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Why Obama Is Pulling the Rug Out from Under Paterson
President Barack Obama has taken the unprecedented step of trying to persuade New York Gov. David Paterson not to seek election to a full term in his own right. The conventional wisdom is that Obama fears that Paterson's unpopularity will drag down the rest of the Democratic ticket in New York. But New York Post columnist Frederic Dicker goes further: he argues that Obama is worried about the political revival of Rudy Giuliani.
Giuliani rose to prominence by taking out New York City's first black mayor after the public grew dissatisfied with the incumbent. Polls show him poised to defeat New York's first black governor under at least roughly comparable circumstances. Dicker suggests that Obama might be concerned he'll do the same to the first black president.
Lawrence Auster disagrees. I also have my doubts. If Obama's concerns truly ran along these lines, why would he not similarly undermine Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, whose rise and appeal to voters is much more similar to Obama's than Paterson's? I suppose Dicker would argue that neither Charlie Baker nor Christy Mihos -- much less Tim Cahill -- pose a Giuliani-style threat to Obama in 2012. But how much of a threat can Giuliani really pose if he imploded after a year atop the national polls, with memories of his mayoralty and 9/11 leadership still at least somewhat fresh, after a stint as governor that will be too brief too allow him to accomplish much of anything before running for president?
Comments
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Nick| 9.22.09 @ 10:42AM
Anyone who thinks Giuliani is ever going to be president is living in fantasy land.
So I can buy that B.O. fears him.
Scott | 9.22.09 @ 10:55AM
Regardless of any threats (real or imagined) to Obama by Guiliani, the mere reality of a Republican victory in what is generally (but not entirely accurately) considered to be one of the bluest of the blue states, especially if it has ripples down the ballot, would be quite damaging to Obama and the Democrats. Moreover, any progress by Guiliani in getting NY under control, while probably not enough to allow him to run, would bolster the Republicans in 2012, when their best strategy would be to call for massive devolution of power to the states. Poll after poll, not to mention the Tea Parties, have shown that there is considerable anxiety about the amount of power being concentrated in Washington. The Republicans would be wise to tap into that by calling for a restoration of federalism, and being able to point to examples of competent Republican governance at the state level would only help.
Dixie Pixie| 9.22.09 @ 12:14PM
Rudy Giuliani's political base is the New Yorker diaspora. The last election proved he has little to no political support in the rest of the country. This is not surprising as a New Yorker conservative is a Alabama liberal. As a result he has no chance at a presidential run but has a good chance at the New York governorship.
Dixie Pixie| 9.22.09 @ 12:25PM
All political bets are off if Rudy Giuliani changes party and runs against Gov. Paterson as a Democrat.
wbfrank| 9.22.09 @ 4:11PM
Patterson is a very basic Dem: full of lies, scandal and politcal dirty tricks.
He and others such as Obama, Jefferson Dem-Louisiana define the Democratic Party.
But, maybe just maybe, he sees a substantial part of the US voters have awaken to and do not like the Dems that they see in office. And to me there are many RINO's that need to go as well!
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