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The Spectacle Blog
Going into President Obama’s first State of the Union speech, Gallup noted that annual speeches to Congress rarely affect presidential approval ratings (in large part because the audience tends to be skewed toward those who already support him). It turns out that despite his oratorical skills, our current president is not different in this respect from his predecessors.
We now have data from Gallup tracking polls based on interviews taken in the three days following President Obama’s speech on Wednesday, and his ratings now stand at 48 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval — exactly where he was in the three days of polling proceeding the speech.
What this tells us is that Obama has reached the point in his presidency at which he’ll no longer be able to boost public opinon through talking — he’s being judged based on his objective performance. Monthly job reports will have much more impact on public perception than anything he can say or proposal he could make.
View all comments (18) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Philip Klein
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/01/31/obama-gets-no-bump-from-sotu-s
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Reaganite Republican | 1.31.10 @ 2:24PM
Oh, you mean he'll actually have to perform in some measurable way... instead of just laying another layer of BS on us?
Comprehensive political collapse looms...
Bob| 1.31.10 @ 2:28PM
Philip, you've missed this one by a mile. Obama has NEVER been able to boost public opinion through talking while he has been in the presidency. There is no change now. If you take a look at the polling dynamics, the main issue is that people feel poorer than before -- and the current occupant of the White House will suffer. It doesn't matter who that is. Look at Reagan. After his first two years, his approval rating dropped to 35% in 1983 -- or did you conveniently forget about that?
Remember that the people AmSpec represents are a VERY small part of our population -- less than 20%. Most people are just concerned with their families, their homes, their jobs, and their safety. It's that simple if you actually look at the data. The economy is rebounding and that means that jobs will grow -- albeit slowly. It has little to do with Obama -- it's just part of the economic cycle. Thus, patting yourself on the back with the title of your post shows short term thinking with a lack of real perspective.
Mary Louise| 1.31.10 @ 2:56PM
PK, you can only give the same speech so many times.
He's 'eloquenced' himself right into a static position. Now, it's likely he's going to start to annoy those independents who were hope and change hopefuls. In fact, if he doesn't quit over exposing himself, his face will likely become a liability, and maybe even his voice.
"Feh," said Montaigne "on the eloquence that leaves one craving substance."
Oh, and the slightly peeved look is not a good look for him, IMO.
I just got off the phone w/Italy -yes the whole Country. :) They like Obama.
I'm acutally glad they like Obama. He's my president, and I don't want to dislike him. I want to be fair to him, and my relatives remind me of that. Don't want to burden him as liberals burdened GW.
That said, he really did fail to grasp what his election meant for the Country. For the good he had all the power he needed to bring about. What a failure of imagination. He really did assume the office with a ton of good will at his disposal. He had no need to alienate the good Republicans whose good will was a part of the whole.
Per Hot Air, I just knew it!
Can't we all just get along?
Oldefarte| 1.31.10 @ 2:58PM
The American people effectively NOW have donned their HIP BOOTS which prevent them being exposed to any more of his BS!!!!
John - TMF| 1.31.10 @ 3:02PM
Economy rebounding? That's a hoot. That 5.7% number might have just as likely been spray painted on a wall by brown-shirted thugs...
Its two major "up" components are Government Spending (which is sucking money out of our children and grandchildren's economy faster than we can create enough children and grandchildren to pay it.) and a bump in corporate inventory replenishment (which was going to be a phony drill because Christmas was done on the cheap with as much existing inventory pushed, and stockage kept to a bare minimum). Both numbers are phony.
What is actually worrisome about the number is that since it isn't real growth it is mostly just the beginnings of an inflationary cycle that is threatening to be frightening.
Any level of survival occurring now, is as you said, quite beside the socialist insanity being pushed by "The One".
The Bamster got no bumps from "The Spitch" because it was A) horrible, B) phony, and C) a pile of lies.
His speaking style is preachy, his method is a mechanical formula that I call "Telepromter Switching Jump Scroll", and people are really tired of the blame shifting prevarication of it all.
Anyone who has a podium and teleprompters to meet with 6th graders is as phony as a 3 carat cubic-zirconium engagement ring. The fiancee is getting wise to it now.
