The NY Times report
that President Obama is planning to address immigration reform
this year is pretty surprising. And by surprising I don't mean
that it's unexpected that Obama would support legalizing illegal
immigrants, but that he would risk a backlash on such a
passionate issue that could seriously hinder is ability to
achieve other aspects of his agenda. With unemployment at 8.5
percent, Republicans more likely to oppose a path to legalization
now that a Democrat is president, and with Democrats having
gained seats in a lot of conservative districts by talking tough
on immigration, the political environment does not seem conducive
to legalizing millions of illegal immigrants. So, I see a few
possibilities:
-- Perhaps President Obama sincerely wants to get this done.
--Perhaps he doesn't think it's possible he could overreach and
trigger a backlash.
-- Perhaps he doesn't really plan on pushing this hard, but wants
to make some noise on the issue to reassure restive Hispanic
groups that immigration reform is still a priority for him.
-- Perhaps he's really clever and realizes that as long as the
prospect of amnesty is in the air, conservatives will be focused
24/7 on that issue, and this will distract the right from
fighting him on other issues more central to his agenda like
health care, energy, and education.
