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The Spectacle Blog

"Our Lead Is Vanishing At A Rate Of AWESOME"

By J.P. Freire on 4.22.09 @ 4:53PM

On February 2nd, Steve Lonegan, former mayor of Bogota, and contender for the GOP nomination for the New Jersey governor's race, was looking at numbers from Quinnipiac like this:

Christie: 44%
Lonegan: 17%

At that point, Chris Christie was asserting he had no ethics problems at all, and that if something smelled unethical, he wouldn't do it. That, I said, was some Orwellian verve.

So little surprise comes that when we're looking at the new numbers, Christie's campaign can still claim: "We're winning."

Christie: 46%
Lonegan: 37%

Chris Christie's bumbling campaign has gone from a 22 point lead (March 9th) down to a 9 point lead (April 21st).

The pollster writes:

“Christopher Christie’s lead over Steve Lonegan in the Republican primary shrinks as we shift from registered voters to likely voters. These Republican loyalists are less impressed by a political newcomer than a party veteran,” Richards said.

To which Christie's campaign responds:

Chris Christie campaign manager Bill Stepien said that polls released this morning confirm that Christie remains the frontrunner not just in the gubernatorial primary, but for the general election.

"Two new polls continue to show encouraging news for Chris Christie. The bottom line is that I'd rather be Chris than any other candidate right now,” he said. “Chris has a substantial lead in both the primary and general election polls, a significant fundraising advantage in the primary and grassroots support in all corners of the state, as evidenced by him winning every single county convention.”

Okay. Christie does deserve congratulations for winning every single county convention. Except that happened in February, back when he was said to be the only viable candidate. Things have changed. The poll showing his lead cut in half is today. While I'm sure Bill Stepien is sincere in thinking that he'd "rather be Chris than any other candidate right now," it does make me worry about Bill Stepien's stock portfolio/NCAA brackets/horserace betting record. You're supposed to look at change over time.

If we could revisit those poll numbers, the term "buzz saw" comes to mind.

View all comments (7) | Leave a comment

Virgil Huston| 4.22.09 @ 6:25PM

Regarding the wins in all the county conventions, you can't give Christie credit for that. These results were all fixed before the conventions by the corrupt status quo Republican big government bosses. That would be worth a great investigative report for American Spectator to do.

andy bradshaw| 4.23.09 @ 12:31AM

Christie could have earned the respect of all Republicans and won most of the conventions by playing fair and not resorting to what one State Senator has called "bullying, intimidation, and blackmail". Instead, the over anxious boys on his campaign went Soprano and took away their candidate's moral authority. Now he'll have a tough time uniting the party should he win, which is looking less and less likely.

Cary Dickey| 4.23.09 @ 8:21AM

After reading about Christie and Lonegan, I believe that Steve Lonegan is the only Republican candidate for Governor, who is capable of beating Corzine. If the New Jersey GOP has a history of choosing losers, perhaps they should pick a winner. Will the New Jersey GOP ever learn from their mistakes? Come on New Jersey GOP, we need to win a Governors race for a change! Don't pick a loser! Pick a winner!

MikeGSP| 4.23.09 @ 10:23AM

Virgil is right. The party establishment in NJ is a joke. Conservatives need to retake it.

Moreover, this election has national implications. With the Republican Party desperately needing to return to conservative ideals, it would be a huge shot across the bow to see a conservative win in a deeply blue state like NJ.

Lorraine G.| 4.23.09 @ 10:43AM

Steve Lonegan's early radio ads caught my husband and my attention. We went from Independent status to registering as a Republican, in order, that we can vote for Mr. Lonegan in this years primary election. NJ needs a strong leader who will work for ALL citizens and not party bosses and abusive unions.

Al Dolce| 4.23.09 @ 10:55AM

All one has to do is look at what the so called Republican leadership did to us, forcing Dick Zimmer down our throats rather than risk losing with the Conservative. Now all Lautenberg has to do if we win is announce his retirement. Then Corzine can select another crook from Hudson Co. to be Senator before he leaves.