Liberal groups in California are fretting over whether to
challenge the state's marriage amendment, known as Proposition 8,
in 2010 or 2012. Earlier this month, Equality California
announced that it would put off a ballot initiative
legalizing gay marriage until ‘12 because it needed more time to
gather support. But other liberal groups are bucking that and
want to proceed in ‘10.
The political climate next year could influence the Left's
fortunes on the issue. It's early days, but indications are that
the midterms will be tough for Democrats. The Politico has some
observations on that, pointing out that historic trends
"point to Republican House gains ... particularly after facing
two brutal election cycles where the party lost seats in every
region and even in some of the most conservative states in the
nation."
If de-stimulus, cap-and-trade, cash for clunkers, and a
health-care takeover, et al., are enough to get out more
conservative voters and peel away some independents and moderate
Democrats, a ballot initiative legalizing gay marriage is going
to be a tough sell in 2010, even in deep blue California.
Truth is, though, that marriage amendments typically defy
electoral logic. Last year was a wipeout for Republicans and
triumph for Democrats, yet California passed a marriage amendment
by a
comfortable margin, despite Barack Obama's name on the top of
the ballot and a de-motivated Republican electorate. So, any way
you slice it, homosexual marriage is still going to be a tough
sell in the Big Enchilada, either next year or in 2012.
