The White House has been trying to convince red state Democrats
that it would be worse for their reelection chances if no health
care bill passed and President Obama were seen as a failure, then
if they could tout an acheivement. They note that Democrats
killed health care legislation in 1994 and still lost Congress
anyway.
But a new Zogby poll finds that
Sen. Blanche Lincoln, one of a few Democrats who has not yet
committed to voting to bring health care legislation to the
Senate floor, would face a much tougher reelection fight in
Arkansas in 2010 if she were to vote for the bill.
The poll finds that as it is, Lincoln holds a thin 41 percent to
39 percent lead over her potential Republican challenger, State
Senator Gilbert Baker. But when pollsters followed up and asked
how their support would change if Lincoln voted for the health
care bill, suddenly it's Baker who enjoys a comfortable 49
percent to 37 percent lead. Overall, that's a 14-point swing
against her just based on the health care vote.
Arkansans oppose the health care bill by an overwhelming 64
percent to 29 percent margin, and after pollsters explained what
was in the legislation, that number grew to 68 percent to 26
percent.
A vote for the health care bill, in short, would be toxic for her
reelection chances. It's certainly something she must be thinking
about as the Senate prepares for a Saturday night procedural vote
to move the bill to the floor, which Republicans are sure to use
against her as a vote for the bill itself.
