That's what Jim Pinkerton calls
the failure of the stimulus plan to create real jobs and reduce
unemployment. One of the reasons Katrina caused a lasting slide
in George W. Bush's approval numbers is that it shook the
post-9/11 conviction that he was prepared to meet any national
crisis head-on, whether terrorism or non-manmade disasters.
Continued joblessness could similarly shake the popular belief
that Barack Obama is a deliverer of economic Hope and Change for
the masses.
There are only two potential problems: There will not be a
sustained media drumbeat to make sure that Obama takes all of the
blame for the economy in the same way that Bush more or less did
for Katrina. (Many Louisiana voters were close enough to the
facts on the ground to apportion the blame more widely.) The
media reluctance to blame Obama will be compounded by the fact
that the economic hurricane first hit land under Bush's watch.
Even if the unemployment rate doesn't soon improve, how long will
it take for Bush's recession to become Obama's? When will people
demand results in exchange for the (borrowed) trillions being
spent?
Antle, was Reagan ever blamed for the huge debt he created? He
gave money back to people while keeping spending high, i.e.,
something for nothing. Carter caused the problem, right? In the
same manner, this will always be Bush's recession. Everyone
except Fox News and Obama haters on this blog will continue to
blame Bush. Just as most people give Reagan a break on spending
and find excuses, they will do the same with Obama. You cannot
say he didn't try to fix the problem. Haven't you ever done a
repair job and once you start it, you realize it is far worse
than you imagined? This is just human nature.
As for the borrowed money, again look at Reagan. People look at
their condition today, not 20 years from now. The economy will
turn around before the next Presidential election and Obama will
get credit even though we all know this is a cycle. No one will
be able to prove that it would have been the same if we had not
spent the money.
Tim| 7.7.09 @ 10:35AM
Seems like wishful thinking to me.
Aaron| 7.7.09 @ 10:38AM
"When will people demand results in exchange for the (borrowed)
trillions being spent?" When the people rally behind one loud
voice of reason.
Basil Plumley| 7.7.09 @ 11:13AM
Tell us Bob,
How did Reagan create the huge debt?
The last time I checked the Constitution, the House is where all
spending originates. Hmmm..... last I checked, the Dems ran the
House during Reagan's tenure and are currently running the House
as we speak.
The difference is politics. The current high spending is Obama's
idea. The extra spending under Reagan was a trade off for
Reagan's defense proposals.
This "Reagan did it" crap (as well as your putrid Palin posts) is
what earns you the wrath of many posters. Do better.
Reagan wasn't perfect but to compare him to Obama or vice versa
is a reckless disregard for History, Reality, and Common Sense.
L. Ross| 7.7.09 @ 11:47AM
Bob:
Gotta disagree with you somewhat here. I know that it is easy to
blame the prior administration for a very long time, as you
reference with Carter and Reagan.
There is a difference here, however. The economy was actually
lurching along pretty OK for almost all of Bush's two terms. Only
in the last 4 months did it really go to pot. And quite frankly,
Bush immediately began implementing BHO's agenda. This is nothing
like what happened with Reagan and Carter. The economy had been
on the skids for a long time. Even as a young kid, I still
remember those stupid buttons WIN (Whip Inflation Now) that
someone thought would turn the economy around. I think those came
out when Nixon was still president.
Anyway, Reagan took over an economy with runaway stagflation, and
changed the policies of the previous administration.
Incidentally, by investing in the military, Reagan was able to
pump money into R&D in the high tech sector of the economy.
You know, the kind of spending that develops spinoffs used around
the world. Simultaneously, he was able to win the cold war in
about 10 years. I know, I was in the Strategic Air Command when
our jets came off alert. All of this has led to a real savings in
the military budget. The military today is only about 2/3rds the
size it was in the 80's.
In contrast, BHO is spending a bunch of money the states should
have been spending for years on road repairs. Encouraging states
to neglect their basic infrastructure needs and just wait for
Uncle Sugar to nut up the money. That is really going to be a
huge stimulus in the long run. That asphalt and concrete
technology is really cutting edge stuff.
Finally, as I have said over and over again in posts, the odds
that this stimulus money will be spent in an effective, efficient
manner are miniscule. It is impossible to use the scientific
method (running repeated experiments in a closed system, changing
one variable at a time to observe the outcome) in a nation's
economy. But without repeated experiments, we really have no idea
where, when, or how the money should be spent.
You know, Bob, I have given you credit in the past for being
sharp. I think I gave you too much credit.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 12:18PM
Basil, thanks for the laugh. Just ponder this question... Do you
think it is important to pay your debts? Reagan was creating
debt, and he knew it. He could have vetoed more spending bills or
not reduced taxes as much. However, he knew the debt needed to be
repaid in the future and it wouldn't affect him in his lifetime.
I was against the debt created then -- and I'm against the debt
created now. Remember that Republicans were totally in power at
the beginning of this millennium. There is a pox on the houses of
all politicians in this regard.
