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The Spectacle Blog
"We've just been deluged with stuff," said Rob Ryan, media coordinator for Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, whose congressional campaign in upstate New York's 23rd District has "surged" in recent days.
The most recent poll showed Hoffman gaining 7 points while establishment-backed GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava has lost 6 points. Ryan said, "Republicans are coming home to roost, and it's in the Conservative roost."
In the past week, the three-way contest in the Nov. 3 special election has suddenly become America's most-watched campaign this fall, generating massive attention from reporters and commentators nationwide. The Wall Street Journal, The Hill, Fox News, the Weekly Standard and scores of political blogs are following this campaign as a bellwether that could have major impact on the electoral landscape heading into the 2010 congressional mid-terms.
"This election is going to be a referendum on two things," Ryan said in a telephone interview Friday evening. "First, it's going to be a referendum on the first 10 months of the Obama administration. And second, it's going to be a referendum on the future of the Republican Party."
Given the district's history -- "It's been Republican since the Civil War," Ryan said -- many veteran observers have all but ignored the little-known Democratic candidate, Bill Owens, and are now focusing almost entirely on the battle between Hoffman and the liberal Republican, Scozzafava. That's a battle that Hoffman appears to be winning.
"Doug is a different kind of candidate," said Ryan, his voice hoarse from a long week of 14-hour workdays. "He's a citizen who's had enough."
The son of a single mom, Hoffman started work at age 14, pumping gas in his hometown of Saranac Lake, N.Y. He served for six years in the National Guard and Army Reserves, earned his way through college, became a CPA, and is now managing partner in a large accounting firm.
Hoffman is a lifelong resident of the 23rd District which, as
Ryan points out, covers a larger geographical area than any
other congressional district east of the Mississippi
River. The largely rural district covers 11
counties near the Canadian border, from Lake Ontario on
the west to the Vermont state line on the east. (Click image to
see full-size.)
Since 1993, the district was represented by Republican John McHugh, who had a 74% lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union and regularly won re-election by overwhelming margins -- 63% in 2006, and 65% in 2008, both bad years for the GOP.
Appointed by President Obama to be Secretary of the Army, McHugh saw his Senate confirmation delayed by Republicans until mid-September. New York's Democratic Gov. David Paterson didn't call for the special election until Sept. 29, by which time the three candidates were already lined up.
The Democrats' first-choice candidate begged off, leaving the party's nomination to Owens, a Plattsburgh lawyer. What shocked and angered many Republicans -- both in New York and nationwide -- was the way the state GOP leadership hand-picked Scozzafava, a state legislator so liberal as to be to the left of many Democrats in Congress. Conservative columnist Michelle Malkin described Scozzafava as an "ACORN-Friendly, Big Labor-Backing, Tax-and-Spend Radical in GOP Clothing."
Hoffman has explained that Scozzafava's connections with county GOP chairmen likely influenced the state party's decision to choose her over eight other candidates seeking the Republican nomination. "It was an anointment . . . The party bosses, the lords of the backroom, made this selection," Hoffman said Wednesday in an interview with reporters and bloggers.
While Hoffman blamed local political loyalties for the GOP's pick of Scozzafava, it has sparked bitter resentments on Capitol Hill, where GOP conservatives see the pick as the latest example of bungling by National Republican Congressional Committee staffers. As one Republican House member told The Prowler last week, he and his conservative colleagues "blame the NRCC staff for apparently not doing its job."
Ninety percent of House Republican members have reportedly refused to donate to the Scozzafava campaign, and House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence of Indiana has notably refused to endorse her. When conservative Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling, under pressure from House GOP leadership, spoke up in support of Scozzafava, it caused a firestorm of criticism from conservatives.
Hammered by hard-hitting ads from Hoffman -- as well as from the free-market Club For Growth, which has backed the Conservative Party candidate -- Scozzafava's campaign was reportedly nearly broke earlier this week. But Friday, the Republican National Committee confirmed to Congressional Quarterly that it had made a "six-figure" transfer to the NRCC in order to fund the Scozzafava campaign -- producing yet another round of conservative denunciations of national GOP leadership. The grassroots outcry grew even louder when it was learned that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was also supporting Scozzafava.
Among Hoffman's supporters are Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol, the political action committee of the ACU, conservative talk-radio host Fred Thompson, the pro-life Susan B. Anthony List, and the influential GOP conservative blog Red State.
This explains the "deluge of stuff" the Hoffman campaign has been dealing with this week, but the Conservative candidate's staff -- nearly all of them veteran Republican operatives, Ryan says -- are strongly optimistic about Hoffman's chances.
"Most people outside the state don't understand New York state politics," Ryan said, noting that no GOP candidate has won election to a statewide office in New York without the Conservative endorsement since 1974. "The Conservative Party is looked at as the Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval by most Republican voters."
Another source close to the Hoffman campaign confirmed tonight that former House Majority Leader Dick Armey is expected to campaign for Hoffman next week. A Texan who is now chairman of the pro-market group Freedomworks, Armey was a key leader of fiscal conservatives in the House GOP during the "Contract With America" era of the 1990s.
Freedomworks was a main sponsor of last month's 9/12 March On DC, which drew a huge crowd to the Capitol as part of the Tea Party movement that began early this year and has sparked rallies nationwide. Hoffman has been endorsed by the 9/12 project, the political arm of the Tea Party movement. In an exclusive interview late Friday, the candidate said he hopes to have as many as 500 Tea Party volunteers nationwide assisting his campaign locally in the final week before the Nov. 3 election.
"They're getting excited about my campaign because I'm the Reagan conservative they're looking for," Hoffman said by telephone, shortly after attending the official opening of a new local campaign headquarters in Plattsburgh. "They're coming from around the country to help us out."
Top aides to the campaign say they expect the next poll -- from Quinnipiac, due out next week -- will show even more gains for the Conservative candidate. Stressing the need for more campaign cash to maintain his momentum, Hoffman predicted that Scozzafava's support will "continue dropping" while he focuses more on the Democrat, Owens.
"We're going to show that he supports the Pelosi agenda," Hoffman said. He said Owens has expressed support for both the Big Labor-backed "card check" legislation and for massive "stimulus" spending, policies that Hoffman says are unpopular with the 23rd District voters he's been meeting along the campaign trail.
"Everybody's concerned about the economy and the runaway government spending," he said.
UPDATE 10/18: Conservatives Ask, 'What Will Sarah Palin Do?'
NY-23: PREVIOUSLY IN THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR:
- The Great RINO Hunt in Upstate New York October 16, 2009
- UPDATE: Conservative Hoffman Gains in N.Y. Special Election October 15, 2009
- Huckabee and Hoffman October 15, 2009
- RINO 'On the Run' in NY23 Special Election October 14, 2009
- Losing It Over Scozzafava October 8, 2009
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aree| 10.17.09 @ 12:07AM
Pretty good post. I just found your site and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed browsing your posts.
In any case I’ll be subscribing to your blog and I hope you post again soon!
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Fionnagh| 10.17.09 @ 3:18AM
It is extremely helpful to post articles like this, focusing on the campaigns of conservative candidates. Although I am a WA State resident, I contribute to candidates running in other states, and now you have provided me with another candidate I will be happy to finance to the small degree that I can. People, this is not just about a NY campaign. It is about getting conservative candidates into office all across America. May I respectfully suggest that whatever you can spare, send it to Hoffman?
JKelley| 10.18.09 @ 9:25AM
Fionanagh, You are rite on the money. I have been thinking about this race for a few days. Came to your conclusion from Nashville. Will do the same in the future when I see a conservative underdog running for election anywhere is USA. We must all join and fight together.
SuzieQ| 10.18.09 @ 12:02PM
Hubby and I are also 'Tea-Baggers' who now donate to conservative candidates instead of the RNC. We use to be residents of upstate NY until the taxes and weather chased us out, so we are particularly interested in this race. Easy to donate with Paypal or Credit Card! http://www.doughoffmanforcongress.com/
karen martin| 10.17.09 @ 10:38AM
Doug Hoffman certainly IS a different sort of candidate. Yesterday I went online and donated what I THOUGHT was $25.00 to his campaign, but I erroneously typed a comma where a period should be and accidently donated $2,500. By afternoon I received a call from his staffers asking if I had made a mistake ... holy cow! They let me know they'd be crediting my account. I was stunned by this evidence of integrity by Mr. Hoffman's campaign. I left off the call by asking them to "kick A$$" in NY! while I live in SC, I want to support this good candidate, especially in the wake of party and prominent leaders endorsement of his disastrous RINO opponent .
Lullaby's, Legends and Lies| 10.18.09 @ 10:17AM
Karen: I don’t live in New York anymore, but I still really do love the State. Despite the fact that it’s being governed by the craziest of left-wing Democrats. But the GOP/RNC there, are still not listening to us, despite everything that’s been going on this year. Here they are again, offering us up yet another RINO for our consideration, that they think we’ll get behind. But this is exactly what New York doesn’t need anymore of (we’ve got enough Democrats in NY already-trust me on this!!). So I’m following you lead here Karen, now I don’t have $2,500 to donate like yourself, but I just sent $200 to the Hoffman campaign myself. So now I’m cheering on two things from my old home State this fall, my Yankees, and Doug Hoffman. Hopefully his victory in this Special Election, will wake up the GOP/RNC Nationwide, and they’ll start listening to what the 9/12 Protesters where trying to make them hear. We want real Republicans or Conservatives to represent us, not more RINO’s. So the next time they pick somebody in their “backroom”, it better be the real deal, or it’s no deal at all.
jim d| 10.17.09 @ 9:05PM
To Karen Martin:
Holy cow is right it's a good thing your not a dem supporter. Remember obumer shut the recorders off so no one could trace who or what country the donation came from. You likely would'nt get it back without a fight. Good thing you support the honest party. THANKS america needs all the help she can get.
hello| 10.17.09 @ 11:20PM
Doug Hoffman lives in Lake Placid - Lake Placid is NOT in the 23rd Congressional District. Nice point to leave out of the article...you national folks have no idea what it takes to build a majority. Thanks for handing us Congressman Owens - MORONS.
