower, depillatory, w/e! Just remove them.
William R| 2.10.10 @ 12:18AM
Iran is no threat to the United States. None! We spend more on our BS war in Iraq in one month than Iran spends in a year on defense. Ehud Barak, Israels former Prime Minister, current Defense Minister and the most decorated soldier in Israels history says Iran is no threat to Israel.
We have to justify our Military Industrial complex somehow. I'm old enough to remember January 17th, 1961 when Dwight Eisenhower used his farewell address to the nation to war the American people about the dangers of this complex.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y06NSBBRtY
Save the Planet| 2.10.10 @ 10:56AM
How about we bomb the Jewish terrorists who have detoated our futures and annihilated our society with Banker swindles, corporate fraud and premeditated grand theft. The zionist extremists' crimes make the Islamists look like children. Flamethrowers, micronukes... smash Tel Aviv and burn it to the ground. Just remove those perpetrators and their perennial extortion and black mail. Sooner the better.
Lance| 2.10.10 @ 8:47PM
LOL.. "twelver".. oh jeez.. people seriously stop listening to that fox news moron Glenn Beck and go out and do some of your own research.. rather than being SPOON FED.. "twelver" nonsense. sheesh.
Alan Brooks| 2.10.10 @ 8:51AM
"fact that National Review gives this lunatic space only shows how far that once great magazine has fallen under the current regime. "
Oh, for the days of WFB.
The Derb would be perfect as head of NR.
Ken (Old Texican)| 2.9.10 @ 5:46PM
My guess is that W. was weary...of us being "war weary".
Folks, we NEEDED a good arse-whipping under communists, (pardon the shorthand), before we could stack our "stuff".
Get a couple thousand...or more..... dead Americans here at home due to Obama's stupidity.
Those "man caused disasters" are almost guaranteed, and I am concerned that Obama could use it wrongfully.
Stay alert, folks.
A. Schickelgruber| 2.9.10 @ 6:27PM
Will somebody teach Ms. Palin how to correctly pronounce proper nouns and to tutor her about the countries she speaks about. It would also be appreciated if someone tutors this "woman" how to speak grammatically correct English and not to "squeak" but speak. If Daniel Shlomo Pipes advocates war and bloodshed for another country (he holds dual nationality; Israeli and US) he should also be heroic enough to wear the uniform and fight alongside the unlucky soldiers. I also ask Mr. Chris Scheiss-Wallace to be courageous enough to don the uniform and to in turn also ask such "heroes" like Limbaugh, Hannity, Boortz, Billy Crystal, Douglas Feith, Kagan, Weimer-Savage A..lucht, Glen Erbrechtesser-Beck, et.al., to wear the uniform and go to war against imagined enemies. President Obama (perhaps the most popular President in US History, and definitely one of the most respected Statesman of our time) does not need any appreciation from such scoundrels and money-minded scum bags. For the record, President Obama will very easily win the next elections too.
A. D. Schickelgruber
E. Braun| 2.9.10 @ 6:30PM
Missed your fruit smoothie this afternoon, again?
No Brawn| 2.10.10 @ 11:00AM
NYT middle east bureau chief's son just enrolled in the IDF. Guess we'll get even more "objective, impartial" reporting than that zionist-owned rag has been spewing for years already.
Ken (Old Texican)| 2.9.10 @ 6:42PM
Sorry Adolph,
If mr obama wins...heh..... YOU LOSE.
We productive Americans will cut off your power and your heating/cooling...and your grocery supply trucks.
Bottom line, we will quit supporting you. Cheers.
Klaus| 2.9.10 @ 6:54PM
I am just a reader of this article and the views. This "texican' sounds like the mouse "speedy gonzales" with his words. In Deutchland and surrounding countries people scorn these type of people (tyrannized by whip holders from over the border) as being willing tools, puppets and modern slaves. Why are you unhappy? Go and learn something Senor!
ZerObama| 2.9.10 @ 7:14PM
Klaus, Old Texican is just fine--you can return to reading your mentor's book, Mein Kampf. Please do.
wwwexler| 2.9.10 @ 7:10PM
"...President Obama will very easily win the next ELECTIONS too." You trying to tell us something, Commie boy?
Forget the fruit smoothie--you need a giant enema, for your brain.
JP| 2.9.10 @ 8:04PM
"President Obama (perhaps the most popular President in US History, and definitely one of the most respected Statesman of our time) does not need any appreciation from such scoundrels and money-minded scum bags."
And then he began to govern....
Actually, Carter had higher approval ratings than Obama did when he was inaugerated. Carter topped out at 69% in June 1977. Obama's ratings were sinking before the 4th of Jluy.
Andy| 2.9.10 @ 6:33PM
I presume the majority of these "scum bags" and scoundrels named are Jews. One person forgotten to be mentioned is Joe Liberman who is another advocate of war if only the interests of Israel is at stake. As a Jew he knows what he is doing. This newspaper just as eight eight percent of the media in the US belongs to Jews.
