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Jim quotes Matthew Continetti as writing that, "The trick is to finance the welfare state in a way that allows the maximum possible amount of individual liberty and economic growth." Continetti must have been reading Bruce Bartlett, formerly of the Reagan White House, who made a similar point in the Politico the other day, but took it a step further by arguing that conservatives should focus on advocating better ways to raise taxes:

I think conservatives would better spend their diminished political capital figuring out how to finance the welfare state at the least cost to the economy and individual liberty, rather than fighting a losing battle to slash popular spending programs. But this will require them to accept the necessity of higher revenues.

It is simply unrealistic to think that tax cuts will continue to be a viable political strategy when the budget deficit exceeds $1 trillion, as it will this year. Nor is it realistic to think that taxes can be kept at 19 percent of GDP when spending is projected to grow by about 50 percent of GDP over the next generation, according to both the Congressional Budget Office and the Government Accountability Office. And that’s without any new spending programs being enacted. 

If conservatives refuse to participate in the debate over how revenues will be raised, then liberals will do it on their own, which will likely give us much higher tax rates and a tax system that is more harmful to growth than necessary to fund the government. Instead of opposing any tax hike, I think it makes more sense for conservatives to figure out how best to raise the additional revenue that will be raised in any event.

This, keep in mind, is from the man who wrote the book Imposter: How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy, which is a blistering critique of Bush's spending policies. In it, he calls the Medicare prescription drug bill "the worst piece of legislation ever enacted." But remember that one of the main arguments made to woo conservative support for the bill at the time was that if conservatives didn't support the law, that Democrats would come in and we'd end up with something much worse. Well, guess what? The bill passed, it did absolutely nothing to close the gap that Republicans face on health care issues with the Democrats, and now Democrats are back in charge and poised to have the government takeover the health-care system. I imagine the type of "conservative" tax increases that Bartlett has in mind would have about the same effect.

View all comments (3) | Leave a comment

JP| 1.29.09 @ 12:57PM

Phillip,
In the long-run I'm not sure that our welfare state is financially sustainable -even at its current level. One of the benefits that President Reagan, Clinton, and Bush43 enjoyed was demographics. The Babay-Boomers approached thier peak earning years under Reagan, reached thier peak earning potential under Clinton, and have now as a group passed it. The large amount of Boomer wealth creation allowed the huge expansion of the welfare state without being a huge drag on our economy. Globalizing the economy allowed debt to be internationalized, and the growth of our GDP from $2 trillion to $13 trillion gave creditors confidence that all of that debt could be paid off.

In July of 2007 the first Boomer officially retired (a California school teacher). This number of retirees will accelerate rapidly the next 4-8 years and thereafter. Baby Boomers, the wealthiest demographic group in the world, will no longer be generating tax revenue but consuming it. Thier hard hit mutual funds, 401ks, pensions, and IRAs will be spent quickly as they retreat to golf courses, gated retirement communities, and eventually nursing homes.

Behind the Baby Boomers sits younger generations that are less wealthy and less populous. How so many economists are missing this is a mystery. The Welfare State can only be supported by a society that is willing to have many children.

danny| 1.29.09 @ 1:48PM

jp
not only am i not sure our welfare state can not be sustained, i am absolutely certain of it. because of the advent of the pill my wife and i produced half the offspring our parents did and our offspring are now in the process of producing even less. i am by nature an optimistic person, but it appears to me that we are in a death spiral here. by the way, i live in a gated community with a great golf course and enjoying every minute of it. trusting god to sustain us as he always has.

sidnee| 12.12.09 @ 12:39PM

jack wills
ugg new arrivals

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More Blog Posts by Philip Klein

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