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Kirsten Gillibrand's apparent about-face on immigration leads to a larger question of how effective these moderate to conservative House Democrats can be. A Democrat can vote like Heath Shuler, Brad Ellsworth or even Gene Taylor if they stick to a congressional district that would otherwise vote Republican. But there isn't much evidence that a Democrat to the right of Bill Clinton can have a much more promising political future than that. Politicians are ambitious people and some of these red-district Blue Dogs will want to seek higher office. How conservative will they be then? Ask Jim Webb.