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Obama Reaches Low Point in Daily Gallup Poll

By Philip Klein on 7.8.09 @ 5:18PM

Is President Obama's long honeymoon finally coming to an end? It's a question I've been hesitant to ask so far in his presidency, and I only do so now with caution. It's important to keep in mind that approval ratings fluctuate week to week and Obama still remains generally popular. That said, we now have a flurry of recent data suggesting that his support is starting to wane.

Yesterday, I noted a Quinnipiac poll in the political bellwether state of Ohio showing Obama's approval rating dropping to 49 percent, and today Rasmussen finds that he received his lowest rating ever in the firm's "Presidential Approval Index." While Rasmussen has been criticized by some for releasing polls that tend to skew Republican, Obama's approval rating has dropped to 56 percent in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll, also a new low. At the same time, his Gallup disapproval rating has climbed to 36 percent, its highest ever. While, taken individually, each of these polling results could be seen as a blip, taken together, they indicate public perception of Obama is slipping -- something that can be seen in the Gallup chart below.

It's quite possible that what we're seeing now is just a hiccup, and that Obama will bounce back in a week or so, just as he did on many occasions during the campaign when it seemed his appeal was fading. However, it should be noted that the recent downtick in his approval ratings has coincided with the release of unemployment data and amid criticism that his economic stimulus bill is not working. And given that even the White House now expects unemployment to keep creeping up into the double-digits, it likely means that we can anticipate serveral more months of bad job reports, each one putting pressure on Obama. It's important to remember that the next few months will be cruical for the health care fight, and the best thing Democrats have going for them on that front is that Obama remains popular. If he begins to lose credibility, people will become more skeptical when he claims that health care legislation will save money, not add to the debt, not lead to tax increase, not mean a government takeover, not mean that people lose their current insurance, etc.

View all comments (41) | Leave a comment

Bob| 7.8.09 @ 6:50PM

Philip, this is all related to jobs. As I've stated several times, jobs are a lagging indicator and you will not see a reversal until the end of this year/beginning of next. I've also said for over 6 months now that you will see double digit unemployment numbers. In fact, Romer said that in Jan/Feb (she is the most reliable of Obama's economic advisors). Obama's approval ratings will continue to drop until the job picture improves. When we are through with this economic cycle, the numbers will stabilize and grow -- albeit slowly. Also remember that only about 10% of the stimulus dollars are spent. The infrastructure spending won't really begin to affect these numbers until the beginning of next year because of the lead times involved.

That said, I fully agree with your analysis and conclusions. You are on target again without overstatement.

JimE| 7.8.09 @ 7:31PM

Bob,
What is it like going through life as an unthinking, mindless drone?

Bob| 7.8.09 @ 8:14PM

I wouldn't know, JimE -- what is it like? So, what does an unthinking, mindless drone lemming have in common with a Palin supporter????

EVERYTHING....

R. Dittmar| 7.8.09 @ 8:28PM

One thing that gives me comfort is the thought that a majority of Americans remain totally disgusted with Washington in general. A few years ago the polls seem to show that even though voters were completely fed up with Bush’s incompetence, they became even more repulsed with Congress. Washington pols may simply have no margin for error anymore because most Americans automatically assume the worst.

Jobs may come back for reasons that have little to do with government and Obama may return to popularity. I think there’s a very good chance however that as things continue to deteriorate any good will that voters have will totally evaporate never to come back.

Liberal Reader| 7.8.09 @ 8:37PM

Obama is a serious politician.

I mean that in two ways. He's "serious" in the sense that he takes governing seriously. He studies and consults and thinks. He actually reads books about issues he's deciding.

But he's also a serious politician in that he's extremely competitive.

If you think he's going to sort of drift into low numbers, and cede control over the manner in which he is perceived to the folks at Fox News, you're crazy.

He campaigns better than anyone I've ever seen. He's not going to roll over, and he'll not be beaten in 2012 unless another once-in-a-lifetime politician comes along. Chances of that seem slim.

