Barack Obama's vague campaign of Hope and Change has created
contradictory expectations for his administration.
Rasmussen Reports found that 61 percent of Republican voters
expect their taxes will go up, compared to just 17 percent of
Democrats. While 39 percent of white voters expect to pay higher
taxes under Obama, 39 percent of blacks say they'll pay lower
taxes.
Obama's repeated promise that 95 percent of Americans will
receive tax cuts -- at the expense of the richest 5 percent --
created an unusual perception: A tax-cutter who's also a
redistributionist. If he fails to keep that promise, Republicans
will batter him as a liar. If he keeps the promise, however,
Obama will add to a budget deficit already swollen by $1.1
trillion in bailouts (with perhaps more bailouts to come). And
Obama's budget math won't benefit from any Laffer-curve effect,
since his neo-Keynesian formula is the exact opposite of the
reductions of top marginal rates favored by supply-siders.
Karl
Rove noted today that the self-reported ideological
affliation of the electorate remains unchanged from 2004 --
34% say they're conservative, 21% liberal and 45% moderate.
Nonetheless, they elected as president the most liberal member of
the Senate, with Obama getting the votes of 20% of self-described
"conservatives" and 60% of "moderates."
What does this mean? It means that two decades of rhetorical
fudging and policy incoherence have obscured the meaning of our
political lexicon. George Bush the elder promised a "kinder,
gentler" conservatism, raised taxes and signed onto a
minimum-wage increase. Bill Clinton cleverly (and duplicitously)
"triangulated," promising a middle-class tax cut he never
delivered, vetoing welfare-reform twice before signing it, taking
credit for a balanced budget that was mostly the result of a
reduced military and Republican opposition to his spending
proposals. The "compassionate conservatism" of George W. Bush has
introduced still more confusion. In what sense are the No Child
Left Behind Act and Medicare Part D "conservative" policies?
Considering that the Republican 2008 candidate, John McCain, had
opposed tax cuts, collaborated with Russ Feingold on campaign
finance regulation that helped Democrats achieve a decisive
fundraising advantage, and collaborated with Ted Kennedy on an
amnesty bill that infuriated conservative voters, it isn't hard
to see why Obama so easily veiled his liberalism behind vague
platitudes.
Philip Klein's report from today's gathering of the
conservative movement's senior leadership indicates that these
leaders understand how Republicans have squandered the
ideological clarity of the Reagan era. Obama has succeeded by
inspiring unrealistic notions of what he (or any president) can
accomplish. Mixed messages from Republicans made it easier for
Obama to convince Americans that he is a moderate -- what does
"moderate" mean, if "conservative" has lost its meaning?
Beginning Jan. 20, Obama must stop promising and start
delivering, and with his army of online "progressive" activists
demanding that he and the Democratic Congress enact liberal
policies, what he aims to deliver won't be easily mistaken as
"conservative." Republicans have triangulated themselves into the
wilderness, and they'll stay there a long time, if they support
Obama's agenda.
