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The End of the Bell Curve Theory of Politics
Back when I was a student of political science, we spent a lot of time discussing the bell curve theory of American politics. The idea was simple. Americans are supposedly arrayed along an ideological spectrum. The vast majority of voters are in the center, while small numbers lurk out at the edges. So, the theory goes, the winning party will be the one that finds a candidate to plausibly occupy the center position.
I think that theory is out the window.
There is no way rational voters could have looked at the choice offered by John McCain and Barack Obama and concluded that Barack was closer to the ideological center than McCain. Obama had no record of cooperation with Republicans. McCain has passed major legislative packages with Democrats. Obama has never broken with his party other than to go left of his party. McCain has regularly broken with his party to move in with centrist coalitions.
Yet, McCain was beaten soundly.
I suspect that voters are not really rational centrists.
I think voters are highly emotional and I think they are often looking for a narrative they can understand. Barack Obama appealed to both of those things. Disgust with Bush as the author of a long, expensive Iraq adventure that even if effective, feels like castor oil going down. Anger at the economic problems that seem to have no bottom of late. And the narrative, of course, is the candidate of hope. The one who can bring us together, heal wounds, and importantly, who is not a Republican like George W. Bush.
Goodbye bell curve. May political consultants and party bosses everywhere cut you loose.
Comments
Leave a Comment
icarus| 11.5.08 @ 6:43PM
You omit a very, very fringe and radical, out of the mainstream element of McCain's campaign that had significant negative impact on the outcome: Sarah Palin. McCain's choice of Palin took him out of the center and over to the tiny end of the bell curve. She's an extremist. So the theory still holds.
Doug Nanney| 11.5.08 @ 6:46PM
You may be right, but couldn't it also mean that because Obama is such a blank slate, his supporters are projecting upon him their own political beliefs? They may honestly believe that Obama will govern from the center because they really don't know the first thing about him.
Jason Smee| 11.5.08 @ 7:14PM
I have to second icarus's thoughts on Palin. Also, remember that we were the party that barely mentioned the economy in September and looked like we have no clue or only want to help out the rich (based on the current state of the economy 250K might as well be a billion dollars to most of the electorate). When 6 out of 10 people picked the economy as the #1 issue while we dragged on about national security, that put us in the far right tail (even as misplaced as their economic ideas are). We need to stop crying and realize that simplistic ideas such as just cutting taxes and entitlements are going to solve everyones problems. Instead we need to look for innovate alternatives or we'll get to relive last night many more times to come.
Spicy Joker| 11.5.08 @ 8:49PM
There is no true center. Most of the people who are in the "center" are people who vote for a candidate based on his personal qualities and the "vibes" he sends out. What Obama has said isn't half as important as the way he said it. The average person in the "center" is in the center precisely because he has few opinions on the issues. Just ask the average non-ideological person who voted for Obama what his views on cap-and-trade are. The truth is that McCain lost because, in spite of his appearances on Letterman and SNL, he was seen by these "centrist" voters as "uncool."
Aurora | 11.6.08 @ 12:52PM
I must disagree about Gov. Palin's being an extremist. There is no evidence from her actual record in office as mayor or government to show that she tried to impose any personal religious beliefs or other extreme positions on Alaskans. Unfortunately for her and for us, her intelligence, character and thus her public persona were deformed and packaged by political opponents. I refer you to Obama supporter Camille Palgia's assessment: Palin's intelligence and insights were left on the interviewers' cutting room floor. Propaganda works.
NN| 11.6.08 @ 2:47PM
Palin's persona was certainly deformed and packaged, but not by her opponents - her selection is one of the most politically cynical even in this cynical age. She appealed, very well, to exactly who she was supposed to appeal to. That doing so was preaching to the choir is a measure of the insecurity of her handlers in the face of the public revulsion of the Bush record. They overreached to folks who would never have voted for Obama anyway, and lost the grasp on people who do prefer rational choices, and are thus suspicious of ideologues.
Obama gave the impression of being more open to different ideas than his opponents. And it's just possible that impression is accurate. This blog entry is certainly correct that something has begun to change in American politics.