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Boston Globe Poll Shows Dem Up 15 Points in Mass Senate Race

By on 1.10.10 @ 10:52AM

After yesterday’s Public Policy Polling survey finding that the special election to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat was a toss-up, a Boston Globe poll released today finds Democrat Martha Coakley beating Republican Scott Brown by a 15-point margin.

Polling a special election is difficult, of course, because it’s hard to predict the composition of the electorate. In the PPP survey, 44 percent of those polled were Democrats and 39 percent were independents, while the Globe had Democrats outnumbering independents by a nearly 4-to-1 margin, or 56 percent to 15 percent. But the fact that PPP detected more voter apathy among Democrats accounted for only part of the discrepancy.

Even if you put asside the weighting of the electorate, the polls have drastically different results. In the PPP poll, Brown crushed Coakley among independents, by a whopping 63 percent to 31 percent margin. By contrast, in the Globe poll, Coakley actually has a slight edge with independents, with 41 percent support compared to Brown’s 40 percent.

Some have noted that the Globe poll was taken from Jan. 2-6th, while PPP was in the field from Jan. 7th-9th, but the timing was so close that it couldn’t really explain the dramatic change. It’s also worth keeping in mind that PPP is the firm that gave conservative challenger Doug Hoffman a huge lead in New York’s 23rd Congressional race that was ultimately won by Democrat Bill Owens.

My personal take is that I simply cannot imagine Massachusetts voters electing a Republican to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat so that he can become a vote against the health care bill. I think the PPP poll was enough to scare Democrats into doing what they need to in the week leading up to the Jan. 19 election to make sure their voters turn out. But it will be interesting to see how independents do vote, because that will be an indication of what we may expect in other states and districts that aren’t as deep blue as Massachusetts.

UPDATE: Giving it some more thought and looking at the numbers a bit more, it turns out the Globe only polled 81 independents, while PPP polled about 290. Such a difference in sample size could explain the wide difference in results among independents, and perhaps lend more credence to the PPP numbers among this group. If I were a betting man, my guess would be that indendents are probably more pro-Brown than the Globe poll suggests, but that the electorate will end up being more Democratic than what’s reflected in the PPP survey.

View all comments (66) |

JC| 1.10.10 @ 12:24PM

The Globe poll is a joke. I'm not one to attack a poll if the results aren't favorable, but that was just rediculous. Only 15% independents polled while the electorate has ind. voters registering 51%? No way.

In reality, I think Coakley is ahead by single digits. Probably between Rasmussen's 9% and PPP's -1%. And here's why I think Brown will win. Rasmussen and PPP show Brown winning by 63-65% of the ind. vote. Considering And undecided voters mostly go to the challenger. I think Brown can get between an astonishing 70 - 80% of the ind. vote. If he does that, Coakley will need to get about 90% of the demovrats and 15 - 20% of the GOP. No easy task. Plus, Browns base is extremely energized. And this is a special election, which means a low turnout that will only help Brown. And on top of that, Accuweather is reporting that January 18 - 19 will have snow/stormy weather bringing turnout even lower.

Don't let this skewed poll discourage you. Brown CAN win. Please donate.

michael dunn| 1.10.10 @ 1:08PM

Accuweather is prediting sunny and 41 degrees in Boston on the 19th.

Lullaby's, Legends and Lies| 1.10.10 @ 2:49PM

Just goes to show you, polls and the weather, just can't be predicted. So here goes, my prediction for the 19th, Brown by 3%, and it's going to be 30 degrees and sunny. How's that? Can Bob prove or disprove this prediction with his charts? Nope!!

SoCon| 1.10.10 @ 4:48PM

But what about Bob's graphs?

Lullaby's, Legends and Lies| 1.10.10 @ 5:09PM

The GRAPHS!!! Damn it!! I forgot all about the graphs!! Oh well, back to the drawing board.

