Earlier today, Brian noted
the endorsement race between former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly
Fiorina and California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, but I thought
I'd add a few broader points about the sure-to be contentious
California Senate primary.
It's pretty clear that DeVore, who has less built-in fundraising
advantages and lacks institutional support, will try to
Scozzafava-ize Fiorina. Essentially, his best bet is to portray
her as a liberal who is being thrust upon voters by the
establishment, while he tries to galvanize grassroots activists
-- and grab the online donations that go along with it. This much
was pretty clear when DeVore spoke at a Spectator
Newsmaker Breakfast in August. At the time, Fiorina wasn't even
running yet, but he
blasted her as a "rich moderate" and "self-funded
dilettante."
Fiorina, for her part, comes into the race with more
institutional support and should have plenty of financial
resources, so her challenge will be to calm fears that she's
really just another liberal Republican, while at the same time
making the case that she'll be more electable statewide.
When it came to New York's 23rd Congressional race, the case for
Doug Hoffman was a no-brainer for conservatives. Scozzafava was a
liberal on both economic and social issues -- as evidenced by her
ultimate endorsement of Bill Owens -- and she was running in a
district where a conservative candidate had a reasonable chance
of victory. Things are a bit more murky in California. It's much
harder to see somebody who describes himself as a movement
conservative winning a state that Obama carried by 24 points than
it was to see the possibility of Hoffman winning a district that
Obama carried by 5. And while Scozzafava had a very clear liberal
record, it's not yet clear where Fiorina is ideologically. For
what it's worth, in a recent
interview Fiorina said she did not support the Wall Street
bailout or economic stimulus package, which would put her to the
right of Charlie Crist on the issue. On abortion, she said that
she believes that life begins at conception and that she's
"personally pro-life" while adding that government policy should
be focused on reducing abortions and promoting adoption. She also
said that she's opposed to government funding for abortion. I
imagine that social conservatives will want to hear a bit more on
this front, because when some politicians say they're "personally
pro-life" it still means that they think it should be up to each
individual woman whether or not to choose abortion. But either
way, her remarks certainly put her well to the right of
Scozzafava, who was openly pro-choice.
So I think there are a lot of factors that will play into this
race going forward. Will a long campaign show Fiorina to be as
liberal as DeVore says, or is she more conservative than a lot of
people currently perceive? Is DeVore the real deal, or are there
some things in his voting record that may tarnish his
conservative credentials? Who will look more electable against
Barbara Boxer come next June's primary? Of course, there are all
the other non-ideological factors that will also play into the
race. Fiorina, for one, had a very controversial tenure at
Hewlett Packard, where she pushed through a contentious merger
with Compaq, and was eventually ousted. Without getting into the
merits, the point is that Fiorina made her fair share of
enemies during her days as a corporate executive, and my
guess is that they'll be ready and willing to come out swinging
against her, potentially resulting in some very unflattering
stories she'll have to fend off. While I'm somewhat familiar with
Fiorina's history in the business world from my days as a
financial reporter, I'm less familiar with DeVore's background
beyond what he's said directly and what I've read to this point.
But the same thing applies. How will his biography hold
up over the course of a seven month primary that is
sure to be expensive and brutal?
Either way, it should be one of the Senate races worth keeping an
eye on.
