Looking at the different ballots, and how the voters moved, it was clear that "establishment conservatism" as espoused by Blackwell was going nowhere. This doesn't indicate an ideological failing -- it's not that people didn't agree with Blackwell's views -- but instead, they likely believed more that others in the race would be able to organize. Blackwell had also joined the race late, belying a late enthusiasm.He was hoping to ride the "change" wave, but didn't do so. But "change" was simply anti-establishment. In other words, the conservative hope was still packed inside the overall platform of changing the guard.
Let's look at how the ballots moved.
Ballot 1
DUNCAN:
52
STEELE:46
DAWSON:28
ANUZIS:22
BLACKWELL:20
Already there's support for Steele -- strong support for Steele, as a "change candidate." From this early on, it must have been a surprise to see Steele do so well. It's unclear to what extent members identified Steele as being the candidate for moderates, however -- Duncan himself has been accused of the same. Blackwell started at the bottom, and likely looked to surge later. Dawson, who was likely to receive support from Duncan's people
Ballot 2
DUNCAN: 48 (-4 from first ballot)
STEELE:48 (+2)
DAWSON:29 (+1)
ANUZIS:24 (+2)
BLACKWELL: 19 (-1)
Duncan lost four votes, and Blackwell lost one. Steele, Dawson and Anuzis all gain. Steele and Anuzis are also both considered "change" candidates. Whatever the heck that means.
Ballot 3
STEELE:51 (+3 from second ballot)
DUNCAN: 44 (-4)
DAWSON:34 (+5)
ANUZIS:24 (No Change)
BLACKWELL: 15 (-4)
Steele finally beats down Duncan. Dawson picks up the rest of the votes. Blackwell drops by a quarter of his own votes.
Ballot 4
DAWSON: 62 (+28)
STEELE: 60 (+9)
ANUZIS: 31 (+7)
BLACKWELL: 15 (No Change)
Duncan drops out entirely. The RNC staffers start handing out their resumes to passersby. Blackwell is dead in the water, not having gained any, while Dawson takes on the majority of Duncan voters. Steele picks up more, as does Anuzis. These two essentially become the fulcrum of anti-establishment candidates. Yes. I said fulcrum. Blackwell's voters run to Steele.
Ballot 5
STEELE: 79 (+19)
DAWSON: 69 (+7)
ANUZIS: 20 (-11)
With Steele still in the lead, Anuzis becomes the kingmaker and hands it to Steele.
In other words, what we see is a trend of anti-establishment candidates gelling together versus those who have been on the scene for a while. Dawson, while a good operative, had made blunders that only complacent Republicans would have been happy to countenance.
Two things for conservatives to concern themselves with: First, is that Steele does represent a sense of change. He is a more pro-active spokesman. He is also someone open to ideas -- and likely moreso than previous party apparatchiks who might have ignored conservative yelling.
The second is more important. Blackwell's initial showing does show a problem for the party -- the fact that party members are not readily identifiable as part of the movement. Despite the endorsement of the conservative establishment, Blackwell went nowhere. This does not mean that voting members should be banished from conservatives' Christmas card list. But it does show that the conservative movement, for all their claims of Republican dominance, do not have the influence they thought. Rather than make the claim that these people are intellectually bankrupt, conservatives ought to start figuring out how they can reestablish that influence.
The Democrats say Obamacare opponents are a mob. Are they right?
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Sebastian B. O. Buniontow V| 1.30.09 @ 6:21PM
More nonsense. Frankly, none of the prospective chairs were impressive.
Mark my words, the GOP will live to regret the day they diluted the conservative brand by accommodating squishy NE moderates.
The proposition is not wholly additive. You don't go moderate and expect the stalwart base to remain whole. McCain found that out.
Sebastian B. O. Buniontow V| 1.30.09 @ 6:23PM
Steele, the GOP Hopium and Changium? That's original.
Jeremiah| 1.30.09 @ 8:20PM
Sebastian --
How many conservative southern white men do you figure there are?
You go on and be the party of Karl Rove and Tom Delay and Rush Limbaugh.
In 10 years time the Republicans will be a minor nuisance to Democrats -- a squawking minority.
