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The Spectacle Blog
Below, Doug noted the Rasmussen poll giving an edge to the GOP on the Congressional ballot. But what's noteworthy is that the findings aren't isolated to Rasmussen, which tends to produce poll results more favorable to Republicans. The Gallup poll now gives Republicans a 4-point edge, which includes a 22-point lead among independent voters.
Gallup also adds some historical context:
Since Gallup regularly began using the generic ballot to measure registered voters' preferences for the House of Representatives in 1950, it has been rare for Republicans to have an advantage over Democrats. This is likely because more Americans usually identify as Democrats than as Republicans, but Republicans can offset this typical Democratic advantage in preferences with greater turnout on Election Day. Most of the prior Republican registered-voter leads on the generic ballot in Gallup polling occurred in 1994 and 2002, two strong years for the GOP.
UPDATE: Pew is out with a survey showing anti-incumbent sentiment "among the most negative in two decades of Pew Research surveys. Other low points were during the 1994 and 2006 election cycles, when the party in power suffered large losses in midterm elections." The survey also found Republicans have a "sizable" enthusiasm advantage.
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More Blog Posts by Philip Klein
http://spectator.org/blog/2009/11/11/not-just-rasmussen
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Ken (Old Texican| 11.11.09 @ 4:09PM
Mr. Klein
NO, thank you!
I don't read polls anymore. It is going to boil down to patriots vs. scumbag "Statists, facists, communists".
We patriots will take back America, or die in the effort.
These scumbags have no clue about where we are coming from.
Most of them are dreamers, and they have never eperienced "reality".
Gabe| 11.11.09 @ 6:06PM
*But what's noteworthy is that the findings aren't isolated to Rasmussen, which tends to produce poll results more favorable to Republicans.*
Wasn't Rasmussen the most accurate of all the polls in the 2008 and 2009 elections? So its poll numbers are hardly "more favorable to Republicans," just more right.
DrTomVoter| 11.11.09 @ 8:06PM
Gabe, Rasmussen also was the most accurate for the 2004 Presidential election. It would be more appropriate to say that the other polls are less accurate because they tend to be more favorable to Democrats.
Rasmussen also is one of the few that survey likely voters, and not registered voters, or all Americans. That would be a more rational explanation for the difference.
Pete2| 11.11.09 @ 9:10PM
the most telling indicator is the number of independents who are leaning towrds republicans this year, mainly because the democrats are really the communist party USA. Republicans are no betetr than demos as far as politicians go, as evidenced by their picking Scazzafloozy up in NY-23. The point is that the republicans are no good while the democrats are no damn good.
terry| 11.11.09 @ 10:40PM
I would not say the rasmussen favors Republicans it cheapens the poll. As described in the poll, Rasmussen samples likely voters not simply adults. By that reasoning since Republicans are more active at the voting booth, this poll is dead on.
Jim Hlavac| 11.11.09 @ 10:49PM
Replacing corrupt and out of their minds democrats with corrupt and out of their minds republicans will not do anything. Throw them all out -- every one! Let God sort them out. (and deny them their pensions as we show them the door.)
marsha ross| 11.12.09 @ 3:34PM
I am a gallop poll taker..and the questions are sometimes impossible for a conservative to answer in a manner that actually expresses a thoughtful opinion.