Mary| 1.10.10 @ 12:25PM

I think the polls are definitely closer than we are led to believe. I live in MA where the anti incumbant feelings are running high. Our dem governor is in trouble too. Martha is not a shoe-in necessarily. Many, many folks around me have Scott Brown signs in their yard.

Peter from Boston| 1.10.10 @ 12:37PM

I also live in MA. I drive to work every day through some of the most liberal towns in the state and I see a Brown lawn sign about every 5th house. No Coakley signs at all.

The Globe poll IS a joke. They chose the methodology to get the result they wanted. No one believes that Coakley can possibly be ahead in the independent vote.

The Globe poll also give the Libertarian 6 points, when every poll ever taken gives him 1-2 points at best.

All these call the credibility of the Globe poll into question. Your thought that MA voters could not possible elect a Republican is very far off base - the ground swell for Brown is almost palpable.

Coakley support is lukewarm at best. One of the Democrat political blogs says that the blogger had to "bitch and moan" just to get his people to do ANYTHING.

Meanwhile there are waiting lists for people to work the phones at Brown call-centers. Want a Brown sign or button? Sorry, all gone. Demand was to high.

THIS is the writing on the wall - not a slanted Globe poll.

Sabastian| 1.11.10 @ 8:25AM

*All these call the credibility of the Globe poll into question.*
I can't trust the Globe for unbiased news!!!!! What is the world coming to?
Might explain why, no matter where I put the paper on my table, it always falls off on the left side.

Len Mullen| 1.10.10 @ 12:42PM

Coakley ads dominated both football games last night. So many showings of the same during a short period to a single audience after being invisible says here polling is closer to the PPP numbers. Not sure that the best place to spend her cash and pretty certain that she did not grow on people with each viewing. As I watched, I grew to dislike her 1) for her nonmessage message, and 2) for her smugness as she delivered her punchline at the end.

I'd like to see a counter ad where the speaker pauses a VCR to refute each claim, talk about the kids she did not help, bring up the criminal activities she ignored as AG.

mark| 1.10.10 @ 12:46PM

LIBERAL RAG SUPPRESSING TURNOUT. SCUM.

Michelle| 1.10.10 @ 12:50PM

Voters are fed up with Dems and big taxes and massive spending.

Brown has an excellent chance. I support him wholeheartedly and I am a fed-up Dem turned Independent.

Brown represents the people. If you like him,
get to the polls and VOTE!

Go, Brown!

Margie| 1.10.10 @ 12:52PM

I wonder if Ted Kennedy will be voting in this election. Obviously the dead usually do in the Democrat elections, right?
Go Scott Brown! I'm in NJ but I'm rooting for him big time. He was on the radio (Hannity) here and here's fabulous. Here's his website~
www.brownforussenate.com/

SoCon| 1.10.10 @ 4:44PM

Hahaha!! Don't forget Ted's brothers, Margie.

Lullaby's, Legends and Lies| 1.10.10 @ 5:16PM

****'* ****** ***** *** ********** ********!!

"LL&L's comments, have been removed for bad taste."

I'm just going to think about the comment I was going to write here, and not write it, it's just wrong. Wrong!! I'm trying to be a better person, my name is Lullaby's.

victor| 1.10.10 @ 7:01PM

Yes, I can see the headline now:
Harry Reid comes to Bahston and pleads"
Win one for the Swimmer!

www.brownforussenate.com/

turfmann| 1.10.10 @ 12:56PM

Peter from Boston is correct and I can add my observations here on Cape Cod: All Brown and no Coakley (except for my lovable moonbat neighbor).

proreason| 1.10.10 @ 12:56PM

Read the advice given in the PPP poll. The poolsters are ardent Democrats.

The poll is a clarion call to Democrats.

Ordinarilly, the polls are tricked up to make the Democrats looked good. This one was tricked up to make the Republican look good and rally the Democratic troops.

Alex| 1.10.10 @ 1:02PM

Maybe the A-Team at work again, the ACORN team is in town.

zanne| 1.10.10 @ 1:24PM

Can the black panthers be far behind?

