On February 2nd, Steve Lonegan, former mayor of Bogota, and
contender for the GOP nomination for the New Jersey governor's
race, was looking at numbers from Quinnipiac like this:
Christie: 44%
Lonegan: 17%
At that point, Chris Christie was asserting he had no ethics
problems at all, and that if something smelled unethical, he
wouldn't do it. That, I
said, was some Orwellian verve.
So little surprise comes that when we're looking at the new
numbers, Christie's campaign can still claim: "We're winning."
Christie: 46%
Lonegan: 37%
Chris Christie's bumbling campaign has gone from a 22 point lead
(March 9th) down to a 9 point lead (April 21st).
The pollster
writes:
“Christopher Christie’s lead over Steve Lonegan in the
Republican primary shrinks as we shift from registered voters
to likely voters. These Republican loyalists are less impressed
by a political newcomer than a party veteran,” Richards said.
To which Christie's campaign
responds:
Chris Christie campaign manager Bill Stepien said that polls
released this morning confirm that Christie remains the
frontrunner not just in the gubernatorial primary, but for the
general election.
"Two new polls continue to show encouraging news for Chris
Christie. The bottom line is that I'd rather be Chris than any
other candidate right now,” he said. “Chris has a substantial
lead in both the primary and general election polls, a
significant fundraising advantage in the primary and grassroots
support in all corners of the state, as evidenced by him
winning every single county convention.”
Okay. Christie does deserve congratulations for winning
every single county convention. Except that happened in
February, back when he was said to be the only viable
candidate. Things have changed. The poll showing his lead cut in
half is today. While I'm sure Bill Stepien is sincere in thinking
that he'd "rather be Chris than any other candidate right now,"
it does make me worry about Bill Stepien's stock portfolio/NCAA
brackets/horserace betting record. You're supposed to look at
change over time.
If we could revisit those poll numbers, the term "buzz saw" comes
to mind.
