The Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday that the
Finance Committee's health care bill would reduce the deficit by
$81 billion over 10
years, but that analysis assumes that future lawmakers will
follow through on the Medicare cuts proposed in the legislation.
And as the CBO acknowledged, historically Congress has not
followed through on cuts to government programs.
"These projections assume that the proposals are enacted and
remain unchanged throughout the next two decades, which is often
not the case for major legislation," the CBO noted. "For example,
the sustainable growth rate (SGR) mechanism governing Medicare's
payments to physicians has frequently been modified (either
through legislation or administrative action) to avoid reductions
in those payments."
Writing for Investor's Business Daily, David Hogberg
reminds us:
The SGR is a formula put into law in the late 1990s that is
supposed to trigger automatic cuts in Medicare payments to
physicians if those payments grow too quickly....
But physicians groups have opposed the SGR since 2003 and
successfully pushed Congress to suspend the cuts every year
since.