Pingback| 1.10.10 @ 1:18PM

The Greenroom » Forum Archive » What’s up with the Mass. Senate polls? links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…Globe specifically asked, while PPP selects voters in recent elections (Personally, I prefer the latter). But Marshall is almost certainly wrong that it’s all about the screen. AmSpec’s Philip Klein does a much better job of outlining differences between the two polls: (1) The Globe sample is much more Democratic; (2) PPP has Brown winning Independents by a huge margin; (3) PPP polled after the…

Mayflower from MA| 1.10.10 @ 1:38PM

I live north of Boston, and I am happy to say that
Brown signs are seen frequently in my travels.
In fact I have seen only one for his opponent so
far.

Lullaby's, Legends and Lies| 1.10.10 @ 2:43PM

Mayflower: I'm a Bronx native, so therefore, I normally hate Boston, but I'm calling a truce until Spring Training, and I'm cheering on the City that started the American Revolution. I hope you start another one for us on the 19th of January. But after that, the truce is off, and Let's Go Yankees!!

Dave C| 1.10.10 @ 1:51PM

If Brown is within 6 or 8 points, I think Steele will lose his job for not sending RNC support Brown's way. If the dems hold up Brown's certification and pass Obamacare, they could cause a revolution thy destroys the dem party.

martin j smith| 1.10.10 @ 1:55PM

During the 08 presidential race I followed polls. Do not ask why--I just did. But I did learn something: Do not trust any ( I REALLLLLLLLLY MEAN ANYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY ) MSM POLL.
In this case look at it this way ( to avoid unnecessary anxiety. The Boston Glob last I heard is run -owned by guess who ? The NEW YORK TIMES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is correct. So my advice is this don't be reactive. Check out the methodology if you reeeealllllllllly need to assure yourself. Remember: MSM Lies: people die!!!!!!!!

noislamocommie| 1.10.10 @ 2:05PM

This one's for Scott:

Isaiah 43,verses 18-19
"Forget the former things;do not dwell on the past.
See,I am doing a new thing!
Now it springs up; you do not perceive it?
I am making a way in the desert and streams in the wasteland."

Pingback| 1.10.10 @ 2:37PM

Polling the Massachusetts Senate race « Olliander links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…turnout.  Turnout, turnout and more turnout.  It’s imperative that Republican voters come out in droves on the 19th.  That seems to be the only way. Also, I’m in complete agreement with Phillip Klein here: My personal take is that I simply cannot imagine Massachusetts voters electing a Republican to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat so that he can become a vote against the health care bill. I…

james| 1.10.10 @ 2:47PM

Forget it. It's true that MA went for Reagan, and they actually elected a Mormon republican as governor. But if Brown wins this race then it is tantamount to revolution. I'll believe it when I see it.

SoCon| 1.10.10 @ 4:47PM

Just the fact that the election is up in the air is amazing. We're not talking about a red state here.

kingsmill| 1.10.10 @ 2:51PM

I live in a moonbat town just outside of Boston.

There is no enthusiasm among the Lefties for Coakley.

In a town where showing Republican tendencies is an act of physical courage, there are no Coakley signs, however Brown signs are speckled throughout the town.

The traditional Democratic machines, like Mayor Menino's in Boston, may get bodies to the polls, but drumming up any enthusiasm for Coakley will be difficult. The trades unions and other non-public sector unions are decidedly not for Martha.

drewinmass| 1.10.10 @ 2:56PM

One independent (unenrolled as described by Mass law) here who will be voting for Brown. Everybody I know is voting for Brown. However, my community was one of the few in Mass who voted for McCain in the last election. Just a bunch of fed-up hard-working taxpayers.

Emike21| 1.10.10 @ 3:07PM

It is NOT Ted Kennedy's senate seat. Ted's Dead. Move on...

