Chris Dodd's approval rating has sunk to 33 percent in
Connecticut in a new Quinnipiac poll,
which the director of the survey calls "unheard of for a 30-year
incumbent, especially a Democrat in a blue state." If an election
were held today, Dodd would lose to Rob Simmons 50 percent to 34
percent, and he's also behind other potential Republican comers:
Matched against two other possible Republican challengers, Sen.
Dodd trails both State Sen. Sam Caligiuri 41 - 37 percent and
former ambassador Tom Foley 43 - 35 percent, the independent
Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
In the Dodd-Simmons matchup, Democrats back Dodd by only 58 - 27
percent while Simmons leads 87 - 6 percent among Republicans and
56 - 25 percent among independent voters.
Also, 39 percent of voters say they blame Dodd "a lot" for the
AIG bonus mess, and 35 percent say they blame him "some."
Another factor that the poll doesn't take into account is that
Dodd has received so much scrutiny over his financial industry
contributors, that he may have difficulty raising as much money
as he otherwise would have, potentially neutralizing another
incumbent advantage.
While Republicans are no doubt salivating at their oppourtunity
here, they shouldn't get too far ahead of themselves. If things
continue to look this bad for Dodd, he'll most likely be
challenged in the Democratic primaries, perhaps by Ned Lamont,
who of course won the 2006 Democratic primary against Joe
Lieberman before Lieberman became an independent. And in an
overwhelmingly Democratic state, a Democrat without Dodd's
baggage would have a good chance of holding the seat, especially
because ads will Rebulicanize somebody like Simmons in a general
election. For that reason, I'd be curious to see how Simmons
would poll against other Democrats.
Either way, this is not a seat you would have considered in
serious danger a few months ago. Obama carried Connecticut by 22
points in November, and Dodd was reelected in 2004 with 66
percent of the vote.
UPDATE: a DailyKos diarist
snarls:
Dodd has been in congress for 35 years, and a senator for 5
terms. It's no shame if he starts thinking about
retirement. Democrats have a strong bench: AG
Richard Blumenthal, Ned Lamont, or one of several
congresspeople could step and hold the seat without too much
trouble.
I just hope Dodd does not follow the course of his father, who
cost the Democrats a senate seat in 1970.