Alan Brooks| 7.8.09 @ 9:28PM

agreed, the GOP can't offer another Reagan because Reagan's dignity is nearly extinct.

Today the hero ('anti-hero' back in the day) is Michael Jackson, who "touched the hearts of children."

Alan Brooks| 7.8.09 @ 9:30PM

agreed, the GOP can't offer another Reagan because Reagan's dignity is nearly extinct.

Alan Brooks| 7.8.09 @ 9:44PM

so just to make sure you get the message, you CAN rest assured he'll not be beaten in 2012 unless another once-in-a-lifetime politician comes along. Chances of that seem slim. Very very slim indeed. yes indeedy. alrighty?

somnolence| 7.8.09 @ 9:59PM

The Anointed One can be readily beaten in 2012 because he ultimately will look back at a now unforseen spectre and crash into a train wreck which is straight ahead. You betca! Mr. Brooks.

somnolence| 7.8.09 @ 10:27PM

Count Basie(who was blacker than Michael Jackson by the way) said it best: "I believe that people were dancing before rock and roll." And tell me true, is O.J. sweet or stale where he is now? To me Michael Jackson is not in the same league as real black heroes such as Malcolm X, Jackie Robinson, or Miles Davis. As far as Obama, in case you haven't noticed, being distracted by all the news over The Gloved One the last two weeks, well, that train wreck is fast approaching. Just ask the chairman of Caterpillar, or even Senator Robert Byrd. Cap and trade could be one of the first nails in the coffin. You betcha!

Alan Brooks| 7.8.09 @ 10:33PM

OJ will serve less than a decade with time off.

but, again, Sominex, you wont bet. I offered to bet a Dole guy in '96 that Clinton would be reelected, but he declined the bet. happens over and over.
Anyway I like Obama better than Bush.

Flower Power| 7.9.09 @ 2:13AM

You like Obama because you're a crappy liberal. Commie.

C4P| 7.9.09 @ 2:17AM

I don't care how competitive Obummer is and I don't care if he's a good politician--15 to 20% unemployment will end his political career. He's a stinkin' fascist anyway.

Country Boy| 7.9.09 @ 7:00AM

yup, zippyBoy is in for a rude awakening if he thinks he can charm to folks into forgetting about the unemployment numbers. Add to that all the "in your face" stuff of his and the Misses's lifestyle, just not good. The 52% who voted for him are starting to see what an ignorant, shallow narcissist zippyBoy really is. In other words, a highly paid scam-artist.

janranch| 7.9.09 @ 7:45AM

The American people are boycoting this administration with a NO spend and Don't buy GM, Chrysler and GE, and soon to be Walmart with their decision to support the Health bill. We don't think our vote counts anymore with the crooked ACORN involvement. So that leaves us no choice but to sink this economy even further. When we get an adult in charge--we will spend $$$$

Jill| 7.9.09 @ 7:56AM

"Jobs lagging" is a WH talking point distributed to the MSM. Lost jobs after 9/11 was the "first indicator" of the supposed Great Depression of 2002 from the Dem Party's talking points at that time. Ascendancy of Marxism and overturning the American Revolution are things ordinary Democrats should be eternally ashamed of, not celebrate. What books does Obama read before making careful decisions to jeopardize our allies existence while empowering dictators who oppress Hondurans, Iranians and N. Koreans? Dems at this thread should realize the campaign is over. Governing has begun, and so far Obama has caused the US to defend an alien agenda contrary to the spirit of American citizens. That this has not yet dawned on you only means your identity as a Democrat has overtaken your ability to judge Obama's actions.

Tim| 7.9.09 @ 8:25AM

"Obama is a serious politician."
True, he won't rollover and quit after his first bloody nose (ahem). But I will take issue with you on him being the best campaigner. Bill Clinton gets my grudging respect for that title. At his speak he shrugged off anything that hit him and went right on.
Meanwhile the GOP apparently has got Bush III warming up. Good Grief. Let's just run McCain again.

Echohawk| 7.9.09 @ 8:46AM

I live in Ohio and times are tough here. Ohioans are pragmatic; if the employment figures don't improve by 2011, it doesn't matter how affable and likable Pres. Obama is, he won't win this bellweather state.

Bill| 7.9.09 @ 8:50AM

Obama isn't a politician, he is a celebrity, an actor who reads off a teleprompter scripted by a writer.
he has not provided CLEAR evidence he is met the prerequisites for the position which he serves.
Reading books to prepare him how to decide on world issues at this point is a little freighting don't you think?
What has been accomplished is providing the Democrats with a super slush fund(Stimulus I), for them to buy votes with in 2010! The money will flow then, when votes are needed for the 2010 elections!
Obama promised what he could not deliver. Now, they say they misjudged the seriousness of the economic situation.
Perhaps, looking at the poll numbers that are just out it, maybe the American people realize they misjudged the situation too!

Deborah D| 7.9.09 @ 9:05AM

I worry about what Bill called the "super slush fund(Stimulus I)" -- ACORN and the Census don't make me much happier. If the mainstream media ever decides to actually do their jobs instead of being a lapdog to The One, they could help their country by shining a bright light on the ACORN-Obama-Stimulus connection. Nothing like the American taxpayers paying for Democrats to be re-elected.

Matthew Vadum (here at Amspec) has been one of the few to looking deeply into the corruption ... we need more.

JP| 7.9.09 @ 9:20AM

I tend to agree with Bob. President Reagan and the GOP in general took big hits in 1982. Like Obama, Reagan was generally liked, but when unemployment hit 9% in 1982 (from 5% in 1981), his approval ratings went down and the GOP lost seats in the mid-term.

That said, one must also realize that in 1981 interest rates went to 19%, inflation dove from 14% to 7%, and oil prices as well as precious metals prices plunged. The economy began to rapidly improve in 1983.

President Obama has no such mitigating factors. President Reagan, while he did begin to run up defecits has much less debt to worry about. The dollar soared (as one would expect when the Fed fixes interest rates so high), and the lowering of the top marginal interest rates from 78% to 28% fueled the consumption based economy we knew so well.

President Obama's defecits run about 25% of the GDP; he is borrowing huge junks of money from future earnings in order to subsidize the take over of GM, Chyrsler, and AIG. He is proposing to borrow another trillion to finance Universal Health Care, and the Waxman Markey Cap and Trade threatens to set forth a trillion dollars in new taxes. The remainder of the Bush 2003 tax cuts are set to expire next year.

None of this bodes well for job creation for 2009 or 2010 -or 2011 and 2012 for that matter.

JP| 7.9.09 @ 9:35AM

"Obama is a serious politician.

I mean that in two ways. He's "serious" in the sense that he takes governing seriously. He studies and consults and thinks. He actually reads books about issues he's deciding."

Serious as in offering a record number "present" votes during his short time spent in the US Senate. Serious as in inheriting his House Seat from a disgraced Bobby Rush? Serious as in getting his Chicago Times Man David Axelrod to plant gossip in the newspapers about potential rivals?

Liberal Reader:
Obama, until this summer, has had cocooned politcal life. From his time in the Illinois Senate until his inaugeration some 12 years later, he faced not one political challange. His only accomplishments was the authoring of 2 autobiographies. Unlike Bill Clinton, he never faced defeat, nor had he had to build alliances or pay his dues. There is nothing in Obama's past record or life that one could point to and say he is a thoughtful or masterful politician. In reality, he is a political hack that was the product of the Cook County Machine.

