While Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has secured the needed 60
votes to bring his health care bill to the Senate floor after
Thanksgiving recess, there's still a long road to go until
President Obama can sign legislation into law.
The optimistic take for Democrats today is obviously that health
care legislation has cleared another hurdle. And it must be said
that however many ups and downs there have been throughout the
process, at each stage Democrats have found a way to move the
ball down field. They managed to get bills out of committees,
cobble together enough votes to get the bill passed in the House,
and today, to get the bill to the Senate floor. Comprehensive
health care legislation has never come this close to passing at
any time in American history. Thus, there's good reason to
believe that somehow the Democratic leadership, along with the
White House, will be able to iron out their remaining
differences, twist enough arms, and dole out enough goodies to
get past the goal line.
With that said, there are plenty of ways for everything to
completely fall apart for Democrats in the coming weeks and
months. Though Reid was able to unite his caucus for tonight's
vote, at least two Senators -- Joe Lieberman and Blanche Lincoln
-- have unequivocally said that they would block any bill that
still included a government plan at the end of the upcoming
amendment process. Sen. Mary Landrieu
said that Reid wouldn't have 60 votes unless Democrats agree
to weaken the government plan so that it is triggered if private
insurers don't reach certain benchmarks. Sen. Ben Nelson has said
he wants
more restrictive abortion language in the bill. That doesn't
include other Democratic Senators whose votes could be in doubt
depending on how the amendment process goes. It's worth keeping
in mind that once the bill reaches the floor, Reid will need 60
votes to make any changes. It's really difficult to see how there
could be 60 votes in the Senate to go as far as the House did to
ensure that no taxpayer money covers abortions. And it's also
questionable whether there are 60 votes to remove (or at least
weaken) the government plan.
Even if Reid figures out a way to get his caucus to fall into
line and squeaks the bill through the Senate, the Senate bill
would still have to be reconciled with the House version. And
anything that gets negotiated in that conference (on abortion
language, the government plan, etc.) could upset the delicate
balance that enabled Speaker Nancy Pelosi to pass the House bill
by a narrow 220 to 215 vote margin.
Another thing to keep in mind is that with the bill first going
to the Senate floor on November 30, this process is now all but
assured to drag into next year. And there's a reason why the
White House had been emphasizing the need to get health care done
by the end of the year. The longer this drags on, the more
pressure there will be on Democrats to do something about the
unemployment crisis, the more President Obama's popularity can
decline, the more chance there is that unforseen circumstances
can get in the way, and the closer they get to the 2010
elections.
So, on one hand, Democrats scored a big victory today, but on the
other hand, if it was this difficult to keep their caucus
together on a vote to bring the bill to the floor, it may not
bode well for the much tougher votes ahead.
UPDATE: As expected, the motion passed with 60 votes along
straight party lines, shortly after 8 p.m. The Republicans had 39
votes against it -- George Voinovich was the only Senator who
wasn't present.
According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, he was back
home observing the 30th anniversary of being elected mayor of
Cleveland, with his old team.
