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The Spectacle Blog
There are a number of ways to look at today’s budget numbers. The White House, for instance, wants to focus on the idea that the fiscal year 2011 deficit is projected to be lower than the 2010 deficit. But that was largely expected already based on the assumptions that stimulus spending would wind down down, the economy would be better, and much of the Bush tax cuts would expire. That’s why I think a good way of looking at today’s announcement is: how does it stack up against what the Obama administration was projecting last year?
It turns out that in the budget it announced last February, the White House Office of Management and Budget projected cumulative deficits of $6.97 trillion for fiscal years 2010 through 2019, but in the budget it announced today, the comparable number swelled to $9.09 trillion — or an increase of about $2.1 trillion. In fiscal year 2011 alone, the deficit is now projected to be $1.27 trillion, compared to the year ago estimate of $912 billion — an increase of $355 billion for next year alone.
In its mid-session review last August, the Obama administration had already revised some of its earlier forecasts upward. Today’s projections tend to be higher than the August estimates in the first few years of the budget window, and then a bit lower in the later years. Overall, today’s estimates for 2010 to 2019 are still higher by $35 billion than what was projected in August.
As far as the cumulative debt held by the public, it’s now projected to reach a staggering $17.5 trillion in 2019, compared to an estimate of $15.37 trillion a year ago.
I put together the chart below to demonstrate how today’s estimates compare to last February’s projections by the OMB.
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More Blog Posts by Philip Klein
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/02/01/wh-sees-cumulative-deficts-21
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Jeff | 2.1.10 @ 11:27AM
I'm glad to see the Democrats fighting to dispell that myth about them being the party of tax and spend ...
The GOP should put out some ads saying, "We are the party of No, No More Spending and Taxing"
that way when Obama tries the old party of No slur people will hear "the party of No more spending and taxing" ...
S.L. Toddard| 2.1.10 @ 12:01PM
The GOP Deficit Hawk: a strange breed of bird that squawks loudly during Democrat administrations and hibernates during Republican ones.
Pingback| 2.1.10 @ 12:04PM
White House Sees Cumulative Deficits $2.1 Trillion Higher Than It Projected a Year Ag links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Bob| 2.1.10 @ 1:57PM
Philip, I notice you make no comment that the deficit consists of two major parts -- spending AND revenue. You guys always ignore the revenue part and that conveniently gives your inept and uneducated readers a mistaken impression -- that it is spending alone that is causing the budget deficit.
Since tax cuts are NOT stimulative to the economy as I have shown on numerous occasions, the only way to bring down a deficit this large is to BOTH reduce entitlement spending and increase revenue (i.e., taxes). Neither one alone can do the job. Given that entitlement spending plus military is about 3/4ths of the budget, that is where you must cut.
So why don't you and your few knowledgeable friends call for large cuts in entitlements which would minimize the tax increases necessary to do the job. Of course that means Grandma will die and not eat as much, but that is what must be done.
If you are true fiscal conservatives, you will be objective on this budget issue and call strongly for entitlement reform and not bad mouth minor increases in taxes. Perhaps, rather than showing charts that compare previous estimates to current estimates, you can focus on solving this issue. For example, what kinds of cuts and tax increases would be necessary to get rid of the debt in 20 years. Have you done that calculation? Do you have the courage to present that here?
If the Republicans were still in power, we would still not get spending cuts -- and you know it. The last 8 years have proven that. You can't reduce entitlements and get the senior vote -- the only segment of the population in which Republicans beat Obama.
That is the most cogent argument for term limits. So let's get on board, call for realistic cuts in spending, and get Republicans to support cuts in entitlements and the military.
Pete| 2.1.10 @ 3:47PM
Il Deuce and Bob Almighty on the same string? This must be the new progressive hot button issue.
aware| 2.1.10 @ 4:52PM
Bob, look yourself up a few charts on pension pay out, state and federal, and entitlements over the next ten years and see if it's possible to raise taxes that much. It's too late to stop the economic disaster that is inherent in welfare states.
It is naive to believe politicians would really cut spending when that's how they win the popularity contests that pass for elections now. And the main issue decided in these contests is whether we go 40 or 90 MPH down the road ruin and regret.
Only a complete fool would believe that the political hacks would ever "reform", "means test", or do anything even bordering on honest. They have proven they can't be trusted with anything and will drive us into a catastrophe no chart can capture before they are done.
I got a bad feeling that will take more than one or two elections to make go away. Only thing going away is liberty, mine and yours, my friend.
Bob| 2.1.10 @ 6:16PM
Aware, I agree with you totally. Actually, I've done the basic calculations and each household currently owes over $100,000 to pay off the debt. The effective tax rate is currently around 20%. There are currently about 114 million households. 40% pay little or no federal taxes. That means the average for tax paying households is about $170,000. In constant dollars, to pay off this debt in 20 years, that means each tax paying household must be assessed an EXTRA $8,500 per year. The average household pays about $22,000 in federal taxes per year. That means an across the board tax increase of about 39%. And that assumes no more deficits from now on.
With the projected deficits over the next 10 years, you'd have to collect about twice that meaning a 78% increase in household taxes. If the yahoos here realized the extent of the problem, there is no way they could be fiscal conservatives and say taxes should not be increase. It seems that nobody on either the right or the left actually looks at the numbers. In fact, when you present data, it seems you can't find anyone that had even high school math.
Pingback| 2.1.10 @ 5:55PM
Cutting Back? No Way: More Outrageous Spending in Obama’s White House… Where Everybo links to this page. Here’s an excerpt: