Is President Obama's long honeymoon finally coming to an end?
It's a question I've been hesitant to ask so far in his
presidency, and I only do so now with caution. It's important to
keep in mind that approval ratings fluctuate week to week and
Obama still remains generally popular. That said, we now have a
flurry of recent data suggesting that his support is starting to
wane.
Yesterday, I noted a Quinnipiac
poll in the political bellwether state of Ohio showing
Obama's approval rating dropping to 49 percent, and today
Rasmussen finds that he received his
lowest rating ever in the firm's "Presidential Approval
Index." While Rasmussen has been criticized by some for releasing
polls that tend to skew Republican, Obama's approval rating has
dropped to 56 percent in the latest Gallup daily tracking
poll, also a new low. At the same time, his Gallup
disapproval rating has climbed to 36 percent, its highest ever.
While, taken individually, each of these polling results could be
seen as a blip, taken together, they indicate public perception
of Obama is slipping -- something that can be seen in the Gallup
chart below.
It's quite possible that what we're seeing now is just a hiccup,
and that Obama will bounce back in a week or so, just as he did
on many occasions during the campaign when it seemed his appeal
was fading. However, it should be noted that the recent downtick
in his approval ratings has coincided with the release of
unemployment data and amid criticism that his economic stimulus
bill is not working. And given that even the White House now
expects unemployment to keep creeping up into the double-digits,
it likely means that we can anticipate serveral more months of
bad job reports, each one putting pressure on Obama. It's
important to remember that the next few months will be cruical
for the health care fight, and the best thing Democrats have
going for them on that front is that Obama remains popular. If he
begins to lose credibility, people will become more skeptical
when he claims that health care legislation will save money, not
add to the debt, not lead to tax increase, not mean a government
takeover, not mean that people lose their current insurance, etc.