L. Ross -- in regard to Reagan's problem versus Obama's, I do
strongly believe that the economy is in much worse condition now
than it was in 1980. It has to do with the type of debt and who
owned it. Individuals had much reserve capacity in the 80's, and
virtually none right now. Therefore, people could survive a
downturn then. Now, it is much more difficult. Besides, then
manufacturing played a much more important role in GDP creation.
Today, GDP creation is dependent primarily on consumption.
You really cannot say, in retrospect, that the economy was going
strong until the end of the Bush term. In fact, we know that the
housing bubble was building strongly during the entire Bush
administration. It's like going 60 miles per hour and coming to a
cliff. If you had read the map, you would have slowed down so you
could stop in time. However, the inertia of the housing bubble
and credit crisis was so large, that nothing could have stopped
it.
Regarding the Obama stimulus -- as I've said many times, I don't
believe that government spending, in general, is efficient in
creating GDP, I also don't believe that tax cuts work as the
macro-economic numbers show. I would have made a cut in payroll
taxes and increased infrastructure spending as you have
indicated. Payroll tax cuts immediately put money into the
economy as they go primarily to people who have no savings
reserves. The problem with infrastructure spending is that the
result does not occur for a year or two -- but it is necessary. I
would have also invested heavily in nuclear energy and the
electrical grid. I would not have cut other taxes.
But you know, I'm one of those squishy, fake Republicans.
History will show that Obama will not own this recession. A
longer term view will show that the excesses leading up to this
recessions occurred primarily during the Bush administration. I
think there is a lot of wishful thinking at TAS, but reason will
win against belief.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 12:26PM
Basil, thanks for the laugh. Just ponder this question... Do you
think it is important to pay your debts? Reagan was creating
debt, and he knew it. He could have vetoed more spending bills or
not reduced taxes as much. However, he knew the debt needed to be
repaid in the future and it wouldn't affect him in his lifetime.
I was against the debt created then -- and I'm against the debt
created now. Remember that Republicans were totally in power at
the beginning of this millennium. There is a pox on the houses of
all politicians in this regard.
L. Ross -- in regard to Reagan's problem versus Obama's, I do
strongly believe that the economy is in much worse condition now
than it was in 1980. It has to do with the type of debt and who
owned it. Individuals had much reserve capacity in the 80's, and
virtually none right now. Therefore, people could survive a
downturn then. Now, it is much more difficult. Besides, then
manufacturing played a much more important role in GDP creation.
Today, GDP creation is dependent primarily on consumption.
You really cannot say, in retrospect, that the economy was going
strong until the end of the Bush term. In fact, we know that the
housing bubble was building strongly during the entire Bush
administration. It's like going 60 miles per hour and coming to a
cliff. If you had read the map, you would have slowed down so you
could stop in time. However, the inertia of the housing bubble
and credit crisis was so large, that nothing could have stopped
it.
Regarding the Obama stimulus -- as I've said many times, I don't
believe that government spending, in general, is efficient in
creating GDP, I also don't believe that tax cuts work as the
macro-economic numbers show. I would have made a cut in payroll
taxes and increased infrastructure spending as you have
indicated. Payroll tax cuts immediately put money into the
economy as they go primarily to people who have no savings
reserves. The problem with infrastructure spending is that the
result does not occur for a year or two -- but it is necessary. I
would have also invested heavily in nuclear energy and the
electrical grid. I would not have cut other taxes.
But you know, I'm one of those squishy, fake Republicans.
History will show that Obama will not own this recession. A
longer term view will show that the excesses leading up to this
recessions occurred primarily during the Bush administration. I
think there is a lot of wishful thinking at TAS, but reason will
win against belief.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 1:15PM
Basil, thanks for the laugh. Just ponder this question... Do you
think it is important to pay your debts? Reagan was creating
debt, and he knew it. He could have vetoed more spending bills or
not reduced taxes as much. However, he knew the debt needed to be
repaid in the future and it wouldn't affect him in his lifetime.
I was against the debt created then -- and I'm against the debt
created now. Remember that Republicans were totally in power at
the beginning of this millennium. There is a pox on the houses of
all politicians in this regard.
L. Ross -- in regard to Reagan's problem versus Obama's, I do
strongly believe that the economy is in much worse condition now
than it was in 1980. It has to do with the type of debt and who
owned it. Individuals had much reserve capacity in the 80's, and
virtually none right now. Therefore, people could survive a
downturn then. Now, it is much more difficult. Besides, then
manufacturing played a much more important role in GDP creation.
Today, GDP creation is dependent primarily on consumption.
You really cannot say, in retrospect, that the economy was going
strong until the end of the Bush term. In fact, we know that the
housing bubble was building strongly during the entire Bush
administration. It's like going 60 miles per hour and coming to a
cliff. If you had read the map, you would have slowed down so you
could stop in time. However, the inertia of the housing bubble
and credit crisis was so large, that nothing could have stopped
it.
Regarding the Obama stimulus -- as I've said many times, I don't
believe that government spending, in general, is efficient in
creating GDP, I also don't believe that tax cuts work as the
macro-economic numbers show. I would have made a cut in payroll
taxes and increased infrastructure spending as you have
indicated. Payroll tax cuts immediately put money into the
economy as they go primarily to people who have no savings
reserves. The problem with infrastructure spending is that the
result does not occur for a year or two -- but it is necessary. I
would have also invested heavily in nuclear energy and the
electrical grid. I would not have cut other taxes.
