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Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is in a state of free fall, according to the latest polling (pdf) from the University of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe. Fully 52 percent of voters view him unfavorably while 36 percent view him favorably. Consider that Patrick won the 2006 gubernatorial election with 56 percent of the vote to Republican Kerry Healey's 35 percent.

Every demographic group in the state except Democrats, voters under age 35, and Western Massachusetts residents disapprove of Patrick. Only 16 percent of independents, now a plurality of voters, approve of his performance in office; 68 percent disapprove. Despite being the commonwealth's first black governor, African-Americans disapprove of Patrick by a 52 percent to 44 percent margin.

Those are the kinds of numbers that sink Democrats even in Massachusetts, and Patrick trails both Republican candidates for governor (though Christy Mihos' lead is within the margin of error). This is true even though over 60 percent of voters don't know enough to have an opinion of Harvard Pilgrim CEO Charlie Baker, the candidate with the strongest lead over Patrick.

Patrick's campaign had a lot in common with Barack Obama's: the "Together We Can" theme, a post-partisan and post-racial appeal, even some of the same advisers. But even in one of the most liberal and Democratic states in the country, it has not survived the test of reality. And Patrick brought significantly more experience running things in government and the private sector than Obama.

As I reported earlier, however, a possible gubernatorial run by Democrat-turned-independent treasurer Tim Cahill keeps hope alive for Patrick. The poll shows them tied at the low 30s with the Republicans near the low 20s. (Patrick is also banking on an economic turnaround.) Republicans are counting on the usual Massachusetts trend of the third party candidate's support melting away by Election Day, but if Cahill is seen as the more viable anti-Patrick candidate Republicans may be the third party.