There is no indication he reads anything. If he isn't campaigning across "safe districts", he is out of the country where he denounces his own nation, or is falling at the feet of thugs. His only major piece of legislation -The Stimulus- was actually authored by Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Senator Reid.

rob king| 7.9.09 @ 9:46AM

So the bamster 'reads books' when he is faced with a decision....well, alrighty then that makes us all feel better. Books are at best simply the imaginings of some pundit or others little mind. They are NOT based on truth, but merely on the spin of the day. They cannot be based on truth because there will be no truth until there are absolutes, and sorry no signs of that coming any time soon. Maybe the next generation or the one after that will produce a great new direction. It will have to happen, or we perish from idiocy.

jqt| 7.9.09 @ 9:51AM

"There is no indication he reads anything"

Yeah there is , he reads "Urdu poetry"

Bob| 7.9.09 @ 10:00AM

JP -- The fundamentals of the economy are worse now than in 1982 primarily because of the level of consumer debt and the fact that the wealth in the housing market has disappeared. That said, people still vote their pocketbooks and will continue to do so.

rob king -- you said this:

"Books are at best simply the imaginings of some pundit or others little mind. They are NOT based on truth, but merely on the spin of the day."

So the Bible is just imaginings of a little mind. Hmmm.... Is it better to read books and listen to other thoughts, or to not read and just go fishing in waders like Palin? Hmmm....

dmc| 7.9.09 @ 10:06AM

And he reads Pushkin. He told us so....

goodspkr| 7.9.09 @ 10:17AM

"He campaigns better than anyone I've ever seen. He's not going to roll over, and he'll not be beaten in 2012 unless another once-in-a-lifetime politician comes along. Chances of that seem slim. "
Liberal reader

LR, keep telling yourself this. Obama campaigns well when he isn't being specific in anyway. He ran on "hope and change" in 2008 with a financial meltdown going on. This garnered him 53% of the vote.

In 2012 he will have to run on his record. What will unemployment be then? What will prices be then (his policies are highly inflationary)? What will the world look like then (he's siding with Iran, Venazula, etc.) And the MSM is now actually starting to look into his past and are now telling us some unsavory things.

If you think it will take an extraordinary candidate to beat him, you were probably surprised when Jimmy Carter lost.

dmc| 7.9.09 @ 10:39AM

His popularity has always been of the pop culture variety. Wide perhaps, but shallow which makes his support VERY shaky and dependent on the whims of a fickle public. He can't continue to live on the charisma that got him elected (along with facing a very weak opponent in McCain).

If things continue to deteriorate, so will his "popularity". I suspect its starting already.

Tenn Slim| 7.9.09 @ 10:57AM

"they indicate public perception of Obama is slipping" IE Polls...
Local 4 Calendar cafe polls. If Obama hisself walked into one of these, he would be laughed out of the store. The PERCEPTION now EQUALS the ACTUAL. OBNA is on the down turn here in the Big Muddy Delta, for sure.
end
Semper FI

Reilly| 7.9.09 @ 11:06AM

Americans are sick to death of incompetent and corrupt D.C. politicians, deficit spending, and political tin ears. Obama won a lot of independents and some republicans on his empty promise of "hope & change". -->cleaning up D.C., stopping the waste, more transparancy, getting rid of insiders, etc. ad nauseum. In his short tenure he has done the opposite. Tax cheats in his cabinet, stimulus and bailouts for special interests, firing IG's who nail his corrupt buddies, and not only are bills not on the net as promised, they're not even read by congress. And all the above does not even take into consideration his inept handeling of the economy . 2010 will be about throwing out incumbents ~ big time. Hopefully the corrupt Dem majority who is trying to bankrupt this country will loose enough power to stop this lying Chicago street thug from imposing his will on the people, both those who saw through his snake oil and the brain dead who thought he was a messiah.

Trex| 7.9.09 @ 11:19AM

Obama is very beatable. He's anything but invincible. John McCain was a doddering old fool who ran the worst GOP POTUS campaingn in US history & he still came close. When the markets crashed, instead of blaming Wall Street he should have blamed the Democrat controlled Wall Street vis-a-vis Fan/Fred & Goldman Sachs for the mess.

