While the White House has been floating
the idea of using reconciliation to pass health care
legislation with a simple majority of 51 votes, it should be seen
as an empty threat. Let's even set aside the fact that it would
be a declaration of war that would shut down the Senate, that it
would remove any pretense that Obama is a post-partisan
president, and that ramming an unpopular bill down the throats of
the public is not a politically astute move. Even if Democrats
wanted to risk all of that for the greater goal of passing health
care legislation, they couldn't do it.
The budget reconciliation procedure has to be used for tax and
spending matters, meaning that if the White House wanted to pass
a bill in this matter, they'd have to drop provisions that are
central to Democratic proposals. So, for instance, Democrats
wouldn't be able to create health insurance exchanges, to force
insurers to cover those with pre-existing conditions, create a
new government-run plan, pass the health, wellness and prevention
provisions, and so forth. Nobody remotely serious thinks that
you'd be able to pass comprehensive legislation in this manner.
Democratic Sen. Kent Contrad has
said, "The Senate parliamentarian said to us that if you try
to write substantive health reform in reconciliation, you'll end
up with Swiss cheese." Even liberal bloggers Kevin
Drum and
Ezra Klein have poured cold water on the idea. While Klein
says that Democrats may still be able to move the ball down the
field with reconciliation by passing some watered down
legislation, I don't think that makes any sense. For one, I don't
see how it would be worth Democrats risking all of the political
blowback they'd suffer by using reconciliation just to end up
with a swiss cheese bill. And beyond that, if Democrats are going
to pass a bill without a government plan anyway, then liberals
may as well drop their objections and vote for a compromise
measure that they can pass the clean way.
So, with that said, I wouldn't get too excited by this talk of
reconciliation. It's just an act of chest-pounding from a
desperate White House that is watching its top legislative goal
get ripped apart by infighting within its own party. I call
bluff.
