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Bob McDonnell and the Black Vote
Over at RealClearPolitics, Sean Trende examines a Survey USA poll that shows Virginia's Republican candidate for governor winning an eye-popping 31 percent of the black vote. I've often found Survey USA's numbers for black support of the GOP a little high, probably due to small sample sizes. But Trende makes the case for and against taking this figure seriously:
(1) In 2006, George Allen came about as close as he could have come to dropping an "n-bomb" on a person of color without actually saying that particular word. Throughout the campaign, Democrats consistently brought up racial incidents in Allen's past. And the Republican label was radioactive nationally. Allen still got 15% of the black vote.
(2) Doug Wilder's (Virginia's first black governor and former mayor of Richmond) non-endorsement of Deeds has received a ton of attention.
(3) McDonnell has been competing quietly for the black vote in his commercials. One advertisement has featured businesswoman Sheila Johnson, a Democrat who endorsed McDonnell, while another features numerous African American Deputy and Assistant Attorneys General.
I'll be surprised if McDonnell gets much more than 20 percent of the black vote -- which would itself be a fairly strong result -- but we'll soon see.
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Garland Tillery| 10.21.09 @ 9:07PM
I'll be surprised if he gets 5% of the African American vote. Sheila Johnson is what we used to call an "Oreo" and couldn't be more unlike real African Americans. Wilder acts like he has Alzheimers and is dismissed by most folks out of hand.
McDonnell is nothing but a sanctimonious Pat Robertson zombie pretending to be a "compassionate conservative." Even Republican politicians in Virginia are saying that his grandious Transportation Plan is smoke and mirrors and that Deeds is the candidate who can bring consensus in the legislature. Without consensus, nothing will be done to repair and improve our bridges, highways and tunnels.
Karla Grase| 11.2.09 @ 12:45PM
Some of Mc Donnell's ads appear to be trying too hard to ge the black vote. His ads and commercials shoud be focused on expressing what he can do for all Virginians, not how many African American leaders he has endorsing him in attempt to get the black vote.