The conservative constituents of red-state Democratic senators
should see through what Ben Nelson is doing. Many Democrats in
difficult states will vote to let the bill go forward and then
switch on the second cloture vote or vote no on the Senate floor
after cloture is invoked. But voting for the motion to proceed
now makes it more likely that the bill will pass and much more
difficult for it to be significantly reshaped.
In fact, an analysis by the Congressional Research Service
performed at the request of Sen. Tom Coburn's (R-Okla.) office
found that in 40 of 41 cases between the 106th and 110th Congress
where there was a successful motion to proceed and a final Senate
vote on a bill, the bill in question passed. That 97.6 percent
figure doesn't apply to bills that ended up getting pulled before
the final vote, meaning that there would still be a chance to
defeat the bill. But Democrats who profess to be concerned about
the Senate bill -- because of abortion or any other reason --
should not vote for the motion to proceed.
