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Chambliss and the Growth Factor

In analyzing Sen. Saxby Chambliss' impressive victory in Georgia -- he defeated Democrat Jim Martin by more than 300,000 votes in Tuesday's runoff -- it is important to understand where that Republican margin comes from. While liberals will try to explain Martin's defeat as a product of retrograde rural backlash, the decisive factor for Chambliss was his large margins in the prosperous, fast-growing suburban and exurban counties around Atlanta.

As usual for Republicans in Georgia, Chambliss piled up huge margins in the mega-suburban counties of Cobb  and Gwinnett, beating Martin by nearly 50,000 votes in each. But Chambliss also piled up a combined margin of nearly 150,000 votes in nine "outer ring" exurban counties. Here are those counties, showing Chambliss' margin and each county's population growth rate (April 2000-July 2006) according to the Census Bureau:

County... Margin...Growth
Barrow......7,184.......38.1%
Bartow.....10,948.....20.1%
Carroll.......6,642......23.0%
Cherokee...33,274......37.6%
Coweta......15,002......29.2%
Forsyth......30,624.....53.4%
Hall...........20,625.....24.4%
Paulding ....12,795.....48.9%
Walton.......12,681....30.8%

Please note that the margins are based on results available at 8 a.m., when 97% of precincts statewide were reporting, and the vote is not complete in all counties.

(Cross-posted at The Other McCain.)

Comments

st louie mo| 12.3.08 @ 9:32AM

I'm still waiting for the DNC announcement contesting the results. Why this is a cliff hanger in Franken model.

Thinking Bulldog| 12.3.08 @ 12:30PM

The remaining precincts are almost certainly in Fulton County and in the City of Atlanta in particular. These south Atlanta precincts are overwhelmingly democrat and usually aren't sorted out for days after an election no matter what the turnout.

biniki| 8.28.09 @ 10:45PM

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