In his fine new
column, Terry Jeffrey is kinder than I would be to Bill
Kristol's suggestion
that it is good politics for conservatives to bankrupt the
country by expanded unfunded entitlements programs. But he does a
good job of pointing out the real harm to the country that will
be done if the Republicans continue to succeed at growing
entitlements while failing to rein them in.
But even as a narrow political point, I think Kristol is wrong.
Yes, it's true that trying to restrain the growth of Medicare
spending was unpopular in 1995-96, just as the prescription drug
benefit was popular in 2002-03. The former helped reelect
Democrat Bill Clinton while the latter helped reelect Republican
George W. Bush. Yet look at the longer term picture: The
Republicans controlled Congress for 12 years after their
Medicare-cutting gambit. They controlled Congress for three years
and the White House for five after Medicare Part D. Was big
government conservatism really the path to the promised land?
Similarly, the work congressional Republicans did in controlling
spending during the 1990s -- yes, with the at least partial
cooperation of Bill Clinton -- produced a budget surplus and
paved the way for a Republican president to cut taxes. The
explosive growth of government under Bush and the expired GOP
Congress of the past decade enlarged budget deficits that paved
the way for a Democratic president to come in and raise taxes.
The Medicare prescription drug benefit may be the mechanism
through which Democrats introduce price controls over
pharmaceuticals or further expand federal control over our health
care system. Not only is big government conservatism
constitutionally, morally, and economically wrong, it will prove
long-term political failure as well because it enters Republicans
into a bidding war against the Democrats they cannot win.
Yes, it's true that trying to restrain the growth of Medicare
spending was unpopular in 1995-96, just as the prescription drug
benefit was popular in 2002-03. The former helped reelect
Democrat Bill Clinton while the latter helped reelect Republican
George W. Bush.
I think it's extremely unclear how the re-election of Bush was
aided by the prescription drug benefit. To the extent is
alienated conservative voters, it may have been a net (albeit
very small) negative. Even without factoring in Kerry’s manifest
deficiencies, I’d argue Bush was re-elected simply because the
naïve and trusting American people expected him to efficiently
conclude the war in Iraq. When he fumbled away that trust both he
and the GOP were goners.
Bob| 12.10.08 @ 3:27PM
If you are really serious about making government smaller, please
be honest about cutting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security
as that represents over half of the budget. Assuming
conservatives won't cut defense spending, there is only 18% of
the budget for all other spending.
The fact is that without a plan to reign in the big spending
categories, Kristol is absolutely right. I've heard no one hear
addressing how they would do that.
Paul E. More| 12.10.08 @ 4:30PM
There are ways to reduce some government costs. One would be to
enforce the law against employing illegal aliens causing them to
self deport. Or we could actually begin to deport larger numbers
of illegal aliens. This would reduce medical costs in general,
including some direct government spending but also reduce some of
the increased costs of medical care, as part of the inflation in
such costs is due to non-paying illegals getting “free” health
care.
Another way would be to reduce the US troop presence overseas,
for example in South Korea and in Europe. We could also withdraw
US troop presence in other far flung areas, including the
Balkans.
There are some small technical steps that could be taken to
reduce costs or at least growth of costs in entitlements. These
wouldn’t be popular in the abstract, but they would be compared
to shy high FICA taxes or national bankruptcy.
Note also that Kristol wasn’t arguing for just maintaining the
current size of government, but increasing its size.
The only way conservatives can win national elections is to have
a constituency that is large enough and tied into the private
sector to balance the left wing and its constituency of
government workers and tax consumers. Conservatives can do that
if they tie government policies aimed at protecting a middle and
upper middle class to the private sector. In other words,
government policy must be aimed at benefiting the voters most
likely to vote for conservatives. This can be done by adopting
policies such as trade protection, immigration restriction and a
realist foreign policy, all of which would benefit a middle class
and upper middle class constituency. All of these policies are
opposed by Kristol and most Neocons as well as the Left and both
the Left and the Neocons support Open Borders, “Free” Trade and
Global interventionism based on abstractions and not narrow
national interests in foreign policy.
If you support Kristol’s agenda, why not vote for the Democrats
like Kristol’s favorite Democrat, Joe Lieberman?
Bob| 12.10.08 @ 5:19PM
Paul, great response. I would cut Medicare and Social Security by
raising the age and means testing. In addition, as you, I'd
reduce the troop presence overseas and not give free health care
to illegals. I would also not automatically give citizenship to
people who were born here by parents who were here illegally.
Also, getting rid of the neocons interventionist policy.