But you know, I'm one of those squishy, fake Republicans.
History will show that Obama will not own this recession. A
longer term view will show that the excesses leading up to this
recessions occurred primarily during the Bush administration. I
think there is a lot of wishful thinking at TAS, but reason will
win against belief.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 1:20PM
Sorry, guys, for the multiple posts. I have the final version of
Firefox 3.5 with the "feature" of resending posted data when you
hit "refresh".
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 1:22PM
Thanks, Bob, for posting your baloney in triplicate today. Makes
you look so eager. What a dope.
Bob, I've criticized the increased debt levels under Reagan and
Bush 43 so many times that it would be boring to reproduce here.
Ditto Bush 43's fiscal policies. But Obama is president now. Get
back to me when his increases in the debt are followed by
something like the end of stagflation or victory in the Cold War.
Part of the problem with Obama's policies is that they are a
continuation of Bush's policies, only with spending and borrowing
at even more irresponsible levels. Not to worry, sayeth the
Obamacons -- at least, unlike Bush, he'll eventually raise taxes.
But when taxes go up enough to even begin to try to pay for all
this, that's when the worries will really begin.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 2:03PM
RINO Bob is an Obama groupie.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 2:26PM
James, we are not technically in a period of stagflation -- we
have a stagnant economy but we haven't seen much inflation yet.
At this juncture, looking at the world economic picture, I doubt
whether we will see any serious inflation for years to come.
Remember that inflation is a relative measure. As for ending
wars, I am quite happy the Iraq nation building effort is ending
and that our foreign policy is no longer expansionist (an
historically conservative position).
As for taxes, I don't expect federal taxes for the vast majority
of people will go up because income redistribution efforts would
not support that activity. However, I do expect tax rates to rise
significantly at the state level as they are required to have
balanced budgets. Thus, Obama will not be blamed for that.
And James, the economy will cycle through this downturn -- the
timing is just right for Obama just as it was with Reagan. My
problem is not specifically with Democrats or Republicans, it is
with the structure of politics that requires a politician spend
to get votes and give tax breaks to donors instead of doing the
right thing. Our budget problems will not be solved unless we
change this structure. In terms of fiscal responsibility, I don't
see much difference between the actions (not rhetoric) of
Democrats or Republicans.
Basil Plumley| 7.7.09 @ 2:57PM
Thanks Bob ...... I can always count on you to duck the issue.
How did Reagan raise debts when the Constitution only allows the
House to spend the money?
Veto spending? Golly gee, Bob how about if he just shut down the
government? Yeah that really worked out well for Newt and the
gang in the 1990's. I pay my debts but Congressional spending has
become so politicized over the years do you honestly think they
want to pay their debts?
As Antle alludes in his post, the end of the Cold War is a nice
justification for "Reagan's debt". Spreading the wealth around
with monopoly money is not my idea of justifying "Obama's
spending".
@Angel
You are wrong about Bob, he is not a groupie ............. he is
lying prostrate at the altar of Obama.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 3:17PM
Gee, Basil, why do Presidents have vetoes if they are not useful?
Your brilliance recedes you. The President is the only real
"check" on Congress. Obviously, Reagan didn't think the debt was
important enough to stop. And yes, if I didn't believe I could
get spending reduced, I'd raise taxes. However, you'd have to pry
that veto pen out of my cold, clenched hands before I would do
that.
Basil, stop making excuses and live on principle.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 3:18PM
"LYING" is the operative word in your comment, Basil. Big bad
liar Bob. lol
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 3:21PM
Good G*d, you're a tedious little man, Bob. Little recommends
you.
west_rhino| 7.7.09 @ 3:25PM
Ne'er mind the Obama recession, as the incompetence continues the
Obama Deperession becomes the albatross about his handler's necks
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 3:36PM
Angel, thank you, again, for staying on topic... The tolerance
you show from your religion is clearly evident in your posts. I'm
sure your pastor would be proud of you....
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 3:44PM
Typical liberal--no sense of humor; it always gives you away,
Bob.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 3:56PM
Angel, I guess YOU are the liberal here as you didn't see the
tongue in cheek humor of my remark. You actually took it
seriously. This type of humor is called "satire" -- look it
up....
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 4:14PM
Bob, I'm NEVER serious when I engage you! A tad sadistic,
perhaps--but never serious. I can't believe that hasn't sunk in
yet.
Basil Plumley| 7.7.09 @ 5:27PM
Dear Bob,
It has been said you are a man of intelligence. (I know, the only
person who says so, is you, but moving right along....)
Could you explain to the class, what was the greater principle,
defeating the Soviet Union or less debt?
If President Bob (trust me IF is the word) were in Reagan's
shoes, would he accept a budget that contained most or all of the
spending necessary to attain his goal of defeating the Soviets
and suffer extra spending by the Democrats or would he declare
war on the Democrat's spending and lose any hope for future
spending for your projects against the Soviets?
