Ronald
Brownstein offers a regional and political breakdown of the cap
'n trade vote in the National Journal:
In their razor-thin victory on climate change legislation
Friday, House Democrats prevailed by holding just enough votes
from members in coal states to offset substantial defections
from colleagues in Republican-leaning districts, a National
Journal analysis of the vote shows.
The historic 219-212 vote for the climate change legislation,
which seeks to impose the nation's first mandatory reductions
in emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases linked to global
warming, divided Democrats much more sharply than the vote on
President Obama's stimulus plan. With 44
Democrats voting against the climate change legislation and 211
voting yes, the measure cleared the House only with support
from eight Republicans who broke from their party leadership to
support it.
The interactive table below allows readers to analyze the vote
from a variety of angles, including the members' margin of
victory, whether Obama or John McCain carried
their district, and whether their state is one of the 30 that
rely on coal to generate at least 40 percent of its electrical
power, according to federal Energy Information Administration
figures. (Those states are designated in the chart as coal
states.)
Viewing the results through those prisms reveals several clear
patterns. In all, the findings suggest that calculations about
the underlying political and ideological inclinations of the
districts may have shaped the Democratic vote somewhat more
powerfully than assessments of the districts' vulnerability to
energy price increases if the legislation passed.
In both parties, nothing appeared to drive the outcome more
than the presidential result in last November's election.
Of the 49 House Democrats who represent districts that McCain
carried last year, fully 29 voted against the measure. By
contrast, just 15 of the 207 Democrats from districts that
Obama carried last year voted against the bill. (Florida Rep.
Alcee Hastings, whose district backed Obama,
did not vote, meaning "Obama Democrats" ended up splitting
191-15.) Put another way, while 59 percent of the Democrats
from districts that McCain carried voted no, just 7 percent of
Democrats in Obama-majority districts opposed the White House
on the vote.
It is particularly important to continue targeting the 20
Democrats who voted yes while hailing from districts carried by
John McCain. They still could be won over to oppose any
compromise coming out of a conference committee with the Senate,
if similar legislation passes that both.
