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Turnout Is Fair Play

By W. James Antle, III on 11.4.08 @ 12:05PM

Below Phil notes that some Republicans are holding out hope that the race, like objects in the rearview mirror, is actually closer than it appears. Even the public polling that assumes fairly traditional turnout tends to show a competitive Obama-McCain contest. It's the polls predicting a large uptick in new, particularly young and black, voters -- and an unprecedented Democratic party ID advantage -- that have Obama up big. I'm skeptical that self-identified Democrats will outnumber Republicans by double digits and think some of these popular vote leads are inflated. But like Phil, I think people assuming traditional turnout are also mistaken.

Here's just one small bit of anecdotal evidence. On a train to Baltimore last night, I sat near an elderly black gentleman. He asked me if I had voted yet. I told him I was voting on election day. He said he had already voted and stood in very long lines despite the early voting. He also informed me that he had never voted before. He didn't ask me who I was voting for and I didn't ask him who won his vote. I didn't have to.

View all comments (5) | Leave a comment

WendyG| 11.4.08 @ 1:14PM

Am I the only one who is offended that so many people, apparently, never thought it was important to vote until "one of them" was running? Do people who don't vote have the right to be unhappy with their country? Why is it okay to vote for a black candidate just because he's black, but not okay to vote against a black just because he's black? I understand there have been terrible inequities for blacks, but I cannot respect someone who has a spent a lifetime not voting, but will vote now only because one of his own is running.

midge| 11.4.08 @ 1:56PM

that's probably because you also don't understand what it means to be a minority in this country.

ps, blacks vote democrat 90% of the time anyway, no matter what white guy is running, so chill out on that.

WendyG| 11.4.08 @ 2:36PM

I am a minority. I'm Jewish. And I vote GOP. So I've always bucked the trend, and I'd step on the proverbial broken glass to vote. If I only voted for Jewish GOPers I'd vote maybe once every 20 years. To be an American is to vote.

Spicy Joker| 11.4.08 @ 2:37PM

I went to vote to today. The good news was that the wait was long but not around the block. The bad news was that it was only 9:30.

scott| 11.4.08 @ 2:40PM

Well there aren't that many trains running to Baltimore here in the midwest. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Iowa, have all had years where the presidential vote has been extremely close. Who knows how they will break. If McCain holds FL, VA, NC, & OH (big if but they have all been red under Bush), then McCain needs either PA, MN, or WI, or some combination of IA, CO, & NM. Not the kind of odds you'd prefer but lets not forget that the blue collar voters of Minnesota decided a decade ago that Jesse "The Body" Ventura was a good idea.