Taj| 2.10.10 @ 11:05AM
Its why the article is called "Rallying Round the Flag"- the ZIONIST flag with the hexagrammaton splatted in the center. Its more war for the Rothschilds and the One World Gov. Love the fact that Ahmedinejad is himself jewish. Always knew he was working for the zionists. His self-destructive, overly damaging comments that hurt Iran terribly, only make sense in that context.
FYI- they own 96% of the US media when you include their crypto puppets who also march to their tune.
Alan| 2.9.10 @ 6:41PM
Let me get this straight: the American Spectator wrote an entire article analyzing a private citizen's belief that bombing Iran would help Obama's approval numbers? Is this a joke? What a waste of space and my time.
Also:
"72 percent of Americans supported the Iraq war in 2003, yet there was no approval spike for George W. Bush even after the initial invasion was shown to be successful."
Can we get a fact-checker here?
irritated| 2.9.10 @ 9:54PM
According to the Wall Street Journal graph of Bush's approval rating from around January 2009, you can plainly see that there was a small bump in his approval, but more to the point, the war slowed, briefly, his continuing slide to 30%.
irritated| 2.9.10 @ 9:56PM
http://www.clipsandcomment.com.....ght-years/
IT| 2.10.10 @ 11:08AM
Yup. And the neocon propaganda sheet WSJ is just exactly the source that any thinking person should heed.
Sane American| 3.21.10 @ 2:39PM
As opposed to Lew Rockwell and Antiwar.com?
For the non-thinking, non-intervennies?
Viktor| 2.9.10 @ 6:43PM
I have been reading about how these conservative "philosophers" chiefly belonging to the newly created "NO party" have been demeaning each and every nation in the world. Someone needs ot tell these imbeciles that there are other ocuntries apart from Canada and Mexico and "little" England. Also that U.K., Britain and the British Isles are one and the same little country also called "evil England." They have been advocating Trade Embargo against any country they are told to dislike (by the mafia from New York...ninety nine percent of whom hold dual citizenship and extra-territorial loyalty). I say to those countries who are boycotted just one thing: "What does the US produce and export?"....Beef (unwholesome with steroid) some wheat and some other grains. What and which Industrial items, what and which Electronic and Engineering item?
ZerObama| 2.9.10 @ 7:16PM
Is that you, Daphne? Sure smells like you.
ggoblue| 2.9.10 @ 7:18PM
dont worry, president octopussy wont do anything to iran...and they know it.
Patriot| 2.9.10 @ 7:19PM
Obama will just screw it up, like Carter screwed up his attempt to rescue the hostages in Iran.
Democrats are incompetent.
Alan| 2.9.10 @ 7:31PM
I agree. We need to get a competent man back in the White House who knows how to manage a war, like George W. Bush.
Interested Conservative| 2.9.10 @ 7:41PM
Political and policy questions aside (I realize that's hard to do), but the sheer facts are unusual. For the last twenty to thirty years, it is almost safer for military personal to have been at war than at peace.
Only slightly more service personnel were killed during the eight years of W, than during the eight years of Bill C.
Lots of reasons, but "how to manage a war" may be one of them.
Again, regardless of your policy or political views, the numbers are what they are.
Larson| 2.10.10 @ 11:12AM
Left, right, Dem, GOP- all fake concepts created to fool the sheeple into believing there is a difference between who actually controls and runs things at the very top. And what a successful ruse its been. Most of these bimbos STILL dont know there is no difference. There is only ONE puppeteer with a myriad of masks.
Robert| 2.9.10 @ 7:48PM
El Texicano, and his compadres should know one thing; that no one in the sane world either listens or believes in nonsenses printed in the US. Messrs. Scheissman, Scheissburg, Scheissburger and Scheissberg and Scheissesser comes along in many ways and in various clothings. He came to the US centuries ago with his luggage of crime, chaos and corruption to turn the US into his Palestine and is now crowned with success. He makes us die for him and is full of success. He mentions himself as "WE" everywhere he speaks and anywhere he lives. He is more American than the common indivdual. He regularly visits his "promised" land to vote and to invest his money over there and to direct political traffic. Stupid people who are uneducated most foolishly think that the International Jew is European or at least an Indo-European. He is NOT. He is an Afro-Asian!! He directs people like "speedy Gonzales" and others pretending to be "WE."
ares-san| 2.10.10 @ 1:54AM
Huh?
Crawl out of your bomb shelter dude.
Alan| 2.9.10 @ 7:48PM
I'm hesitant to get into any kind of a debate with someone who honestly thinks George W. Bush was a competent war president, but just to be clear, your facts are dead wrong: http://www.factcheck.org/askfa.....ntons.html
Thorvald| 2.9.10 @ 11:26PM
Factcheck dot org?!?