R/The Mighty Fahvaag
Bob| 1.31.10 @ 3:13PM
John, where did you get this misleading information? From Fox News? Here is the BEA news release:
http://www.bea.gov/newsrelease.....elease.htm
Government spending was NOT a major part of this increase -- especially in comparison to the third quarter. The increase in inventories had a replenishment factor, but that was because there was consumer demand. This was backed up by the fact that another major component of this increase was consumer spending.
You guys have been talking about inflation for over a year and we haven't seen any. If you had any background in economics you'd note that we will see some inflationary pressures return, but not for the next 6-12 months.
By the way, it's hard not to preach to both Republicans and Democrats when you deal with facts and data rather than hyperbole.
Indiana Alex| 2.1.10 @ 10:11AM
Bob,
This is just to remind you that you have no background in economics.
Mary Louise| 1.31.10 @ 3:23PM
I can't believe his education/loan proposal. What kind of unwholesome plan -morally and probably economically too- is that?
I'm not implying this is "some sort of Bolshevik plot," but I'm reminded by the cotton-headed proposals of Pelosi and Reid, and now Obama’s education plan, of the ennui of theoreticians and the danger that poses to the Country.
Reading Adams' biography I'm also reminded of the wholesomeness of a man who is as in touch with his physical side as he is with his intellectual side.
I did like his meeting w/the Republicans. He/they should do that kind of thing more often. It’s a perfect vehicle for educating the electorate.
I never thought I'd say this, but thank goodness for the Independents and their lack of party allegiance.
John - TMF| 1.31.10 @ 3:28PM
Quoting the Brownshirts for their phony number is poor argumentation. As soon as (.gov) popped up the point was invalid.
Most of the 5.7 is government deficit (because we are actually OUT OF MONEY) spending (which was loaded into GDP from the old GNP calculation a few decades ago - so GDP is a BS number anyway...).
1. Fox News kicks the slats out of all of the other news channels.
2. Fox Business Network is proving to be the absolute best Business news network ever.
And finally...
We are bouncing along the bottom right now; or even along a dangerous ledge.
The stock market has been on a steep relative slide since The One announced that he is going to gut the banks like fish. The Dow is about to drop below 10,000. A few more anti-business threats by the Obamessiah and we might even see 8,000 again.
Add to that the reality that the stock market has strategically shifted its focus from long term to day trading, there is little actual good news to report.
Personal income barely came in level. The real unemployment rate as calculated by the methods used 20 years ago, is hovering somewhere in the 17% plus range.
Yeah.. we're a hot smoking momma aren't we? Of course that's probably why the Libertines and Liberals are trying to get pot legalized. If most people are stoned they don't much care that they are poor.
Bob, you are so predictable.
r/TMF
Patriot| 1.31.10 @ 5:57PM
Gallup is inaccurate because it polls generic adults and then over-polls democrats in relation to republicans.
Rasmussen is the better indicator of true public opinion because he polls likely voters and doesn't over-poll a particular political affiliation.
Obama's REAL numbers are worse.
Patriot| 1.31.10 @ 6:04PM
Public Policy Polling shows Fox News is by far the most trusted news outlet--even among democrats!!
Only trolls like Bob pretend otherwise.
BTW, Bob, AmSpec represents conservatives which comprise 40% of the American population--double the 20% you liberals comprise.
Nice lie, nice try.
Bob| 1.31.10 @ 7:04PM
John, I see you have no understanding of GDP. I suggest you actually look at the numbers. If you don't understand them, I suggest you go to school. The BEA, the people that put out the GDP are non-political. They are the same people that were there under Bush. The numbers do NOT go through any politicians.
Furthermore, the GDP has nothing to do with deficit spending, it is the economic output of industry -- not government. If that's what you learned from Fox Business News, then I understand why you think it such a good network.
Patriot, you need to learn something about polls and sampling. PPP only polled in North Carolina (I bet you didn't know that). The number of Republicans in the poll was significantly larger than the population in general. Furthermore, the poll was heavily biased by party affiliation. Among Republicans, 70% of McCain voters thought Fox was "trusted", but only 13% of Obama voters. On the other hand, in case you didn't know, Obama won the election. Perhaps you should learn how to read results rather than just taking a headline from Fox News.
What I find even more interesting, is that the "most trusted" newscaster is Jon Stewart by a wide margin.
http://www.timepolls.com/hppol.....s_417.html
What does that tell you?
Regarding your misinformation on conservatives, of that 40% who consider themselves "conservative", about 40% were DEMOCRATS!!! How many Democrats do you think are on AmSpec. Patriot, perhaps you need to back and learn adding and subtracting....
