The best hope to stop the Democratic attempt to wreck the
health care system is the self-preservation instinct of moderate
Democrats. Health care reform is growing less popular,
especially among seniors, who used to punish Republicans for
suggesting cuts in Medicare.
Explains Karl Rove in the Wall Street Journal:
Among seniors, opposition to ObamaCare hit 63% in last month's
Economist/YouGov Poll. But the number from that poll that
should spook Democrats is this: 47% of seniors said they
"strongly" oppose health-care reform, just 27% "strongly"
support it. Seniors are the biggest consumers of health care,
and their family members will probably take their concerns
seriously. Seniors will likely cast about 20% of the votes next
year.
The trend behind these numbers is that voters are turning away
from Democrats. In 2006, the year the GOP lost control of
Congress, Democrats enjoyed a double-digit lead in several
"generic ballot" polls-a measure of voters' party preference.
Democrats held that lead until this year. Today, Gallup's
generic ballot shows Democrats have a razor thin 46% to 44%
edge. According to Gallop's numbers, independents now favor
Republicans by nine points.
The numbers may get worse for Democrats if they pass a
health-care bill. Why? Because Senate Finance Committee
Chairman Max Baucus (D., Mont.) wants to frontload the reforms
with distasteful things. Under his plan, tax hikes and Medicare
and Medicaid cuts kick in immediately, while new benefits are
delayed for two-and-a-half years. Voters likely won't warm to
reforms that slam them next year while promising benefits down
the road.
The Democrats face the greatest danger if they win and pass
something like the Baucus plan, which will impose costs before
any alleged benefits. But the rest of us will be a greatest
risk as well, since it will be hard to step back, no matter how
bad the consequences, once the system has been
nationalized. Which means that it is imperative to stop
Obamacare.
