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The Spectacle Blog

Iran Moves Closer To Nuclear Weapon

By Philip Klein on 11.20.08 @ 8:40AM

With Americans distracted by their own economic problems and the media swooning over Barack Obama, we learn:

Iran has now produced roughly enough nuclear material to make, with added purification, a single atom bomb, according to nuclear experts analyzing the latest report from global atomic inspectors.

The figures detailing Iran’s progress were contained in a routine update on Wednesday from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has been conducting inspections of the country’s main nuclear plant at Natanz. The report concluded that as of early this month, Iran had made 630 kilograms, or about 1,390 pounds, of low-enriched uranium.

Several experts said that was enough for a bomb, but they cautioned that the milestone was mostly symbolic, because Iran would have to take additional steps. Not only would it have to breach its international agreements and kick out the inspectors, but it would also have to further purify the fuel and put it into a warhead design — a technical advance that Western experts are unsure Iran has yet achieved.

As I reported earlier this week, Israeli officials are saying that they are prepared to do what it takes to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions, and this has now been more explicitly corroborated by other reports. One of the early challenges of the Obama administration will be to determine how it would respond to any preemtive action by Israel, including any likely consequences of such action. Or, alternatively, what diplomatic tools he would use to prevent Iran from making the political decision to kick out inspectors and go independent, at which point Iran would possibly be able to build a weapon within a year. Personally, as an American, I'm not comfortable delegating this job to the Israelis, but I don't view it as feasible that Obama would launch a preemtive strike should it come to that. Either way, can we now finally discredit last year's national intellegence estimate that claimed Iran halted its nuclear program in 2003?

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dijetlo| 11.20.08 @ 1:12PM

"Several experts said that was enough for a bomb, but they cautioned that the milestone was mostly symbolic, because Iran would have to take additional steps. Not only would it have to breach its international agreements and kick out the inspectors, but it would also have to further purify the fuel and put it into a warhead design "
The low enriched uranium is the fuel for their nuclear reactor program:
" can we now finally discredit last year's national intelligence estimate "
The Estimate made the point that Iran had given up (at least for the moment) its plan to build a nuclear weapon. This article actually supports that position, going so far as to state that the amount of low grade fuel is "symbolic" and that no high grade material that would actually be used for a weapon has been produced, nor is Iran attempting to produce it.
When Iran ejects the inspectors, then you can worry about an Iranian nuke. Until then, complaining they are developing the nuclear reactor they have permission by claiming they are in fact, at this moment, making a bomb, just makes you look foolish.
You could claim that you know better than the inspectors and the CIA, but after Iraq I don't think that position is going to get a lot of traction beyond the lunatic fringe.

anon in tx| 11.20.08 @ 1:41PM

> possibly be able to build a weapon within a year
once you've got the material, a uranium bomb requires no real skills: 3 rings and a slug - 3months at the most and, in spite of what dijetlo says, HEU is not required (a salted slug works wonders).

dijetlo| 11.20.08 @ 1:58PM

>>HEU is not required (a salted slug works wonders).

dijetlo| 11.20.08 @ 1:59PM

Sorry for the double post.
Magical "salted slugs" notwithstanding, the people who monitor nuclear proliferation don't agree with "Anon from Tx".
Forgive me if I side with them, but they have all that experience and all those degrees.