Right, NPR, more like it.
It is kind of touching, really, the faith these children have in their nannies.
Assume, out of charity, you are an adult: you've never fact-checked them, have you? Dolt.
Alan| 2.9.10 @ 7:49PM
The above post is in response to "Interested Conservative," btw.
Interested Conservative| 2.9.10 @ 8:12PM
Again - Regardless of the policy or politics, the facts are not "dead wrong". They are not equal, but they are wildly different, and rather than looking at your source, look at the congressional report it is based on.
I suspect the greatest factor is the sheer size of the military (i.e. much smaller during the Bush years), and simple statistical causes (i.e. rate of deaths/yr./all causes), but the facts are the facts - the casualty rates for the recent war is much lower than prior wars, and the casualty rates during "peacetime" is also much improved. To de-politicize it to some extent, the numbers were even worse during the "peacetime" years under Reagan and Bush 41, so Bill gets his share of credit as well.
Again, many, many reasons to question whether W was a "competent war president", but I wonder if you're letting your views of simply going to war cloud the results which followed from that decision, however objectionable you find it.
Interested Conservative| 2.9.10 @ 8:21PM
Note - should read . . . "NOT wildly different . . ."
Intereted Conservative| 2.9.10 @ 8:29PM
PS - Here's the source material:
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf
Ron Turner| 2.9.10 @ 11:22PM
Good post Brian. Pipes advice is absurd. Bombing a country to look tough is just plain dumb, and completely irresponsible. It would only confirm the President's weakness. Palin really looks silly parroting Mr. Pipes.
Thorvald| 2.9.10 @ 11:29PM
The enemy are Twelver Shiites. Twelver Shiites.
To latter-day Lindberghs, the Buchanans, Dr. Paul: As my T-shirt and bumper-sticker say, "He's over there, so they won't cut off your head over here."
Red Phillips | 2.10.10 @ 2:09PM
Thorvald, I have asked this on here many many times and have yet to get a serious reply. You say "He's over there, so they won't cut off your head over here." Would you please work that out for me? Please explain to me the realistic scenario whereby large numbers of Islamic Jihadist arrive on our shores (because we aren't "fighting them over there") and proceed to cut off the heads of Americans. Are they going to paratroop in? What air force is going to bring them? Arrive by boat? What Navy? Just details like that is what I want to know. I anxiously await your reply. Thanks.
Geodata| 2.10.10 @ 11:17AM
When applying the "antisemitic smear" against the oppostion gives you total immunity to say and commit any crime, why hold back? The jews in this country have gotten so brazen and emboldened with this weapon, they will stop at nothing- and be pitied as 'victims' afterward. And then sue their targets for reparation.
Jim Hlavac | 2.9.10 @ 11:55PM
Let us not forget a few things:
1. Iraq did not seize our diplomats for 444 days, and Saddam did not refer to us with each breath as the great satan. They themselves, the Iran government, say they are at war with us -- let us do it.
2. Iraq did not threaten to blow Israel off the map. Iran does so near daily.
3. Iran's people are yearning to be free -- help them.
4. We had the UN on our side in Iraq in the beginning, and Clinton blew that. It was status quo for eight years under Billy. Bush II had 12 resolutions on his side - -but hey, what are the words of the UN and the EU worth?
5. Stop tying to relive the past, what G. Bush I or II did in Iraq is irrelevant to Iran today.
6. If Obama went in and said "this is for screwing with our hostages, Israel, our troops, and the world at large," he might well get a boost -- and since his job is foreign policy, well, people would be more than for it. Only the rabid 20% of our population which hates our country will be pissed, but 80% will rally to the cause of eliminating one of the most dangerous regimes in the world.
7. Those who think that doing nothing, or blaming G. Bush II for it all, are not unlike those in America in about 1935 - -"oh, it's not our problem."
8. Iran seize the Straits of Hormuz? For how long? A few hours? How long would it take to sink the Iranian navy, and blow its air force from the skies? We did in France's Vichy fleet and the Italian fleet at Taranto in a few hours, does anyone really think that a US Carrier group today is going to take much longer to free up that tiny stretch of water? You jest? Iran's navy? Rubber duckies to the rescue, I'm sure.
Let the president go postal on the terrorist regimes of the world, and stay the dickens out of domestic policy and he might pull his butt out of the swamp he's put it in.
But, no matter what he does, the next president will still have to deal with it -- for Iran is not going away as a threat until we eliminate that regime.
Let me quote Reagan, "the bombing starts in five minutes."
Cowards Out!| 2.10.10 @ 11:22AM
"Iraq did not threaten to blow Israel off the map. Iran does so near daily."
Iran is NO threat to MY country, USA.
