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Re: Prez Just Can't Get Above 50

By John Tabin on 12.31.09 @ 2:25PM

Doug: Be very, very careful with those "Zogby Interactive" surveys. Unlike a traditional poll, which selects a sample by randomly dialing phone numbers, Zogby Interactive uses volunteers answering questions on the internet. While Zogby attempts to adjust the sample demographically to make it reflect a random, the self-selection problem is acute, and these surveys have not performed well at predicting elections.

In this specific case, the result does mirror Rasmussen's tracking poll of Obama's approval rating, which shows it hovering a little below 50%, though it departs from Gallup's tracking poll, which shows the President's ratings hover a little above 50. There's a methodological explanation for the discrepancy: Rasmussen filters its sample to capture only likely voters, while Gallup does not. Rasmussen's likely voter model has performed well in the past, so it would be fair to say that while Obama enjoys the approval of a slim majority of Americans, he does not enjoy the approval of a majority who are likely to vote (which is part of the reason why Democrats are likely to sustain quite a few losses in the 2010 elections).

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MattSwartz| 1.1.10 @ 1:27AM

The magic number isn't 50, it's 40. Unless his approval ratings get down that low, he'll win another term.

Sitting presidents can do a lot to manipulate the system economically and in other ways, and the Dems have a big lead in terms of State-level Secretary of State positions, so they effectively win all ties in the states they control.

Obama can do pretty badly and still win a second term.

MattSwartz| 1.1.10 @ 1:27AM

The magic number isn't 50, it's 40. Unless his approval ratings get down that low, he'll win another term.

Obama can do pretty badly and still win a second term.

martin j smith| 1.1.10 @ 8:34AM

Whatever the % that support Obama, Gd help us for the future. I agree, the goal should be below 40% But what would it take ?

I fear that unless there is an actual cataclysmic even pinned to Obama there is unlikely to be a significant change.
Why ? First I think the Democrat Left is much better organized much more sophisticated in street fighting politics than conservatives or Republicans. Second, they have the MSM on their side,third In addition to the unity of the "true Believers", there are enough people who are ignorant of the issues ( partly because they depend on MSM for "information") and partly because things are not yet bad enough for them personally, and partly because of a failure in Republican Leadership ( I think the least important of these issues by the way ).

What could change the equation: Short of a catastrophic event ? First greater right or conservative media involvement,second more cohesiveness poltically thru Republican-Conservative coalition building. A willingness to get down to "bare nuckles political fighting".
Finally to do all of these things--Recognize what this political environment we are in is all about. That is a grab for power.