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A Tough Sell in the Big Enchilada

By David N. Bass on 8.31.09 @ 4:16PM

Liberal groups in California are fretting over whether to challenge the state's marriage amendment, known as Proposition 8, in 2010 or 2012. Earlier this month, Equality California announced that it would put off a ballot initiative legalizing gay marriage until ‘12 because it needed more time to gather support. But other liberal groups are bucking that and want to proceed in ‘10.

The political climate next year could influence the Left's fortunes on the issue. It's early days, but indications are that the midterms will be tough for Democrats. The Politico has some observations on that, pointing out that historic trends "point to Republican House gains ... particularly after facing two brutal election cycles where the party lost seats in every region and even in some of the most conservative states in the nation."

If de-stimulus, cap-and-trade, cash for clunkers, and a health-care takeover, et al., are enough to get out more conservative voters and peel away some independents and moderate Democrats, a ballot initiative legalizing gay marriage is going to be a tough sell in 2010, even in deep blue California.

Truth is, though, that marriage amendments typically defy electoral logic. Last year was a wipeout for Republicans and triumph for Democrats, yet California passed a marriage amendment by a comfortable margin, despite Barack Obama's name on the top of the ballot and a de-motivated Republican electorate. So, any way you slice it, homosexual marriage is still going to be a tough sell in the Big Enchilada, either next year or in 2012.

View all comments (4) | Leave a comment

Scott Pandich| 8.31.09 @ 4:44PM

Just to throw a little extra chaos into the calculus, the only reason Prop. 8 passed was because of the large turnout of African-Americans, who were the most ardent supporters of Prop. 8. So while 2010 is looking as though it may be a rough time for Democrats, in 2012 Obama will be running for reelection and, quite probably, generate a higher than normal African American turnout. So 2010 may have a climate that is less amenable to liberalism in general, but 2012 may see a larger number of the group most opposed to gay marriage show up to the polls.

Richard Baker| 8.31.09 @ 9:06PM

Homosexual. Synonymous with perversion.

Alan Brooks| 8.31.09 @ 10:18PM

yeah, Baker, blacks wouldn't like it if gay white pervs (such as the Jacko-types) were to touch their 13 year old sons, nephews, and cousins.

Blacks can get violent...

Skip MacLure| 9.2.09 @ 12:07AM

The gays are after marriage to suborn and destroy the traditional family unit. We all know that. Here on the left coast they are also after our kids through impending legislation creating a dedicated "Harvey Milk Day" in our public schools. There will be no notification of parents nor an option for parents to decline and hold their children out of school on that day. It will be recorded as
an unexcused absence. I have nothing personally against gays or Harvey Milk though he was certainly no paragon of morality....I take great umbrage when you try to come after MY kids....This travesty is being perpetrated with the full help and cooperation of the CTA which should tell anyone with more than a single digit IQ what our public schools have become. This thoroughly propagandized 'celebration' of the homosexual lifestyle will target children as young as five years old....by any definition I can think of this is child abuse....Come after my kids at your own risk.
Semper Fi
Skip MacLure