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The common assumption is that it would be devastating for President Barack Obama and the Democrats if they don't pass something on health care.  But what if they win and pass something that is deeply unpopular?

As Don Lambro points out in the Washington Times, the president is losing the popularity game:

The White House remains in deep denial about the growing unpopularity of President Obama's government health care plan.

Recent polls not only show that a clear majority of voters disapprove of his government-run entitlement plan; they also show that key groups who make up that majority - seniors and independents - are now moving away from the Democrats and toward Republicans in the 2010 election cycle.

Yet there was White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs on Monday telling reporters "the president believes health care is in better shape ... we think health care is in a better place."

But the highly regarded Rasmussen poll reported earlier Monday that "just 41 percent of voters nationwide now favor the health care reform proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That's down two points from a week ago and the lowest level of support yet measured."

The Rasmussen poll shows that a 56 percent majority of Americans now oppose the plan, and a slight 47 percent to 46 percent plurality say that its passage is unlikely.

Perhaps most telling of all, senior citizens are strongly opposed to the $1 trillion plan - with a muscular 59 percent of them opposed and just 33 percent in favor. Significantly, only 16 percent of Americans over 65 years of age "strongly favor" the Democratic bills, while 46 percent are "strongly opposed."

Maybe these numbers would turn around in the aftermath of passage of some compromise measure.  But maybe not.  Democratic congressional candidates might find it rough going if the administration is touting as its biggest success a policy opposed by the majority of Americans.

About the Author

Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and the Senior Fellow in International Religious Persecution at the Institute on Religion and Public Policy. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of Beyond Good Intentions: A Biblical View of Politics (Crossway).

http://spectator.org/blog/2009/10/01/can-obama-afford-to-win-on-hea
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