C'mon hotshot, this should be real easy for you to answer.
Raising taxes? Are you sure you're not the one who got the D in
Macro-economics? That a real winner politically. Like I said Bob
...... IF.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 5:53PM
Bob's a glutton for punishment: Why else would he show up every
day to receive a verbal caning from his fellow AmSpec classmates?
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 6:03PM
Basil, you settle for too little -- he could have done both. But
then again, a linear thinker like you wouldn't have thought of
that. I'm under the belief that if you are going to have a war
worth fighting, it is worth paying for.
Regarding tax increases, we've been through that argument before.
Tax cuts are not very stimulative and I challenge anyone to
provide a long term inflation adjusted chart (not two point
references) to prove it. And by the way, I received straight
"A's" in econ. I doubt whether you've even studied the subject
except as you pull it out of......
Angel, the day I receive intelligent verbal responses from you or
Basil will be when that place down under freezes over. Have you
ever tried to post an intelligent response, or are you limited to
empty responses about me?
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 6:13PM
Bob, if I believed that you argued in good faith I would accord
you respect; but ever since you tried to demonize and
delegitimize Palin you've been on my list.
Women have long memories, Bob, and this woman is no exception.
Sorry.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 6:24PM
Bob, I know you're smart, and I know that you know Basil is
smart; so why do you feel it's necessary to throw your Econ
grades at him? It's so embarrassing!
You never fail to make me laugh--but it's kind of a smirky laugh.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 8:01PM
Angel -- read carefully -- it was Basil who brought up grades in
econ. And my analysis of Palin is real and has nothing to do with
her being a woman. I raised my three daughters to believe they
could do anything a man could do. I gave them Chemistry sets, let
them play sports, had them play with trains and also take dancing
and music. They all have successful careers and children. And
they all feel the same way about Palin. You need to stop
projecting your feelings onto others. And by the way, men have
long memories, too. Especially we older ones. (Our short term
memories are shot, however).
For the most part, Angel, I do argue in good faith. I just have
significantly different views regarding the nature of the
Republican party and the importance of objectivity in the use of
analysis. I wonder why you get so much joy from making the types
of posts you do and further joy by joining a group that mobs
people who disagree with you. But that is something you and your
shrink should discuss.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 8:32PM
You are a liar.
Listen to me carefully, Bob: I distinctly remember your many
abusive posts about Palin and I knew immediately that the only
reason you went after her so viciously was because she's socially
conservative and you thought you could get away with it.
It was rank bigotry and I could smell it all the way from the
west coast.
So, please don't try to skitter away from your past remarks about
Palin, it's so unbecoming of an accomplished man like yourself.
Shame on you.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 8:44PM
My mental health is excellent, Bob--thank you: My moral acuity is
quite strong, too, because I'm not a coward like you. And I
certainly don't give a royal rat's a$$ about your memory or what
you think of me.
You're a skunk, Sir, and I would never invite a man such as
yourself into my life.
Basil Plumley| 7.7.09 @ 9:55PM
Angel, you are awesome. I think Bob courted his wife by dragging
her to his cave by her hair. Once successful, he thinks all women
should be as submissive. That may explain the Palin thing he has.
Bob, if you know anything about economics, you should know the
axiom of "Time is Money". You would waste time tilting at
windmills while millions suffer under the jackboot of Communism.
That says more about your principles and obtuseness than
anything.
There are times in History where events happen that change
mankind for the better. Those events will never happen under your
watch because you don't have the common decency and respect to
lift your fellow man out of the shackles of bondage to the
State.
They happened under Reagan because he was a better man than you.
You know Bob, if your girls feel the same way about Palin as you,
you must be one hell of a dad.
One question; do they goosestep to the dinner table?
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 10:21PM
I really don't think Bob sees himself as a bully--but he is. I
have been bullied by men in my life, and it's very
upsetting--actually frightening from a woman's perspective. I had
to grow up before I could speak up for myself; and Bob's remarks
about Palin last fall really hurt me. I knew it wasn't fair.
Bob, it's not in my nature to be mean to people because I love
most everybody--but I've had to stand up for Sarah because I
couldn't have looked at myself in the mirror otherwise.
Basil Plumley| 7.7.09 @ 10:52PM
Angel
I will give you a couple of pieces of advice.
Find a mate who thinks like you and believes in the same things
you do. You will find it is much easier to build a
relationship.
Whatever you do, never compromise your principles; never settle
for second best.
It is simple in theory and difficult in execution but the rewards
are quite satisfying.
Think of it ....... if you take my advice, you will never have to
deal with the Bobs of the world.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 11:31PM
I know that you are right, Basil. You're also wise regarding the
difficulty of the task. Idealism dies hard in some of us and it's
a scary time to be alone, you know? I thank God every day for my
trust in Him.
I wish Bob no ill: I truly hope he and his wife are happy. But,
he's still a bully! lol
Basil Plumley| 7.8.09 @ 7:30AM
I also wish no ill will to Bob. I just think his persona is a
little over the top. He just needs to smell his armpits before he
accuses others of smelling bad.
