Jim quotes
Matthew Continetti as writing that, "The trick is to finance
the welfare state in a way that allows the maximum possible
amount of individual liberty and economic growth." Continetti
must have been reading Bruce Bartlett, formerly of the Reagan
White House, who made
a similar point in the Politico the other day, but
took it a step further by arguing that conservatives should focus
on advocating better ways to raise taxes:
I think conservatives would better spend their diminished
political capital figuring out how to finance the welfare state
at the least cost to the economy and individual liberty, rather
than fighting a losing battle to slash popular spending
programs. But this will require them to accept the necessity of
higher revenues.
It is simply unrealistic to think that tax cuts will continue
to be a viable political strategy when the budget deficit
exceeds $1 trillion, as it will this year. Nor is it realistic
to think that taxes can be kept at 19 percent of GDP when
spending is projected to grow by about 50 percent of GDP over
the next generation, according to both the Congressional Budget
Office and the Government Accountability Office. And that’s
without any new spending programs being enacted.
If conservatives refuse to participate in the debate over how
revenues will be raised, then liberals will do it on their own,
which will likely give us much higher tax rates and a tax
system that is more harmful to growth than necessary to fund
the government. Instead of opposing any tax hike, I think it
makes more sense for conservatives to figure out how best to
raise the additional revenue that will be raised in any event.
This, keep in mind, is from the man who wrote the
bookImposter: How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and
Betrayed the Reagan Legacy, which is a blistering critique
of Bush's spending policies. In it, he calls the Medicare
prescription drug bill "the worst piece of legislation ever
enacted." But remember that one of the main arguments made to woo
conservative support for the bill at the time was that if
conservatives didn't support the law, that Democrats would come
in and we'd end up with something much worse. Well, guess what?
The bill passed, it did absolutely nothing to close the gap that
Republicans face on health care issues with the Democrats, and
now Democrats are back in charge and poised to have the
government takeover the health-care system. I imagine the type of
"conservative" tax increases that Bartlett has in mind would have
about the same effect.
Phillip,
In the long-run I'm not sure that our welfare state is
financially sustainable -even at its current level. One of the
benefits that President Reagan, Clinton, and Bush43 enjoyed was
demographics. The Babay-Boomers approached thier peak earning
years under Reagan, reached thier peak earning potential under
Clinton, and have now as a group passed it. The large amount of
Boomer wealth creation allowed the huge expansion of the welfare
state without being a huge drag on our economy. Globalizing the
economy allowed debt to be internationalized, and the growth of
our GDP from $2 trillion to $13 trillion gave creditors
confidence that all of that debt could be paid off.
In July of 2007 the first Boomer officially retired (a California
school teacher). This number of retirees will accelerate rapidly
the next 4-8 years and thereafter. Baby Boomers, the wealthiest
demographic group in the world, will no longer be generating tax
revenue but consuming it. Thier hard hit mutual funds, 401ks,
pensions, and IRAs will be spent quickly as they retreat to golf
courses, gated retirement communities, and eventually nursing
homes.
Behind the Baby Boomers sits younger generations that are less
wealthy and less populous. How so many economists are missing
this is a mystery. The Welfare State can only be supported by a
society that is willing to have many children.
danny| 1.29.09 @ 1:48PM
jp
not only am i not sure our welfare state can not be sustained, i
am absolutely certain of it. because of the advent of the pill my
wife and i produced half the offspring our parents did and our
offspring are now in the process of producing even less. i am by
nature an optimistic person, but it appears to me that we are in
a death spiral here. by the way, i live in a gated community with
a great golf course and enjoying every minute of it. trusting god
to sustain us as he always has.
JP| 1.29.09 @ 12:57PM
Phillip,
In the long-run I'm not sure that our welfare state is financially sustainable -even at its current level. One of the benefits that President Reagan, Clinton, and Bush43 enjoyed was demographics. The Babay-Boomers approached thier peak earning years under Reagan, reached thier peak earning potential under Clinton, and have now as a group passed it. The large amount of Boomer wealth creation allowed the huge expansion of the welfare state without being a huge drag on our economy. Globalizing the economy allowed debt to be internationalized, and the growth of our GDP from $2 trillion to $13 trillion gave creditors confidence that all of that debt could be paid off.
In July of 2007 the first Boomer officially retired (a California school teacher). This number of retirees will accelerate rapidly the next 4-8 years and thereafter. Baby Boomers, the wealthiest demographic group in the world, will no longer be generating tax revenue but consuming it. Thier hard hit mutual funds, 401ks, pensions, and IRAs will be spent quickly as they retreat to golf courses, gated retirement communities, and eventually nursing homes.
Behind the Baby Boomers sits younger generations that are less wealthy and less populous. How so many economists are missing this is a mystery. The Welfare State can only be supported by a society that is willing to have many children.
danny| 1.29.09 @ 1:48PM
jp
not only am i not sure our welfare state can not be sustained, i am absolutely certain of it. because of the advent of the pill my wife and i produced half the offspring our parents did and our offspring are now in the process of producing even less. i am by nature an optimistic person, but it appears to me that we are in a death spiral here. by the way, i live in a gated community with a great golf course and enjoying every minute of it. trusting god to sustain us as he always has.
sidnee| 12.12.09 @ 12:39PM
jack wills
ugg new arrivals