For a time it looked like the Democrats might expand their Senate
majority in 2010. But the winds of politics have started to
turn towards the Republicans. Reports
National Journal:
The death of Edward Kennedy has given the
Democrats a real -- if short-term -- look at life in the Senate
without 60 votes. Given the worsening political environment for
the party and President Obama, it looks more
possible than ever that Republicans can keep Democrats under 60
in 2011-12 as well.
On paper, the GOP has more vulnerable
seats on the table than do Democrats. They have to defend
open seats in two states carried by Obama (Ohio and New
Hampshire) and one in a state Obama barely lost (Missouri).
Republicans breathed a sigh of relief when Sen. Jim
Bunning, their most vulnerable incumbent, chose to
retire. Even so, holding the seat isn't a slam dunk. Meanwhile,
Democrats have just one open seat in real danger today
(Illinois) and just one incumbent, Connecticut's
Christopher Dodd, who has been running
consistently behind his potential GOP opponents in polling.
Both of those states, of course, are deep blue.
Yet it's also clear that as Obama's job approval ratings fall,
it's taking a toll on Democratic incumbents who, earlier this
year, were seen as relatively safe. New polls show Democratic
Sens. Blanche Lincoln (Ark.), Michael
Bennet (Colo.), Harry Reid (Nev.) and
Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) as vulnerable. A GOP
poll released in late July showed popular North Dakota Gov.
John Hoeven (R) handily beating Sen.
Byron Dorgan (D).
It's still 14 months till the election. But President
Barack Obama's increasing travails are likely to boost GOP
fortunes.
About the Author
Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and the Senior Fellow in International Religious Persecution at the Institute on Religion and Public Policy. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of Beyond Good Intentions: A Biblical View of Politics (Crossway).
