That's how
Ross Douthat is betting. In response to cautiously favorable
comments about Obama's foreign-policy feints by
Jim Geraghty and
Michael Goldfarb, he argues:
I suspect we'll be seeing quite a few comments along these
lines as the Obama Administration proceeds. Of the three legs
of the modern right-of-center stool - social conservatives,
small-governmenteers, and foreign-policy hawks - it's the hawks
who almost always have the least to fear from savvy Democratic
Administrations. And Barack Obama is nothing if not savvy.
Here's a fearless prediction: On an awful lot of issues, the
Obama foreign policy will end cutting to the right of Bill
Clinton's foreign policy, which was already more center-left
than left. Even with the GOP brand in the toilet, Republicans
are still trusted as much or more than Dems on foreign policy,
mostly for somewhat nebulous "toughness" reasons. So why give
the Right a chance to play what's just about its only winning
card, when you can satisfy your base with a phased withdrawal
from Iraq that's scheduled to happen anyway while waxing
hawkish on Pakistan, Afghanistan ... and who knows, maybe Iran
as well? (I have a sneaking suspicion that a President Obama
will be slightly more likely to authorize airstrikes
against Iran than a President McCain would have been.)
Meanwhile, on detainee policy, wiretapping, etc. you can earn
plaudits from liberals for showily abandoning the worst
excesses of the Bush era, while actually holding on to most of
the post-9/11 powers that the Bushies claimed. Obama already
made fans of
Niall Ferguson and
Eli Lake; by 2012, I wouldn't be surprised if he's
converted Max Boot as well.
And with his right flank safely guarded (assuming, of course,
that Afghanistan or Pakistan or Iran doesn't become his
Administration's Iraq), he'll have that much more political for
the big-ticket goals that will guarantee his place in the
liberal pantheon - universal health care, a New Deal for energy
policy, a succession of young liberal judges who will tilt the
Supreme Court leftward for a generation, etc. Among right-wing
hawks, there will be strange-new-respectful talk about Obama's
centrist instincts, his Scoop Jackson-ish tendencies, his
Reaganesque blend of idealism, pragmatism and strength.
Meanwhile, the rest of the right-wing coalition will be getting
steamrolled.
I think he overstates the case a bit -- I'm sure Max Boot would
have liked the McCain administration's Iran policy better and
much of Obama's hawkery is likely to be spent on humanitarian
interventions -- I suspect he's closer to the mark than my old
boss
Scott McConnell, who is optimistic that Obama will represent
a clean break from Bush on foreign policy. The most thoughtful of
the Obamacons -- that is to say, the ones who weren't just voting
for fancy book writin' and against "You betcha!" -- were realists
or noninterventionists who opposed the Iraq war and any sequels
its authors might be planning. If personnel is policy, the last
few days of rumors and announcements suggest they are going to be
disappointed.