Anyway, it sounds like your halfway there. My very best to you in
that field of endeavour. Romance is the easy part, its the dang
work to make the relationship work that's difficult.
eispauld| 7.8.09 @ 8:12PM
i disagree that "one of the reasons Katrina caused a lasting
slide in George W. Bush's approval numbers is that it shook the
post-9/11 conviction that he was prepared to meet any national
crisis head-on." the lasting slide in bush's numbers due to
katrina is that certain people in the media were able to use
katrina to paint a picture that george bush didn't like
african-americans. the word "katrina" conjures up feelings of
racism even to this day. that, and not a failure to deal with
post 9/11 problems, is what katrina means to most americans.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 9:47AM
Antle, was Reagan ever blamed for the huge debt he created? He gave money back to people while keeping spending high, i.e., something for nothing. Carter caused the problem, right? In the same manner, this will always be Bush's recession. Everyone except Fox News and Obama haters on this blog will continue to blame Bush. Just as most people give Reagan a break on spending and find excuses, they will do the same with Obama. You cannot say he didn't try to fix the problem. Haven't you ever done a repair job and once you start it, you realize it is far worse than you imagined? This is just human nature.
As for the borrowed money, again look at Reagan. People look at their condition today, not 20 years from now. The economy will turn around before the next Presidential election and Obama will get credit even though we all know this is a cycle. No one will be able to prove that it would have been the same if we had not spent the money.
Tim| 7.7.09 @ 10:35AM
Seems like wishful thinking to me.
Aaron| 7.7.09 @ 10:38AM
"When will people demand results in exchange for the (borrowed) trillions being spent?" When the people rally behind one loud voice of reason.
Basil Plumley| 7.7.09 @ 11:13AM
Tell us Bob,
How did Reagan create the huge debt?
The last time I checked the Constitution, the House is where all spending originates. Hmmm..... last I checked, the Dems ran the House during Reagan's tenure and are currently running the House as we speak.
The difference is politics. The current high spending is Obama's idea. The extra spending under Reagan was a trade off for Reagan's defense proposals.
This "Reagan did it" crap (as well as your putrid Palin posts) is what earns you the wrath of many posters. Do better.
Reagan wasn't perfect but to compare him to Obama or vice versa is a reckless disregard for History, Reality, and Common Sense.
L. Ross| 7.7.09 @ 11:47AM
Bob:
Gotta disagree with you somewhat here. I know that it is easy to blame the prior administration for a very long time, as you reference with Carter and Reagan.
There is a difference here, however. The economy was actually lurching along pretty OK for almost all of Bush's two terms. Only in the last 4 months did it really go to pot. And quite frankly, Bush immediately began implementing BHO's agenda. This is nothing like what happened with Reagan and Carter. The economy had been on the skids for a long time. Even as a young kid, I still remember those stupid buttons WIN (Whip Inflation Now) that someone thought would turn the economy around. I think those came out when Nixon was still president.
Anyway, Reagan took over an economy with runaway stagflation, and changed the policies of the previous administration. Incidentally, by investing in the military, Reagan was able to pump money into R&D in the high tech sector of the economy. You know, the kind of spending that develops spinoffs used around the world. Simultaneously, he was able to win the cold war in about 10 years. I know, I was in the Strategic Air Command when our jets came off alert. All of this has led to a real savings in the military budget. The military today is only about 2/3rds the size it was in the 80's.
In contrast, BHO is spending a bunch of money the states should have been spending for years on road repairs. Encouraging states to neglect their basic infrastructure needs and just wait for Uncle Sugar to nut up the money. That is really going to be a huge stimulus in the long run. That asphalt and concrete technology is really cutting edge stuff.
Finally, as I have said over and over again in posts, the odds that this stimulus money will be spent in an effective, efficient manner are miniscule. It is impossible to use the scientific method (running repeated experiments in a closed system, changing one variable at a time to observe the outcome) in a nation's economy. But without repeated experiments, we really have no idea where, when, or how the money should be spent.
You know, Bob, I have given you credit in the past for being sharp. I think I gave you too much credit.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 12:18PM
Basil, thanks for the laugh. Just ponder this question... Do you think it is important to pay your debts? Reagan was creating debt, and he knew it. He could have vetoed more spending bills or not reduced taxes as much. However, he knew the debt needed to be repaid in the future and it wouldn't affect him in his lifetime. I was against the debt created then -- and I'm against the debt created now. Remember that Republicans were totally in power at the beginning of this millennium. There is a pox on the houses of all politicians in this regard.
L. Ross -- in regard to Reagan's problem versus Obama's, I do strongly believe that the economy is in much worse condition now than it was in 1980. It has to do with the type of debt and who owned it. Individuals had much reserve capacity in the 80's, and virtually none right now. Therefore, people could survive a downturn then. Now, it is much more difficult. Besides, then manufacturing played a much more important role in GDP creation. Today, GDP creation is dependent primarily on consumption.