Robert Stacy McCain| 10.18.09 @ 5:41AM
Anonymous troll "hello" wrote: Doug Hoffman lives in Lake Placid - Lake Placid is NOT in the 23rd Congressional District.
Stop spreading disinformation, you miserable, lying troll. Saranac Lake is in the district (the district line runs just south of Saranac Lake). Hoffman's business is in Lake Placid, which is a 10-mile drive from Hoffman's hometown of Saranac Lake.
There are these things called "facts," and you can't just make them up. Remind me to talk to Jim Antle about the troll probelm around here.
huiker2| 10.18.09 @ 6:16AM
I have always donated to the R party but with the likes of Scozaffava vying for election to represent the 23rd District in NYS I sent my donation to Doug Hoffman the Conservative republican instead! We are making progress before 2010! Vote Hoffman!!!!!
Yosemeti Sam| 10.18.09 @ 10:00AM
Remember Sarah Palin?
Where's she at - in this chronicle moment for GOP 'conservative' advancement?
Is she in for a pound but not for a penny?
Hmmmmmm.
Tim | 10.27.09 @ 3:11AM
Sam,
Seems Sarah Palin is willing to look the GOP establishment in the eye, and without blinking, back the conservative over the establishment, just like she said she would. Newt, you've disappointed me...
Go Doug!! Go Sarah!!
A mom| 10.18.09 @ 1:36PM
I've given twice already -- once via a Club for Growth email/link and once directly to the Hoffman campaign site. I emailed my friends and relatives and some of them have donated, too.
I will never give so much as ONE RED CENT to any Republican Committees again, EVER, because of their record of pushing liberal candidates. I'll give money to candidates of my choice. I've also given to Chuck DeVore who's running against Barbara "Call Me Senator" Boxer.
Quatermaster| 10.18.09 @ 4:32PM
And the RNC wonders why we won't give to them.
I plan to put the name "Scozzafava" on any literature I get from them and send it back. No money from me.
LarryK12309| 10.18.09 @ 9:07PM
Here we're just getting over the disaster of the special election in the 20th NY congressional district where Scott Murphy (D) defeated Jim Tedisco (R) by a questionable margin.
I suspect there's a divide and conquer thing going on in the 23rd. Split the GOP vote and New york loses yet another Republican seat.
Of course what do I know. I live in the ultra liberal 21st district where the Working Families (ACORN) party gets more votes than the Conservative party. :-(
mike in tn| 10.18.09 @ 10:26PM
just gave money to a political candidate
didn't think i would again after gwb 2000
Ronald Schofell| 10.19.09 @ 4:10PM
I am an old time republican and have voted that way all my life, but i will not vote for Ms Scozzafava because of her stance on same sex marriages and for the way she treats her constiuents, so i have decided i will vote for Mr Hoffman, i feel he's my best choice and the best choice for the job since all the democrats seem to want to do is spend more money
Michael O'Rourke| 10.21.09 @ 3:16PM
Just contributed to Hoffman, just heard Rush discuss the race, just discusted with Newt and the mamby pansy Republicans who don't get why we are all mad. Party bosses returning political favors, selecting our next congresswoman is not what's going to happen anymore.
This is a new day, a new time. You wanted to see a new Republican Party, you're seeing it. It's called the tea party conservatives. We are not giving up on the GOP we are taking it back. GO DOUG HOFFMAN!!!
arline gordon| 10.22.09 @ 7:31PM
i'm outraged at the republican national committee and newt gingrich of not supporting a true conservative doug hoffman instead supporting a true liberal when are the republican's going to learn we want true conservative's.
Sam| 10.31.09 @ 5:42PM
It has been said that Doug Hoffman used to have intercourse with farm animals. Conservative?????
dick| 11.4.09 @ 2:36PM
Hoffman runs 18% worse than McHugh did in the last election--and loses in a district where there are 50,000 more Republicans than Democrats. That takes true talent--run him and Michelle Malkin for the White House in 2012.
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Stree Overlord| 4.15.11 @ 10:27AM
Hoffman runs 18% worse than McHugh did in the last election--and loses in a district where there are 50,000 more Republicans than Democrats. That takes true talent--run him and Michelle Malkin for the White House in 2012. Stree Overlord
Stree Overlord| 4.15.11 @ 10:34AM
i'm outraged at the republican national committee and newt gingrich of not supporting a true conservative doug hoffman instead supporting a true liberal when are Zhong Hua Niu Bianthe republican's going to learn we want true conservative's.
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