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The Spectacle Blog
As the Capitol reacts to the death of Jack Murtha and remembers his legacy, it's worth pointing out that the news will make it even harder for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to secure the 218 votes needed to pass health care legislation.
Back in November, the House passed its health care bill by a narrow 220 to 215 margin, with 39 Democrats voting against it. Since then, the one Republican who voted for it -- Joseph Cao -- has indicated that he would not support the bill a second time around given the weaker language on abortion in the Senate version. In addition, Florida Rep. Robert Wexler already retired prematurely. Factor in Murtha's death today, and Pelosi is down to 217 votes. This doesn't even take into account the pro-life Democrats led by Bart Stupak who are prepared to vote "no." While there's been talk that Pelosi had some votes in reserve the first time around, the point is that those members felt they needed to vote against the bill -- and the political environment has deteriorated substantially for Democrats since then.
With Murtha's death, the Cook Political Report has now moved his Pennsylvania district to the "toss up" category. If Republicans can field a good candidate and gain the seat, it would further reinforce the fears among Democrats in swing districts and make them less likely to jump on board with Pelosi. Chris Cillizza suggests the most likely date for the special election would be May 18. The special election to replace Wexler is scheduled for April 13, and is expected to go Democrat.
UPDATE: Another complicating factor is Rep. Neil Abercrombie. The Hawaii Democrat announced early last month that he would resign Feb. 28 run for governor. However, in his statement announcing his resignation, he said that he had ensured Pelosi that he’d be around to continue supporting the health care bill. Back when he made that statement, Scott Brown hadn’t won yet, and thus the end of this month seemed like plenty of time to finalize the health care bill. Now that the timeline has been pushed back, perhaps he’d postpone the effective date of his resignation if Pelosi still needed his vote.
UPDATE II: An earlier version of this post suggested that Democrats would be unable to pass the bill with 217 votes, but as a reader points out there's still the theoretical chance of passing it 217-216. So I changed the wording.
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Flee| 2.8.10 @ 4:19PM
Will there be the same kind of tearful and joyous sendoff for Murtha that there was for Uncle Teddy? Can someone do a study to see who brought home more bacon for their state? My bet would be on Murtha.
Nick| 2.8.10 @ 4:34PM
First, the Swimmer. Now Murtha.
Maybe God is a Republican.
San Fran Nan better not get any more facelifts in the near future.
Moishe| 2.8.10 @ 5:12PM
From your mouths to G-d's ear!
MikeN| 2.8.10 @ 5:49PM
Your numbers don't add up. Switch Cao, and take away Wexler and Murtha, and you still have a 217-216 win.
Ken (Old Texican)| 2.8.10 @ 8:08PM
Folks,
Mr. Murtha has been judged...by our Creator.
(uh, no bullfeathers accepted.) heh
Mr. Ted Kennedy has been judged by our Creator.
(No bullfeathers accepted).
Each of us will be judged by our Creator.
Each of us has lived out our lives in the most wonderful society the world has ever known, even with its warts.
Lock and load to keep it.
Ret. Marine| 2.9.10 @ 6:44AM
I'm with you on this one Ken, keep'm stacked and at the ready, it's not over till the wrinkle faced nanny is held down for another botox treatment. I fear her face is going to break one day, in front of the whole world what an embarrasment she's turned out to be..
bob| 2.8.10 @ 8:31PM
I really doubt that God looks kindly on people who celebrate the death of their fellow man.
Nick| 2.8.10 @ 11:48PM
bob,
Try reading His book sometime.
Lots of killing of the wicked in there.
Gordon| 2.9.10 @ 10:48AM
That said, and coming from a staunch conservative, He is not in favor of men, all of whom are wicked, acting as judge. Nor do we do the conservative movement any favors when we stoop to the level of the viciousness displayed on lib sites upon the passing of any conservative.
Nick| 2.9.10 @ 12:46PM
Gordon,
Maybe you should re-read His book of Judges.
And if you are comparing my comments to the vile things posted on lefty sites, you also need to re-read those.
wws| 2.8.10 @ 8:44PM
"I've never killed a man, but I've read many an obituary with a great deal of satisfaction."
— Clarence Darrow
Deborah D| 2.9.10 @ 5:54AM
Many of us thought divine intervention would help save the country ... He does work in mysterious ways.
May God rest his soul.
Ret. Marine| 2.9.10 @ 6:50AM
I guess our maker really does have a sense of humor, he took Ted K. and now Jack M. and I keep wondering who's next. Good things do come in three's.
Mr. Murtha was once a Marine, I lost respect and any concerns for him the minute he acussed his fellow devil dog's with murder for political gains. I hope he does rest in peace but, my gut is telling me a different story.
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