Ross Douthat is
making sense about the centrists. There is an economic theory
behind massive public spending in the face of a recession of this
magnitude, even if I think the evidence overwhelmingly suggests
this theory is wrong. There is an economic theory behind the idea
that this amounts to pouring gasoline on an open fire, the
view I incline toward. But what's the theory behind the idea
we need an $800 billion stimulus package rather than a $900
billion one? It can't be that we don't have the money for $900
billion, because we don't have the money for $800 billion either.
The only reason can be the mindless centrism Douthat identifies:
"Take what the party in power wants, subtract as much money as
you can without infuriating them, vote yes, and declare victory."
Here's the trouble (besides the fact it will lead to the
enactment of this mess): "But thanks to the centrists, we're
getting the cheapskate version of the gargantuan version: They've
done absolutely nothing to widen the terms of debate about what
should go into the bill, and they've shaved off just enough money
to reduce its effectiveness if Paul Krugman is right - but not
nearly enough to make it fiscally prudent if the stimulus
skeptics are right. This means that if the damn thing doesn't
work, we won't even know whom to blame. But it wouldn't be crazy
to start by blaming the centrists." I'd change the "if" in his
penultimate sentence to "when," but it seems about right to me.
The answer is, it won't do anything. The economy will recover
anyway. Paul Krugman and his spokesman, Barack Obama, will loudly
claim vindication. The rest of the media will amplify that claim.
The centrists will be able to run around talking about what
brave, bold, daring mavericks they are, which is their primary
goal under any circumstances.
And we'll all be poorer than we otherwise would have been - and
just that much closer to the big time crash when the government
can't borrow any more.
Sooner_Red| 2.9.09 @ 10:51PM
If 800 billion will "save or create 4 million jobs" (if you say
that over and over, you will achieve inner peace and hope), why
not 800 TRILLION, and create 4 billion jobs? It's just debt, why
not go all out???
Roy| 2.9.09 @ 4:58PM
The answer is, it won't do anything. The economy will recover anyway. Paul Krugman and his spokesman, Barack Obama, will loudly claim vindication. The rest of the media will amplify that claim.
The centrists will be able to run around talking about what brave, bold, daring mavericks they are, which is their primary goal under any circumstances.
And we'll all be poorer than we otherwise would have been - and just that much closer to the big time crash when the government can't borrow any more.
Sooner_Red| 2.9.09 @ 10:51PM
If 800 billion will "save or create 4 million jobs" (if you say that over and over, you will achieve inner peace and hope), why not 800 TRILLION, and create 4 billion jobs? It's just debt, why not go all out???