Back when I was a student of political science, we spent a lot of
time discussing the bell curve theory of American politics.
The idea was simple. Americans are supposedly arrayed along
an ideological spectrum. The vast majority of voters are in
the center, while small numbers lurk out at the edges. So,
the theory goes, the winning party will be the one that finds a
candidate to plausibly occupy the center position.
I think that theory is out the window.
There is no way rational voters could have looked at the choice
offered by John McCain and Barack Obama and concluded that Barack
was closer to the ideological center than McCain. Obama had
no record of cooperation with Republicans. McCain has
passed major legislative packages with Democrats. Obama has
never broken with his party other than to go left of his
party. McCain has regularly broken with his party to move
in with centrist coalitions.
Yet, McCain was beaten soundly.
I suspect that voters are not really rational centrists.
I think voters are highly emotional and I think they are often
looking for a narrative they can understand. Barack Obama
appealed to both of those things. Disgust with Bush as the
author of a long, expensive Iraq adventure that even if
effective, feels like castor oil going down. Anger at the
economic problems that seem to have no bottom of late. And
the narrative, of course, is the candidate of hope. The one
who can bring us together, heal wounds, and importantly, who is
not a Republican like George W. Bush.
Goodbye bell curve. May political consultants and party
bosses everywhere cut you loose.
