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The Dixville Notch Curse

By W. James Antle, III on 11.4.08 @ 1:07PM

Mark Steyn highlights past results in early-voting Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. The little town went for Richard Nixon in 1960, Gerald Ford in 1976, and George H.W. Bush in 1992. In the last, Bill Clinton finished fourth with just three votes, behind Bush, Ross Perot, and Libertarian Andre Marrou. This year, Barack Obama beat John McCain there. Some Steyn readers, clutching at notches as he puts it, think this indicates a Dixville Notch curse where the winner of this town loses the presidential election. I had a different reaction -- Dixville Notch usually votes Republican even in Democratic election cycles and didn't this time.

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WendyG| 11.4.08 @ 1:21PM

It's not a good omen, but that region of the country has turned very, very liberal. I grew up in that region of the country when it was conservative, some years ago. Now granola-heads have moved up there in droves, and the NY/Mass liberals as well. So is Dixville as reliable a sign as it used to be? Maybe, maybe not.

Matthew Vadum| 11.4.08 @ 2:55PM

An interesting point, but then there's the Missouri Bellwether phenomenon. Missouri ALMOST NEVER votes for the loser in a presidential contest. The RealClearPolitics poll average for Missouri is McCain +0.7. See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president./mo/missouri_mccain_vs_obama-545.html.

Dan| 11.4.08 @ 3:37PM

But the last Dem they voted for was Hubert Humphrey in 1968. So let's just say they don't have a good record of picking Dems

W. James Antle III| 11.4.08 @ 4:07PM

Dan, are you talking about Dixville Notch or Missouri? The last Democrat Missouri voted for was Bill Clinton in 1996 and 1992. They last voted for the losing presidential candidate in 1956.