Iran never threatened to blow MY COUNTRY, the USA, off the map. If you want to fight for a foreign land at the expense of your own? Go to it little penis- but dont volunteer Americans to die for a disloyal, foreign clique of zionist abusers who treat their hosts with contempt.
Join the IDF, put your money where your mouth is or keep it closed.
Red Phillips | 2.10.10 @ 2:13PM
"Iran's people are yearning to be free -- help them."
By killing a sizable number of them?
"Iraq did not threaten to blow Israel off the map. Iran does so near daily."
Really? Daily? Source please. Thanks.
wwwexler| 2.11.10 @ 3:03PM
As if cowards like you have any solutions. You don't give a damn about the Iranian people--you're just a chicken sh!t.
martin j smith| 2.10.10 @ 8:08AM
Somewhere is the depths of the Israeli intellgence counsels are discussions of the nature of Iran's threat ( and this is very important the ties between Iran and Russia and Chiina ) These disucsions may or may not be shared with the US mainly because of the perceived unreliability of the Obama administration. But, as I and others have said most of politics is theater both for the voters and for our allies and enemies alike. So its equally possible that there are shared information about the situation. It is not about saving Obama's presidency, it is about preventing a catastrophe. Think outside your triangle. Time will tell if we have a buch of true idiots ( that is what you see is what you got ) or if there is more than meets the eye. I would not put any money on either of these options. Too risky.
Andy| 2.10.10 @ 10:00AM
Play the war card to improve Obama's approval rating? If that's not being a warmonger then I don't know what is. Sarah Palin, being a Christian, should check her bible where it says "Blessed is the peacemaker".
Proud Muslim| 2.10.10 @ 11:26AM
Sarah Palin is a crypto plant. Please check the geneology (Scotland Sun herald is a good reference)
Her parents are jewish and she is as phony a Christian as the born again W.
wwwexler| 2.11.10 @ 3:05PM
Palin was merely pointing out that Obama may use the war card--not that he should use it. Dope.
Poor reading comprehension.
martin j smith| 2.10.10 @ 10:43AM
I have heard so oftern the so called pacifists use the "warmonger card. Go back to 1930'a of Great Britian when Churchill was trying warn his countryman of the dangers that re-arming Nazi Germany presented. Oh yeah, her was a war monger alright. Let me but my view bluntly: I do not trust Pacifists and appeasers at all. Bush and Obama--one bad and one terrible leader for a wartime era. One was inarticulate and passive ( and sneaky ) the other very articulate, lying thru his teeth with very at best irrational destructive policies. Let us hope that we get a president who are neither of these men.
Red Phillips | 2.10.10 @ 2:21PM
Martin, true pacifism is limited to a few small religious sects (Quakers, Mennonites, etc.). Almost no one accused of pacifism is actually a philosophical pacifist. The use of that term is misdirection at best, and a slur at worst. What is much in evidence these days on the paleo and libertarian right and what you are reacting to is non-interventionism. That is not the same thing as pacifism, and I suspect you know that. If you don't you should.
Uruk| 2.10.10 @ 11:29AM
Martian,
Get educated. Dig into the old Readers Guide to Periodical Lit etc and you'll find it was Bush, Sr, the Rothschilds, Warburgs and Schiffs themselves who underwrote the Nazi industrial base. For God sakes, at this stage of the game- cant we all do some research 101 and cease being fools??
martin j smith| 2.10.10 @ 11:48AM
Uruk you sound just like Liberal Reader. You tone, your arrogance, your snotty disrespect for others views. If you want to dig into the readers guide to periodical lit, go right ahead--be your guest. But, I think you are another example of a troll and whose point of view I totally disagree and do not trust at all people who you support in defending this country. Pacifism has show itself to be bankrupt and it will not change. The Obama administrations handling of terrorism so far has gotten even Democrats scared such as in NYC. Finally and this is the telling point of pacifism today, they do not realize that they moral duty not only to defend their position, but to prove it works. So far, pacifists do neither. They just call their critics "war mongers" Evidence is clear that Obama' appeasement has failed see: Iran,Russia, China,Venezuela. The majority of Americans do not buy it.
Pingback| 2.10.10 @ 12:08PM
The American Spectator : AmSpecBlog : Palin, Pipes, Iran, and … | Iran Today links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 2.13.10 @ 2:37PM
The Difference Between Approval and Appreciation links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Gena Methuen | 2.20.10 @ 2:18AM
“For while the Zionists try to make the rest of the world believe that the national consciousness of the Jew finds its satisfaction in the creation of a Palestinian state, the Jews again slyly dupe the dumb goyim. It doesn’t even enter their heads to build up a Jewish state for the purpose of living there; all they want is a central organisation for their international world swindle, endowed with its own sovereign rights and removed from the intervention of other states: a haven for convicted scoundrels and a university for budding crooks.” [4]
Adolf Hitler