Liberals are touting a new Washington Post
poll purporting to show a majority of 57 percent of Americans
support including a government-run plan, or public option, in
health care legislation. It's worth noting a few things about
this result. The important thing to keep in mind is that while
some of us are really focused on the details of the health care
debate, it isn't the same for most of the country. As I
noted last week, a Pew poll found that only 56 percent of the
public recognized that the "public option" had something vaguely
to do with the issue of health care, while 11 percent thought it
had to do with either banking regulation, unemployment, or energy
policy -- and 33 percent wouldn't even wager a guess. What this
tells me is that for a good chunk of the population, polling on
the issue will largely depend on how the question is asked,
because if only 56 percent know it has something to do with
health care, it's probably even a smaller portion of the public
that really understands what it's all about. So, in this case,
the Washington Post asked the question in the most
benign sounding way, as it is typically pitched by liberal
supporters, "Would you support or oppose having the government
create a new health insurance plan to compete with private health
insurance plans?" In this case, the pollsters used the
market-friendly term "compete" even though it's the subject of
tremendous debate whether or not that competition could be fair.
Back in June, the Post did
another poll, which actually found even broader support for
the government plan -- 62 percent. But in that poll, they asked a
follow up question, "What if having the government create a new
health insurance plan made many private health insurers go out of
business because they could not compete?" After asking that,
support droped to 37 percent.
It's worth mentioning a few other items from today's poll. It
shows 56 percent support a mandate requiring individuals to
purchase health insurance, and that number goes up to 71 percent
when people are told that legislation would also provide
financial assistance to those with lower incomes to purchase
insurance. However, pollsters did not mention in any of the
questions that anybody who does not obtain health insurance would
face a tax of $750.
Other findings in the poll are much more mixed. For instance, it
shows that:
Overall, 45 percent of Americans favor the broad outlines of
the proposals now moving in Congress, while 48 percent are
opposed, about the same division that existed in August, at the
height of angry town hall meetings over health-care reform.
Seven in 10 Democrats back the plan, while almost nine in 10
Republicans oppose it. Independents divide 52 percent against,
42 percent in favor of the legislation.
Meanwhile, as many people disapprove of Obama's handling of
health care as approve -- 48 percent -- and 68 percent think
health care legislation will add to the deficit.
The bottom line: do I think these poll results will be
politically useful for those making the case for a government
plan? Yes. Do I think it suggests a groundswell of public support
for this policy measure? Absolutely not.