Michael Roush| 1.30.09 @ 9:37PM
Sebastian,
The "conservative brand" has as much consumer appeal as a used Yugo
J. Peter Freire| 1.31.09 @ 12:25AM
I should jump in before this develops into a feud where we're hearing "YOU'RE AN ANTI-INTELLECTUAL!" And "YOU'RE SOME KIND OF MODERATE!"
I think conservative ideas can win. Actually, they do win. But you pick your specific conservative issues based on your area. If you're Rudy Giuliani in New York City, you go with fiscal restraint and law enforcement, not social issues. It's just how it happens.
We can't remain a southern regional party. Steele, for better or worse, will make sure that doesn't happen. And frankly, if it does work, we can always try again in 2 years.
Basil Plumley| 1.31.09 @ 2:19AM
@J. Peter Freire
I strongly agree. The problem with the GOP is that it's strategy is rooted in Bob Dole's 1996 "270" strategy. The GOP concentrates all its money and time in those areas that will result in 270 electoral votes. As a result, the GOP loses House and Senate members in the areas that are forsaken. Not all of those members are squishes. Gary Franks comes to mind as a conservative who lost in 1996 as a result of this inane strategy.
Is it any wonder the GOP has no members in the House from New England. Heck, 24 years ago, Reagan swept through this same area. I hear the same lame excuse from GOP "operatives" about changing demographics. That is utter nonsense.
As long as the GOP keeps ceding these areas, they will lose ground to the Democrats. It will embolden the Democrats to take the fight to the GOP in "red states". The more the GOP sheds conservative ideas, the more marginal they become.
The GOP has to run a 50 state strategy on conservative principles, not on democrat-lite ideas.
Terry| 1.31.09 @ 8:40AM
Jeremiah and Michael,
Good points all, but might opine that the "conservative brand" of which you speak has been misrepresented during the last 8 years.
What the average person perceives as conservative is not, in fact, conservative. And as long as the party continues to front individuals, who in any other capacity are great benefits to the party, then the GOP will continue to be misrepresented and misunderstood. The only way the GOP will pull itself out of this pit would be to, as we’ve read this week, get back to basics.
Let’s hope Chairman Steele can do that without distorting conservative principles and values.
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Commentary » Blog Archive » Flotsam and Jetsam links to this page.
"Amanda Fitzhugh"| 1.31.09 @ 10:44AM
I agree with Basil Plumley and Terry. I believe in conservative principles and am disappointed in my elected representatives when they pander to specific groups. If the Republican party will operate on the idea of "If you build it, they will come," we will ATTRACT voters in every state, instead of pandering in hopes of buying votes. As Obama is finding out right now, payback, exposed, creates outrage.
m| 1.31.09 @ 10:50PM
Well,then,Jeremiah,I guess you agree the party establishments unswerving support for open borders and amnesty to please NE big business interests was a truly historic act of suicidal stupidity?
If Obam and the Dems pass amnesty(#6 or is it #7?) TX goes blue and every Dem prez candidate starts with the 3 biggest(electoral vote) states already in the win column.
The GOP is already dead,and frankly,it doesn't even deserve a decent funeral,just throw the rotting corpse in a hole and toss in the dirt.
malm| 2.1.09 @ 11:37AM
Look m, plenty of people in the northeast are distressed about destructive immigration. But, still they can't pull a Republican lever. part of it is the 270 strategy. Poeple in New England are getting quietly, and indeed not so quietly fed up with public sector unions. Other issues also are out there, not to exploit, but to help people counter with a positive for the needs of the people government. But bring on the party of the preacher man and the GOP is dead before they start. Women in particular are a problem. Limbaugh is a votekiller with this group. Do a focus group of northeast women. Have Michael Steele address them and yes leave the hardcore right wing stuff out of it. He will do well and score well with them. Then bring on Rush for 30 seconds. He will destroy all the good will. Style over substance, well both kill the GOP in this neck of the woods, and so it will some day in the South. Movement conservatives do just that move on, and let the GOP will give the USA the second party it needs to defeat the insane, hateful, meglalomaniacs of the DPPM (democrat party political machine) .BE patriotic movement conservatives admit you a not capable of defeating the democrats, form a nice little party for true believers, and let the real Republicans do the job of saving America from catastrophy.
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The Christmas Card Blog » Blog Archive » Conservatives Rejected By The Party? - Spect links to this page. Here’s an excerpt: