Some of the early exit polls suggested that California's
Proposition 8 might lose narrowly (though I see CNN's weighted
exits are now more
consistent with the actual results). With 95 percent of
precincts reporting, it looks all but certain that it is
going to pass despite a Democratic landslide in the state, the
controversy over the initiative's wording, and the fact that
same-sex marriage was already in effect. All along, I suspected
large numbers of black and Hispanic voters would turn out to vote
for Barack Obama and against gay marriage. (Blacks, Hispanics,
and Asians also voted more
pro-life than whites.) With Arizona easily adopting a ballot
initiative that was less broadly worded than the one that failed
in 2006, every state that has gotten to vote on gay marriage has
rejected it -- even blue states and states that have voted for it
more than once. The only states that have adoped this innovation
are the ones where the people can't vote or, in Massachusetts'
case, the politicians won't let them.