Todd| 7.9.09 @ 1:10PM

I'm a republican, but I cannot vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin. Why are conservative governments so closely tied with christianity? The conservative viewpoint is to have a small goverment that does not intrude on the life of citizens, but christianity is an infectious religion that imposes their beliefs on others.

tonypal| 7.9.09 @ 1:56PM

Todd:

You're no more of a republican than Obama. You also have no understanding of Christians or Christianity. As a Christian, I'll tell you what I want most. I want to be left alone. I don't want government telling me how to order my life. I just want to be left alone.

Now I'm sure that when you start talking about how Christianity "imposes their (sic) beliefs on other," I assume you mean that Christians are overwhelmingly opposed to abortion while you're pro-choice. As someone who is pro-life, I simply want Roe v. Wade, an incoherent decision made by 7 law school grads, overturned. The effect of overturning Roe would be to abide by the 10th amendment and return the matter to the states, where it belongs. If you disagree with this, then please tell me where in the US Constitution you find a right to an abortion. While you're at it, you will get bonus points if you can tell me where it calls for a separation of church and state, another liberal lie. Good luck.

Bob| 7.9.09 @ 2:09PM

tonypal -- the problem is not with Christianity per se, it is with your litmus test that you must be anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage to be elected in the party. I am pro-choice and I happen to agree that Roe was wrongly decided. The fact that I am more fiscally conservative than most of you makes me persona non grata in the Republican party. That is the problem Todd is talking about. Until fiscal and security issues become much more important than social issues to the party, you will not see a turnaround.

jim| 7.9.09 @ 3:00PM

hey, its obama's economy now. if things get worse he won't get re-elected, if they get better he will. people always vote their pocketbook. don't listen to his doublespeak, watch what he does. he would sound pretty reading 'paradise lost'[perhaps the hardest read in history]so watch what he does. and, oh yeah, hold on to your wallets, someone has to pay.......

David| 7.9.09 @ 3:08PM

Obama's negatives will always have a floor that is much higher than a white presidents because the african american community will support him unconditionally because of his skin color regardless of his positions or his competence. Yeah, I said it.

AK| 7.9.09 @ 3:29PM

Listen, we need to stop browbeating the man. The way I see it we are getting exactly what we asked for when we elected him. The majority of us bought into his pie in the sky "hope and change" mantra. An idiot could have realized his policies were going to drive up unemployment, have companies run for cover, and grind the economy to a halt. We own him for at least three and a half more years so let's support him, we asked for it we got it. If we want a change WE THE PEOPLE will have to make a difference despite this administration's failed policies. Let's pull ourselves up by our bootstraps and stop crying in our beer about the bad choice we made for President. Who cares what happens in 2012, we need to get this economy going now. Let's use American ingenuity and intestinal fortitude to succeed despite the economic ballast we are being saddled with. GO AMERICA-

Derold Davs| 7.10.09 @ 8:14AM

The books Obumster reads are Marxist and he is following them to a T. He probably has the Commie Manifesto memorized and is executing it flawlessly. America, you don't realize it yet but you are DEAD and the Liberal Dems have killed you!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Texas001| 7.20.09 @ 12:35PM

Liberal Reader said, "He studies and consults and thinks. He actually reads books about issues he's deciding." Yeah, like the Spendilous Bill. I am sure he read that page by page and over and over. he will read the Cap and Tax bill and the (you have to sign up for abortion in you health care coverage) Health Waste bill.

devan| 8.23.09 @ 6:07PM

The job and economy stats coming from the DC beaurocrats cannot be believed as these folks belong to the federal employee unions who helped elect president prompter. He promised the president of their union that he would increase govt. union jobs dramatically if he was elected & that is where much of the "stimulus" money is going - to govt. jobs. They cannot allow him to be defeated as the union would lose these jobs - and the dues cash flow - and therefore will cook the books however they have to to keep him in office. Beware the govt/media/union complex.