You really cannot say, in retrospect, that the economy was going strong until the end of the Bush term. In fact, we know that the housing bubble was building strongly during the entire Bush administration. It's like going 60 miles per hour and coming to a cliff. If you had read the map, you would have slowed down so you could stop in time. However, the inertia of the housing bubble and credit crisis was so large, that nothing could have stopped it.
Regarding the Obama stimulus -- as I've said many times, I don't believe that government spending, in general, is efficient in creating GDP, I also don't believe that tax cuts work as the macro-economic numbers show. I would have made a cut in payroll taxes and increased infrastructure spending as you have indicated. Payroll tax cuts immediately put money into the economy as they go primarily to people who have no savings reserves. The problem with infrastructure spending is that the result does not occur for a year or two -- but it is necessary. I would have also invested heavily in nuclear energy and the electrical grid. I would not have cut other taxes.
But you know, I'm one of those squishy, fake Republicans.
History will show that Obama will not own this recession. A longer term view will show that the excesses leading up to this recessions occurred primarily during the Bush administration. I think there is a lot of wishful thinking at TAS, but reason will win against belief.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 12:26PM
Basil, thanks for the laugh. Just ponder this question... Do you think it is important to pay your debts? Reagan was creating debt, and he knew it. He could have vetoed more spending bills or not reduced taxes as much. However, he knew the debt needed to be repaid in the future and it wouldn't affect him in his lifetime. I was against the debt created then -- and I'm against the debt created now. Remember that Republicans were totally in power at the beginning of this millennium. There is a pox on the houses of all politicians in this regard.
L. Ross -- in regard to Reagan's problem versus Obama's, I do strongly believe that the economy is in much worse condition now than it was in 1980. It has to do with the type of debt and who owned it. Individuals had much reserve capacity in the 80's, and virtually none right now. Therefore, people could survive a downturn then. Now, it is much more difficult. Besides, then manufacturing played a much more important role in GDP creation. Today, GDP creation is dependent primarily on consumption.
You really cannot say, in retrospect, that the economy was going strong until the end of the Bush term. In fact, we know that the housing bubble was building strongly during the entire Bush administration. It's like going 60 miles per hour and coming to a cliff. If you had read the map, you would have slowed down so you could stop in time. However, the inertia of the housing bubble and credit crisis was so large, that nothing could have stopped it.
Regarding the Obama stimulus -- as I've said many times, I don't believe that government spending, in general, is efficient in creating GDP, I also don't believe that tax cuts work as the macro-economic numbers show. I would have made a cut in payroll taxes and increased infrastructure spending as you have indicated. Payroll tax cuts immediately put money into the economy as they go primarily to people who have no savings reserves. The problem with infrastructure spending is that the result does not occur for a year or two -- but it is necessary. I would have also invested heavily in nuclear energy and the electrical grid. I would not have cut other taxes.
But you know, I'm one of those squishy, fake Republicans.
History will show that Obama will not own this recession. A longer term view will show that the excesses leading up to this recessions occurred primarily during the Bush administration. I think there is a lot of wishful thinking at TAS, but reason will win against belief.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 1:15PM
Basil, thanks for the laugh. Just ponder this question... Do you think it is important to pay your debts? Reagan was creating debt, and he knew it. He could have vetoed more spending bills or not reduced taxes as much. However, he knew the debt needed to be repaid in the future and it wouldn't affect him in his lifetime. I was against the debt created then -- and I'm against the debt created now. Remember that Republicans were totally in power at the beginning of this millennium. There is a pox on the houses of all politicians in this regard.
L. Ross -- in regard to Reagan's problem versus Obama's, I do strongly believe that the economy is in much worse condition now than it was in 1980. It has to do with the type of debt and who owned it. Individuals had much reserve capacity in the 80's, and virtually none right now. Therefore, people could survive a downturn then. Now, it is much more difficult. Besides, then manufacturing played a much more important role in GDP creation. Today, GDP creation is dependent primarily on consumption.
You really cannot say, in retrospect, that the economy was going strong until the end of the Bush term. In fact, we know that the housing bubble was building strongly during the entire Bush administration. It's like going 60 miles per hour and coming to a cliff. If you had read the map, you would have slowed down so you could stop in time. However, the inertia of the housing bubble and credit crisis was so large, that nothing could have stopped it.
Regarding the Obama stimulus -- as I've said many times, I don't believe that government spending, in general, is efficient in creating GDP, I also don't believe that tax cuts work as the macro-economic numbers show. I would have made a cut in payroll taxes and increased infrastructure spending as you have indicated. Payroll tax cuts immediately put money into the economy as they go primarily to people who have no savings reserves. The problem with infrastructure spending is that the result does not occur for a year or two -- but it is necessary. I would have also invested heavily in nuclear energy and the electrical grid. I would not have cut other taxes.
But you know, I'm one of those squishy, fake Republicans.
History will show that Obama will not own this recession. A longer term view will show that the excesses leading up to this recessions occurred primarily during the Bush administration. I think there is a lot of wishful thinking at TAS, but reason will win against belief.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 1:20PM
Sorry, guys, for the multiple posts. I have the final version of Firefox 3.5 with the "feature" of resending posted data when you hit "refresh".
