The CBO has just released its initial cost
estimates on the Democratic health care proposal coming out of
the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee
chaired by Ted Kennedy, and found that it would increase deficits
by at least $1 trillion. I say "at least," because there are
major provisions of the bill that have not been finalized and
which were not included in the cost, such as a massive expansion
of Medicaid eligibility:
These new figures do not represent a formal or
complete cost estimate for the draft legislation, for several
reasons. The estimates provided do not address the entire
bill—only the major provisions related to health insurance
coverage. Some details have not been estimated yet, and the
draft legislation has not been fully reviewed. Also, because
expanded eligibility for the Medicaid program may be added at a
later date, those figures are not likely to represent the
impact that more comprehensive proposals—which might include a
significant expansion of Medicaid or other options for
subsidizing coverage for those with income below 150 percent of
the federal poverty level—would have both on the federal budget
and on the extent of insurance coverage.
In addition, the CBO report undercuts President Obama's
insistence that those who like the coverage they have can keep
it, as it projects millions of Americans would lose their current
coverage:
When fully implemented, about 39 million individuals would
obtain coverage through the new insurance exchanges. At the
same time, the number of people who had coverage through an
employer would decline by about 15 million (or roughly 10
percent), and coverage from other sources would fall by about 8
million, so the net decrease in the number of people uninsured
would be about 16 million or 17 million.