That said, I'd also insure that the government does NOT intervene
on things like abortion and gay marriage which are religious in
nature. It makes little sense to have a philosophy of small
government unless you are consistent on all accounts.
I will no longer support unknowledgeable and incompetent
candidates notwithstanding their party affiliation. That's why I
could not vote for McCain after he chose Palin. Competence is
more important than philosophy.
Paul E. More| 12.10.08 @ 6:06PM
Bob,
On social issues, as much as possible, why not adopt a state by
state approach. Let the states adopt what policies they want on
abortion, gay marriage (as long as that doesn’t entail imposing
it on other states) etc.
This would drive these issues out of the national debate and let
the national debate focus on national issues like immigration and
trade policy as well as foreign policy. Left wing regions could
have left wing social policy, moderate and right wing regions can
have different policies.
Getting the national government out of these social issues as
much as possible is another reason for supporting smaller
government.
R. Dittmar| 12.10.08 @ 12:52PM
Yes, it's true that trying to restrain the growth of Medicare spending was unpopular in 1995-96, just as the prescription drug benefit was popular in 2002-03. The former helped reelect Democrat Bill Clinton while the latter helped reelect Republican George W. Bush.
I think it's extremely unclear how the re-election of Bush was aided by the prescription drug benefit. To the extent is alienated conservative voters, it may have been a net (albeit very small) negative. Even without factoring in Kerry’s manifest deficiencies, I’d argue Bush was re-elected simply because the naïve and trusting American people expected him to efficiently conclude the war in Iraq. When he fumbled away that trust both he and the GOP were goners.
Bob| 12.10.08 @ 3:27PM
If you are really serious about making government smaller, please be honest about cutting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security as that represents over half of the budget. Assuming conservatives won't cut defense spending, there is only 18% of the budget for all other spending.
The fact is that without a plan to reign in the big spending categories, Kristol is absolutely right. I've heard no one hear addressing how they would do that.
Paul E. More| 12.10.08 @ 4:30PM
There are ways to reduce some government costs. One would be to enforce the law against employing illegal aliens causing them to self deport. Or we could actually begin to deport larger numbers of illegal aliens. This would reduce medical costs in general, including some direct government spending but also reduce some of the increased costs of medical care, as part of the inflation in such costs is due to non-paying illegals getting “free” health care.
Another way would be to reduce the US troop presence overseas, for example in South Korea and in Europe. We could also withdraw US troop presence in other far flung areas, including the Balkans.
There are some small technical steps that could be taken to reduce costs or at least growth of costs in entitlements. These wouldn’t be popular in the abstract, but they would be compared to shy high FICA taxes or national bankruptcy.
Note also that Kristol wasn’t arguing for just maintaining the current size of government, but increasing its size.
The only way conservatives can win national elections is to have a constituency that is large enough and tied into the private sector to balance the left wing and its constituency of government workers and tax consumers. Conservatives can do that if they tie government policies aimed at protecting a middle and upper middle class to the private sector. In other words, government policy must be aimed at benefiting the voters most likely to vote for conservatives. This can be done by adopting policies such as trade protection, immigration restriction and a realist foreign policy, all of which would benefit a middle class and upper middle class constituency. All of these policies are opposed by Kristol and most Neocons as well as the Left and both the Left and the Neocons support Open Borders, “Free” Trade and Global interventionism based on abstractions and not narrow national interests in foreign policy.
If you support Kristol’s agenda, why not vote for the Democrats like Kristol’s favorite Democrat, Joe Lieberman?
Bob| 12.10.08 @ 5:19PM
Paul, great response. I would cut Medicare and Social Security by raising the age and means testing. In addition, as you, I'd reduce the troop presence overseas and not give free health care to illegals. I would also not automatically give citizenship to people who were born here by parents who were here illegally. Also, getting rid of the neocons interventionist policy.
That said, I'd also insure that the government does NOT intervene on things like abortion and gay marriage which are religious in nature. It makes little sense to have a philosophy of small government unless you are consistent on all accounts.
I will no longer support unknowledgeable and incompetent candidates notwithstanding their party affiliation. That's why I could not vote for McCain after he chose Palin. Competence is more important than philosophy.
Paul E. More| 12.10.08 @ 6:06PM
Bob,
On social issues, as much as possible, why not adopt a state by state approach. Let the states adopt what policies they want on abortion, gay marriage (as long as that doesn’t entail imposing it on other states) etc.
This would drive these issues out of the national debate and let the national debate focus on national issues like immigration and trade policy as well as foreign policy. Left wing regions could have left wing social policy, moderate and right wing regions can have different policies.
Getting the national government out of these social issues as much as possible is another reason for supporting smaller government.