Troll Watch| 1.31.10 @ 7:33PM
Bob is a troll and not a very smart one either. He may correct some of your spelling but other than that he is not good for much. For him Republicans didn't win in New Jersey, Virginia and Massachusetts. In his world (based on past posts) unemployment is already getting better, the housing market is better and happy days are here again, and Obama will be made King. That was from last year. Now it is right around the corner according to him. He has all kinds of advice for people he thinks are irrelevant (that would be us). You'd think he would be giving his amazing opinions to the White House. We are not so lucky. He apparently has been assigned to us. It is not very complimentary to get such a dumb troll. Maybe this is the best they have. We at least should get a high school grad.
Patriot| 1.31.10 @ 10:48PM
Misinformation on conservatives? Did I say they were all in the Republican party? Well, no, Bob I didn't; they're probably Reagan Democrats--but CONSERVATIVE just the same.
Over 40% of Americans self-identify as CONSERVATIVES, nearly twice the number of Americans who self-identify as LIBERALS like you, Bob. Sorry, I know it must hurt to be a loser, but you have to get over it.
I notice you didn't try to refute my post about Gallup vs Rasmussen this time--at least you're learning--slowly, I might add.
Fox polled highest by far in trustworthiness evidenced by their skyrocketing audience numbers. People vote with their remotes, dolt-- only the moronically stupid wouldn't agree.
Bob, perhaps you need to remove your head from your hind-end, maybe you'd see the light then.
John - TMF| 1.31.10 @ 8:16PM
To the Bob-Troll (for whom formulas mean little or nothing rational)
The calculation for GDP is:
Y = C + I + E + G
The variable list is:
Y = GDP
C = Consumer Spending
I = Investment made by industry
E = Excess of Exports over Imports
G = Government Spending
Bob... before you start down your road to wrong, lemme 'splain something to you. $800 billion in short term Government spending plus the $700 billion in TARP money IS most definitely going to WARP the equation.
The current increase in inventory (I) was artificially high beause for the prior 12 months it was rediculously low. So a replenishment of depleted inventory LOOKS like good news until the reality dawns that the cupboards were nearly bare, and the flow of goods is still low.
Which means TOO much MONEY chasing TOO few GOODS.
Don't wait for the rimshot.
The reason why inflation hasn't registered yet is simple... we are currently in a deflated economy and minus the massive amount of government spending (which is going most of no where that anybody can detect - BTW) so DEMAND is still very low.
Oddly enough, the low inflation level is currently being held down by the Phillips Curve Effect. Not enough people are working to purchase much of anything to drive the demand.
IF, and that is a really big if because the Tax and Spend Obama-bot is working hard to soak out via tax increases and regulation as much discressionary capital as he can.
So... You had better hope that the economy stays in recession. If it doesn't the demand and supply curves are going to meet the too much money out there curve, and we are going to be paying $100 for a loaf of bread.
Ok... so the GDP equation is crapola and it means little except propaganda points. I have fed the Bob-troll enough.
Tootles... Peace, Love, and Bobby Sherman.
The Mighty Fahvaag
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Yosemeti Sam| 2.1.10 @ 12:30AM
Are you a spokesperson for Chi Biden?
Yougenic| 2.1.10 @ 10:09AM
The VERY small minority who read or find agreement with Am Spec continue to outnumber those with a more liberal stance. The economy is NOT growing. Packaging the results into a headline using eliptical logic, wishful thinking, making a mountain out of mole hill statistical blip/making up out of whole cloth, while ignoring the "real" numbers - found on page six, weeks later - is concomitant with the information that flows from some other worldly, self aggrandized, "if we say it, it must be so... and if you don't - you're too dumb to comprehend what we're doing for you" vacuum tube reasoning that presumes the public is forever gullible reasoning. Re-stating the objective, ad nauseum, has not improved the willingness of the public to believe the lies told them. The more they hear, they more they are convinced they've been had - lied to, chumped, and as their personal world collapses around them - they know... every word emanating from BHO's mouth is now assessed as a fabrication - dressed in colorful words and baritone harmonics. BHO's insistence that he is not an ideologue, while working out of sight to implement his ideological driven agenda using any means possible, tells us stupid people he is insincere and dangerous; to us, our families, our community, our nation, and our freedoms.