Back when Barack Obama began publicly flirting with the idea of running in the fall of 2008, I wrestled with both sides of the argument, and noted that the downside of not running would be the Matt Leinart (not striking while the iron is hot) syndrome. So I don't necessarily disagree with Stacy, though I think challenging Lisa Murkowski in 2010, while it would be a risk, would have upside in terms of staying in the national spotlight via the Senate and gaining more understanding of policy, should she wait until 2016. But whenever she runs, she'd have to do the following to become a viable conservative leader:
-- Show that she's a conservative on more than social issues and gun rights, and actually convey an appreciation for conservative economic philosophy (empty platitudes about "putting government back on the side of the people" that could easily be uttered by John Edwards, do not count).
-- Get through a tough interview without embarassing herself.
-- Display a grasp of important foreign and domestic issues.
-- Demonstrate governing competence and accomplishments (without having to lie about the "Bridge to Nowhere" or exaggerate her record as Mayor of Wassila).
If she can do that by 2012 and combine it with her star power, she'll be a great asset to the conservative cause. Otherwise, let's hold off on the Reagan and Thatcher comparisons.
Captain America| 12.23.08 @ 3:06PM
Oh, Philip, "there you go again."
The campaign for 2012 begins in 2010. Great timing for Gov. Palin and her many devoted followers.
Calling Gov. Palin a liar is a big stretch. Remind me: is there presently a "Bridge to Nowhere?" Of course there isn't.
As for experience, how different is Gov. Palin's portfolio from W's and Bill Clinton's when they sought the presidency? You know, the two most recent presidents who were reelected.
As for comparisons, you really need to take that matter up with those who are in a better position to make them: Michael Reagan (son of Ronald) and John O'Sullivan. For starters, just how does your relationship with Thatcher and RR compare?
Bob| 12.23.08 @ 3:28PM
I'm usually ready to jump on posts by RSM or Quin, but this? I agree with every word you've said. Be careful, they are soon going to call you a lib..... Imagine, an objective analysis with intellectual honesty here at AmSpec.... Hmmmmm...
Chris| 12.23.08 @ 4:10PM
Finally a voice of reason at AmSpec! Frankly I am baffled at the blatant cheerleaderism of certain pundits. The cult of Obama has been surpassed by the Cult of the Sarracuda. If Palin can win the senate seat in Alaska, then we'll talk....
Locomotive Breath| 12.23.08 @ 4:34PM
"Get through a tough interview without embarassing herself."
Impossible if the person doing the interview wants to embarrass you.
Robert Stacy McCain| 12.23.08 @ 5:05PM
I think you make a good point, Phil, about the Senate race. If she wants to put off another White House run, the Senate contest will give her a shot at the national stage, but -- but -- I fear that Democratic activists would do all the mischief in their power to spoil that for Palin. Indeed, there would even be a heavy risk in her seeking re-election as governor in 2010, since she would almost certainly be required to foreswear any interest in a 2012 presidential campaign. As to your other requirements, I think the most important is for her to learn to "speak Austrian" in economics.
Bob| 12.23.08 @ 5:07PM
Locomotive --
"Impossible if the person doing the interview wants to embarrass you."
O'Reilly and Wallace tried pretty hard with Obama and failed to nudge him. It can be done of someone is smart and knowledgeable enough.
daboss| 12.23.08 @ 5:13PM
Win a senate seat? Are you serious ...since when has a good executive come from the ranks of those folks (mccain, binden, clinton)... give me a governor anytime, any day.
Last I heard running a state was a pretty good accomplishment. Not all can do it. Look at Ohio – we’ve had 2 geniuses in Taft and Strickland.
Give me Palin, Jindal, Romney and I'll be happy!
It’s time to be honest on both sides … no one (unless they have served as an executive of the state department – and that’s a stretch too) has foreign policy experience. Sitting on a committee surely does not give you it. Being 1 of 100 does not either. Nor does reading the NYT or Washington Post.
Maybe Condi in 2012?
Captain America| 12.23.08 @ 5:23PM
There must be something in the water at AmSpec.
I repeat: how different were the portfolios of the two most recent presidents (Clinton and W.) from that of Gov. Palin?
To wit: no response from RSM and Klein {crickets}.
As for the foolhardy diversion to the Senate. You have got to be kidding. In the Senate, Palin would be a junior member in a cast of 100. In a vastly minority party with precious little clout.
In the Senate, politicians (specially those in the minority) are persuaded to take compromising positions on major issue.
Once again, RSM and Klein, did W. first hold a senate position? Did Bill Clinton? Ronald Reagan?
You folks must sell snake water for a living.