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 1:22PM
Thanks, Bob, for posting your baloney in triplicate today. Makes you look so eager. What a dope.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 1:24PM
Nice try, but you're still a dope, Bob.
W. James Antle III| 7.7.09 @ 1:32PM
Bob, I've criticized the increased debt levels under Reagan and Bush 43 so many times that it would be boring to reproduce here. Ditto Bush 43's fiscal policies. But Obama is president now. Get back to me when his increases in the debt are followed by something like the end of stagflation or victory in the Cold War.
Part of the problem with Obama's policies is that they are a continuation of Bush's policies, only with spending and borrowing at even more irresponsible levels. Not to worry, sayeth the Obamacons -- at least, unlike Bush, he'll eventually raise taxes. But when taxes go up enough to even begin to try to pay for all this, that's when the worries will really begin.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 2:03PM
RINO Bob is an Obama groupie.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 2:26PM
James, we are not technically in a period of stagflation -- we have a stagnant economy but we haven't seen much inflation yet. At this juncture, looking at the world economic picture, I doubt whether we will see any serious inflation for years to come. Remember that inflation is a relative measure. As for ending wars, I am quite happy the Iraq nation building effort is ending and that our foreign policy is no longer expansionist (an historically conservative position).
As for taxes, I don't expect federal taxes for the vast majority of people will go up because income redistribution efforts would not support that activity. However, I do expect tax rates to rise significantly at the state level as they are required to have balanced budgets. Thus, Obama will not be blamed for that.
And James, the economy will cycle through this downturn -- the timing is just right for Obama just as it was with Reagan. My problem is not specifically with Democrats or Republicans, it is with the structure of politics that requires a politician spend to get votes and give tax breaks to donors instead of doing the right thing. Our budget problems will not be solved unless we change this structure. In terms of fiscal responsibility, I don't see much difference between the actions (not rhetoric) of Democrats or Republicans.
Basil Plumley| 7.7.09 @ 2:57PM
Thanks Bob ...... I can always count on you to duck the issue. How did Reagan raise debts when the Constitution only allows the House to spend the money?
Veto spending? Golly gee, Bob how about if he just shut down the government? Yeah that really worked out well for Newt and the gang in the 1990's. I pay my debts but Congressional spending has become so politicized over the years do you honestly think they want to pay their debts?
As Antle alludes in his post, the end of the Cold War is a nice justification for "Reagan's debt". Spreading the wealth around with monopoly money is not my idea of justifying "Obama's spending".
@Angel
You are wrong about Bob, he is not a groupie ............. he is lying prostrate at the altar of Obama.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 3:17PM
Gee, Basil, why do Presidents have vetoes if they are not useful? Your brilliance recedes you. The President is the only real "check" on Congress. Obviously, Reagan didn't think the debt was important enough to stop. And yes, if I didn't believe I could get spending reduced, I'd raise taxes. However, you'd have to pry that veto pen out of my cold, clenched hands before I would do that.
Basil, stop making excuses and live on principle.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 3:18PM
"LYING" is the operative word in your comment, Basil. Big bad liar Bob. lol
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 3:21PM
Good G*d, you're a tedious little man, Bob. Little recommends you.
west_rhino| 7.7.09 @ 3:25PM
Ne'er mind the Obama recession, as the incompetence continues the Obama Deperession becomes the albatross about his handler's necks
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 3:36PM
Angel, thank you, again, for staying on topic... The tolerance you show from your religion is clearly evident in your posts. I'm sure your pastor would be proud of you....
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 3:44PM
Typical liberal--no sense of humor; it always gives you away, Bob.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 3:56PM
Angel, I guess YOU are the liberal here as you didn't see the tongue in cheek humor of my remark. You actually took it seriously. This type of humor is called "satire" -- look it up....
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 4:14PM
Bob, I'm NEVER serious when I engage you! A tad sadistic, perhaps--but never serious. I can't believe that hasn't sunk in yet.
Basil Plumley| 7.7.09 @ 5:27PM
Dear Bob,
It has been said you are a man of intelligence. (I know, the only person who says so, is you, but moving right along....)
Could you explain to the class, what was the greater principle, defeating the Soviet Union or less debt?
If President Bob (trust me IF is the word) were in Reagan's shoes, would he accept a budget that contained most or all of the spending necessary to attain his goal of defeating the Soviets and suffer extra spending by the Democrats or would he declare war on the Democrat's spending and lose any hope for future spending for your projects against the Soviets?
C'mon hotshot, this should be real easy for you to answer.
Raising taxes? Are you sure you're not the one who got the D in Macro-economics? That a real winner politically. Like I said Bob ...... IF.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 5:53PM
Bob's a glutton for punishment: Why else would he show up every day to receive a verbal caning from his fellow AmSpec classmates?
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 6:03PM
Basil, you settle for too little -- he could have done both. But then again, a linear thinker like you wouldn't have thought of that. I'm under the belief that if you are going to have a war worth fighting, it is worth paying for.
Regarding tax increases, we've been through that argument before. Tax cuts are not very stimulative and I challenge anyone to provide a long term inflation adjusted chart (not two point references) to prove it. And by the way, I received straight "A's" in econ. I doubt whether you've even studied the subject except as you pull it out of......
