If the second-term congresswoman from Hudson Valley actually ends
up taking Hillary Clinton's Senate seat, she is about as
conservative a choice as could realistically be hoped for. She is
to the right of her Democratic Party on guns, on middle-class tax
cuts, on amnesty for illegal immigrants, and on fiscal policy. A
Gillibrand selection would signify that New York Gov. David
Patterson wants to diversify the Democratic ticket going into
2010, shore up upstate New York, and protect the new senator from
any midterm backlash against President Obama.
The downside for Republicans, obviously, is that Gillibrand would
conceivably be harder to beat in an election than Caroline
Kennedy (though as a Blue Dog, she could be vulnerable to a
primary challenge from her left). It's also possible that not
having to represent a traditionally Republican district would
free her to move to the left herself. On the other hand, it
raises Republican chances of winning back her House seat.