Philip Klein| 12.23.08 @ 7:36PM
Mr. America,
Bill Clinton had been governor for 12 years and W had been governor for 6 before becoming president --in both cases more than Palin right now -- and neither was a particularly successful president anyway, despite being reelected. Clinton wasn't able to do much to advance liberalism, and Bush represented a setback for conservatism. The Bush experience kind of gets to my point. Conservatives got behind somebody who they identified with culturally, who the liberal media hated, and who was electable -- even though he didn't have much of a proven track record or command of the issues. Do you really think conservatives need another Bush presidency? If so, I don't think we're ever going to agree about Palin.
As it happens, I'm perfectly willing to wait and see about Palin. But I don't see anything in her performance as governor or as a VP candidate that makes me believe she has what it takes to be a transformational conservative leader along the lines of Reagan or Thatcher.
Ran| 12.23.08 @ 9:16PM
PK, RSM,
I see it differently: Can Freedom wait?
Whether Gov. Palin wins or loses the nomination, her platform and the values she represents puts those into the debate, which will be a stark contrast to the model hailed by the Prophet Obama and the girlieboys of the RINO wing. His/there's can't work. There will be a need for "change", finally.
Whoever offers the antidote stands a decent chance, even someone as imperfect as Governor Palin. Nay, especially someone as out-of-the network and unpolished as Palin. The Blojgo Affair is showing everyone just how normal the incest and thuggery is in "Hope and Change" network.
The Left will attack Sarah the person, though I rather think she's up for it. The real battle will be within the Republican camp, with competition for the Conservative mantle of Reagan: Freedom and free markets vs massive gov't spending and fascistic meddling; personal responsibility vs central planning and nanny-meds; energy growth and independence vs the tyranny of "environmental policy"...
There is far more than simply the First and Second Amendments at stake here: The Constitution, the Courts, the entire Bill of Rights. There will be vast amounts of legislation to undo; A health-care market to re-build; G-d only knows what else. Palin in the mix - win or lose the nomination - will help to make the case. If Sarah won and ran on a ticket with, say, Ken Blackwell... Can you imagine how the Dinos will go totally nuts? Can you see any other sort of ticket dragging Conservatives back to the polls?
Philip Klein's point about transformational leadership is too important to ignore. Again, I see it differently: The arrival of Palin has motivated me, for one, to get personally involved in local Republican and Conservative action. [I'm fortunately not alone.] Point being, the transformation may not come from a 'Leader' per se. That role was Reagan's and Thatcher's. Governor Palin is a product of their leadership, as am I. This transformational leadership [to rescue a phrase corrupted by the Prophet Obama] must come from the base upwards.
Reagan and Thatcher didn't just pass the torch; they've lit a fire. Drill, Baby, Drill. Burn, Baby, Burn.
Cherubim| 12.23.08 @ 11:26PM
While running for President, John Edwards was the only candidate who dared to tell the American public the truth about the only "real scandal" revealed this year:
In this video, John Edwards explains that the problem is "corrupt capitalism",
you know that, "other America".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT780q7-GiE
Captain America| 12.24.08 @ 1:06AM
Philip,
I didn't realize there exists a magic incubator with an alarm that informs governors when they are seasoned enough to run for president. If so, Mitt Romney should be so informed as he only served a single term as Gov. Palin will by 2010.
You suggest that being reelected as president is not significant. I beg to differ. Being reelected is like a referendum on the previous term, and W. being reelected while waging an unpopular war in Iraq was huge.
I also don't buy your free association between the now largely unpopular W. with a future President Palin. "Do you really think conservatives need another Bush presidency?" Inform be how you got there (W.) from here (Gov. Palin), because I don't see how you reach such a conclusion.
Are you predicting President Palin being a future set back for conservatism? If so, I'll contact you for predictions on upcoming football scores when I reach Vegas.
Funny you should mention not seeing a transformative leader in Gov. Palin, they didn't see one in the Iron Lady beforehand either. I don't recall Ronald Reagan being labeled a "transformative leader" before ascending to president.
You are welcome to wait on Sarah while the train passes you by.
bluecollarbytes| 12.24.08 @ 5:01PM
Nothing wrong in questioning Sarah Palin's credentials to become "worthy" of a presidential run. Hopefully a harder look is also taken towards the Huckster-that small PopMedia figure with personal grudges that fester, who openly cloaks himself in born-again Christianity when a Mormon threatens his position in the race.
Romney was probably the most 'qualified' in either field this last go round, but of course he's a Mormon, isn't he?
I see disunity among Republicans for years to come. but have no fear, I have no 3rd eye, just my pedestrian observational skills.