Angel, the day I receive intelligent verbal responses from you or Basil will be when that place down under freezes over. Have you ever tried to post an intelligent response, or are you limited to empty responses about me?
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 6:13PM
Bob, if I believed that you argued in good faith I would accord you respect; but ever since you tried to demonize and delegitimize Palin you've been on my list.
Women have long memories, Bob, and this woman is no exception. Sorry.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 6:24PM
Bob, I know you're smart, and I know that you know Basil is smart; so why do you feel it's necessary to throw your Econ grades at him? It's so embarrassing!
You never fail to make me laugh--but it's kind of a smirky laugh.
Bob| 7.7.09 @ 8:01PM
Angel -- read carefully -- it was Basil who brought up grades in econ. And my analysis of Palin is real and has nothing to do with her being a woman. I raised my three daughters to believe they could do anything a man could do. I gave them Chemistry sets, let them play sports, had them play with trains and also take dancing and music. They all have successful careers and children. And they all feel the same way about Palin. You need to stop projecting your feelings onto others. And by the way, men have long memories, too. Especially we older ones. (Our short term memories are shot, however).
For the most part, Angel, I do argue in good faith. I just have significantly different views regarding the nature of the Republican party and the importance of objectivity in the use of analysis. I wonder why you get so much joy from making the types of posts you do and further joy by joining a group that mobs people who disagree with you. But that is something you and your shrink should discuss.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 8:32PM
You are a liar.
Listen to me carefully, Bob: I distinctly remember your many abusive posts about Palin and I knew immediately that the only reason you went after her so viciously was because she's socially conservative and you thought you could get away with it.
It was rank bigotry and I could smell it all the way from the west coast.
So, please don't try to skitter away from your past remarks about Palin, it's so unbecoming of an accomplished man like yourself. Shame on you.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 8:44PM
My mental health is excellent, Bob--thank you: My moral acuity is quite strong, too, because I'm not a coward like you. And I certainly don't give a royal rat's a$$ about your memory or what you think of me.
You're a skunk, Sir, and I would never invite a man such as yourself into my life.
Basil Plumley| 7.7.09 @ 9:55PM
Angel, you are awesome. I think Bob courted his wife by dragging her to his cave by her hair. Once successful, he thinks all women should be as submissive. That may explain the Palin thing he has.
Bob, if you know anything about economics, you should know the axiom of "Time is Money". You would waste time tilting at windmills while millions suffer under the jackboot of Communism. That says more about your principles and obtuseness than anything.
There are times in History where events happen that change mankind for the better. Those events will never happen under your watch because you don't have the common decency and respect to lift your fellow man out of the shackles of bondage to the State.
They happened under Reagan because he was a better man than you.
You know Bob, if your girls feel the same way about Palin as you, you must be one hell of a dad.
One question; do they goosestep to the dinner table?
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 10:21PM
I really don't think Bob sees himself as a bully--but he is. I have been bullied by men in my life, and it's very upsetting--actually frightening from a woman's perspective. I had to grow up before I could speak up for myself; and Bob's remarks about Palin last fall really hurt me. I knew it wasn't fair.
Bob, it's not in my nature to be mean to people because I love most everybody--but I've had to stand up for Sarah because I couldn't have looked at myself in the mirror otherwise.
Basil Plumley| 7.7.09 @ 10:52PM
Angel
I will give you a couple of pieces of advice.
Find a mate who thinks like you and believes in the same things you do. You will find it is much easier to build a relationship.
Whatever you do, never compromise your principles; never settle for second best.
It is simple in theory and difficult in execution but the rewards are quite satisfying.
Think of it ....... if you take my advice, you will never have to deal with the Bobs of the world.
Angel| 7.7.09 @ 11:31PM
I know that you are right, Basil. You're also wise regarding the difficulty of the task. Idealism dies hard in some of us and it's a scary time to be alone, you know? I thank God every day for my trust in Him.
I wish Bob no ill: I truly hope he and his wife are happy. But, he's still a bully! lol
Basil Plumley| 7.8.09 @ 7:30AM
I also wish no ill will to Bob. I just think his persona is a little over the top. He just needs to smell his armpits before he accuses others of smelling bad.
Anyway, it sounds like your halfway there. My very best to you in that field of endeavour. Romance is the easy part, its the dang work to make the relationship work that's difficult.
eispauld| 7.8.09 @ 8:12PM
i disagree that "one of the reasons Katrina caused a lasting slide in George W. Bush's approval numbers is that it shook the post-9/11 conviction that he was prepared to meet any national crisis head-on." the lasting slide in bush's numbers due to katrina is that certain people in the media were able to use katrina to paint a picture that george bush didn't like african-americans. the word "katrina" conjures up feelings of racism even to this day. that, and not a failure to deal with post 9/11 problems, is what katrina means to most americans.
pigment Red| 4.6.10 @ 8:57PM
Never frown, Ink Pigments
even when you are sad,Organic Pigments because you never know who is falling in love with your smile.