Before Tuesday's vote on marriage in Maine, CQPolitics
ran
this piece exploring whether the polls were understating
popular support for the "people's veto." As it turned out, they
were. One of the more interesting findings: the poll
(pdf) that showed the most support for marriage redefinition
repeal used an automated message, not live interviewers. This
raises the possibility of a "Bradley effect" for gay marriage,
where people who believe marriage is between a man and a woman
are reluctant to share their real views with pollsters.
Like the overall Maine result, this cuts both ways in the
same-sex marriage debate. It suggests that overall public
opposition to same-sex marriage may be understated in national
polls, raising questions of how much the recent shifts reflect
rising support or just the public's sense of what the socially
acceptable position is. It also raises questions about marriage
polling in places like Massachusetts and New York, where some
surveys have shown plurality support for same-sex marriage (this
has been true in Massaachusetts for
years). Gay rights groups have nevertheless been reluctant to
see the issue put on the ballot there, perhaps for good reason.
On the other hand, if voicing an opinion that less than a decade
ago wasn't terribly controversial -- the idea that marriage is
between a man and a woman -- is now something people are afraid
to say to strangers, that doesn't bode well for traditional
marriage's long-term prospects. It suggests that the bandwagon
effect could work, putting opposition to same-sex marriage in the
closet or reducing it to the opinion that dare not speak its
name.