Dave| 1.10.10 @ 3:57PM

Alinsky Rule #4: Give the appearance of success despite the reality. We saw it all through the campaign-outrageously inflated numbers Obama supposedly has. Only the leftist fools believed that crap.

Incase you haven';t fallen for it all you Scott Brown voters-the poll showing Coakley so far ahead is supposed to make you tell yourself "I may as well not even vote if she is projected to win so big". Again, only the fools believe such transparent ploys

Olliander | 1.10.10 @ 4:02PM

Excellent point Dave.

Bill,from WV| 1.10.10 @ 4:37PM

Another pathetic attempt by The Globe to influence a VERY close race. By publishing an "enhanced" poll The Globe hopes that voters who would have come out for Brown would stay away from the polls , since 15points, "What 's the use"! Typical liberal rag trying their best to pull one out for Teddy and the Demoncrats!

Elizabeth| 1.10.10 @ 4:54PM

I'm a democrat voting for Scott. This administration has NOT fulfilled its promise to be "postpartisan". It is time to inject some balance into the Senate.

bruce kay| 1.10.10 @ 5:35PM

Mass. is a state dominated by the educated.
By definition, a very tough place for a Republican to win.

Lullaby's, Legends and Lies| 1.10.10 @ 6:07PM

Dominated by the educated, huh? You're a Jackass!

victor| 1.10.10 @ 8:33PM

Better to be an Enlightened Redneck than an Overeducated Barney from Boston who can read this:
"Si hoc legere scis nimium eruditiones habes"

martin j smith| 1.11.10 @ 8:05AM

Educated to think in which way ? Or are they educated to think at all ?
Just vote,vote,get out the vote ,monitor the vote, and vote some more.

Do not let polls from a Left Wing Government Approved Organ influence your behavior. That is what this whole thing is about Comrades !!!!!!!!!!

joseph snead| 1.10.10 @ 6:30PM

I live in WV and am sending money to Brown. I lived in Lowell as a child (Textron, Atlantic Parachute, etc) and remember lots of kind hard working people who would be aghast at the present Democrat party. This was in the early 1940,s. My neighbor was a Congresswoman.

Red Man| 1.10.10 @ 7:13PM

I am a union member from Massachusetts. I, along with many fellow members have had enough of the inept, corrupt politicians our unions endorse. We were not happy to have to vote for Obama, and we will not vote for Coakley!

BK aka Jackass| 1.10.10 @ 7:19PM

Lully,yer right, Mass is #3. RI & Conn go back & forth as #1 for educated populace.
No Democrats there-My Bad.

Lullaby's, Legends and Lies| 1.10.10 @ 7:45PM

BKAKAJACKASS: So Rhode Island #1? Wow, but that's not even a real state!! I drove through it recently, but I didn't get off the damn exit, because I blinked. So if Massachusetts is #3, as you say it is, than it's not such a hard place, for a Republican to win in after all, now is it? Dominated by the Educated my ass, you're #3 BK, Rhode Island laughs at you, all ten people who live there.

Pingback| 1.10.10 @ 7:52PM

Here’s why there is such a contrast in polls for Scott Brown between PPP and Boston G links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

Brown between PPP and Boston Globe | Fire Andrea Mitchell! Expose liberal bias! About Contact Us RSS Here’s why there is such a contrast in polls for Scott Brown between PPP and Boston Globe American Spectator, like myself have a hard time imagining that Scott Brown winning in a state like Massachusetts to replace a Senate seat held by Ted Kennedy. It just makes about as much sense to me as say Vermont…

alin | 1.10.10 @ 9:28PM

I am a union member from Massachusetts. I, along with mannike outlet
y fellow members have had enough of the inept, corrupt politadidas outleticians our unions endorse. We were not happy to have to vote for Obama, and we will not vote for Coakley!

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Richard Travers | 1.11.10 @ 5:25AM

Great enthusaism for Scott here....I am from Medford....Martha's hometown.....There are just a few signs for martha around here.....including my neighbor accross the street, but he had a much bigger sign for Mike Cappawanno in the primaries who got killed in the primaries....Just a loyal democrat who had to put up a Coakley sign later.......I didn't see andy Scott Browne signs at all until last week...Now I see a scattering of them around here......in Martha Home city of Medford...I think this will be a shot accross the country.....home of the American Revolution just might repeat itself......on Tuesday Jan 19.....especially if those pitchfork patriots showup for Scott Brown............Not as conservative as I would like but not a bad guy....
I sent him $25.00........a couple of weeks ago...but he needs bodies now....more than cash...

Rich arch conservative from Medford, Ma.

Pingback| 1.11.10 @ 9:01AM

What’s up with Mass. Senate Polls?… | NwoDaily.com links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…— the Globe specifically asked, while PPP selects voters in recent elections (Personally, I prefer the latter). But Marshall is almost certainly wrong that it’s all about the screen. AmSpec’s Philip Klein does a much better job of outlining differences between the two polls: (1) The Globe sample is much more Democratic; (2) PPP has Brown winning Independents by a huge margin; (3) PPP polled after the…

Bob| 1.11.10 @ 10:02AM

Don't make the mistake of thinking this election is about ideology. It's not -- it's about turnout. Historically, off cycle special elections have extremely low turnout. The stars are perfectly aligned for an upset by Republicans because the extreme right is highly motivated and the Dems are not -- Obama is not on the ticket. Traditional Democrat constituencies like blacks and Hispanics will show up in very low numbers. In addition, the fact that there are a high percentage of highly educated individuals in MA doesn't necessarily favor the Dems as educated independents will vote on issues like health care and government spending.

From a pure marketing research perspective, both polling methodologies have extreme weaknesses from the automated polling by PPP to the urban bias of the Globe. The PPP methodology will under poll Dems while the Globe will over poll Dems.

If this were a general election, Coakley would have a 15-20 point advantage -- but this isn't. The difference here could be the strength of a get out the vote effort by either side. From a probabilities perspective, Coakley should win, but not by much. Last minute advertising could make the difference. If the PPP poll scared the Democrat hierarchy, they are apt to increase last minute spending. Remember that a Dem loss could submarine health care, so I would bet that money is coming in for Coakley from across the nation.

Actually, I'm rooting for Brown since the current health care initiative needs to be defeated.

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credit repair massachusetts, on credit repair massachusetts, links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

This is a great website. I like it alot.

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massachusetts credit repair, on massachusetts credit repair, links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

So many different ideas listed here - amazing..

Pingback| 1.14.10 @ 3:37PM

Coakley leads Brown by 8 in latest poll, but . . . links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…are 49-41, but permit a few observations. First, and most importantly, Brown should not, by rights, be anywhere near as close as 8 points. That is a good number, especially since the Globe had Coakley up by 15 on Sunday. Rasmussen has Brown down by 2 and PPP had him up by 1 over the weekend. As for the Blue Mass Group poll, it appears, for what it's worth, that this is a Dem polling outfit. It is also a small…

Pingback| 1.14.10 @ 3:42PM

Coakley leads Brown by 8 in latest poll, but . . . - Bill Dupray - American Conserva links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…are 49-41, but permit a few observations. First, and most importantly, Brown should not, by rights, be anywhere near as close as 8 points. That is a good number, especially since the Globe had Coakley up by 15 on Sunday. Rasmussen has Brown down by 2 and PPP had him up by 1 over the weekend. As for the Blue Mass Group poll, it appears, for what it’s worth, that this is a Dem polling outfit. It is also a…

Pingback| 1.15.10 @ 12:30PM

Coakley leads Brown by 8 in latest poll, but . . . links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…that is a good number, especially since the Globe had Coakley up by 15 on Sunday. Rasmussen has Brown down by 2 and PPP had him up by 1 over the weekend. As for the Blue Mass Group poll,…

More Blog Posts by Philip Klein

http://spectator.org/blog/2010/01/10/boston-globe-poll-shows-dem-up

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